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There’s a lot of football to be played until Black Monday, but a handful of coaches have toasty seats before training camp even starts.
The 2024 NFL season is nearly upon us, and it’s shaping up to be an exciting one. While we’re all looking ahead to how our teams will look and hopefully improve this year, it’s important to remember one of the constants of the NFL: While some teams will get better, others will regress. Not everyone will be taking the anticipated step forward, and some will be taking a step back.
On that note, it’s a good opportunity to check in on some of the most volatile coaching situations in the NFL. I delved through the 32 head coaches to come up with my top-five hottest seats in the league heading into 2024. Many of these names won’t be terribly surprising, as several were considered candidates to be let go this offseason, but a couple were a little more challenging than others.
Mike McCarthy
I think I speak for most NFL fans when I say that we were shocked when Mike McCarthy wasn’t fired after the Dallas Cowboys’ most recent playoff defeat. He’s back for 2024, coming off the loss of another key coordinator in Dan Quinn and a thoroughly disappointing offseason marred by a failure to take action on quarterback Dak Prescott’s contract. To put it simply, the Cowboys have been suspiciously lax in addressing veteran departures and the multiple holes on the roster.
While I think the draft class has the potential to be good, it’s a tough assignment for any rookie offensive lineman to come in and play right away. Tyler Guyton and Cooper Beebe could be thrust into the spotlight immediately to plug holes, and I’m not sure that will produce great results — at least, not right away. The receiving corps is incredibly thin after CeeDee Lamb, and the lack of urgency to address running back led to an uninspiring reunion with late-career Ezekiel Elliott.
I’m not sure any of these things are explicitly McCarthy’s fault, but we all know who will get the blame if Dallas regresses in 2024.
Matt Eberflus
Matt Eberflus is in a strange situation with the Chicago Bears. In many ways, it would’ve made sense for the Bears to make a clean break and start fresh with a new head coach in 2024. The team is very much in the midst of what feels like a perpetually ongoing rebuild, and Eberflus’ abysmal 10-24 record through two seasons doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. At the same time, the roster has been far from competitive and Eberflus can argue that he didn’t get any say in the previous quarterback decision. Sure, fair enough.
All that being said, expectations will be through the roof for Chicago in 2024 thanks to an aggressive offseason headlined by the addition of No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams at quarterback. If things don’t take off quite as fast as hoped and the Bears are once again picking near the top of the NFL Draft, the pitchforks will come out — and Eberflus will be the one on the pointy end.
Dennis Allen
Have you noticed a theme so far? The first three coaches on this list, Dennis Allen included, are all guys who were in danger of being fired at the end of the 2023 season. Allen has been a largely uninspiring coach for the New Orleans Saints, clawing his way to an under-.500 record over two seasons despite possessing one of the oldest and most expensive rosters in the NFL and playing in a division that has been pretty much wide open for the taking.
The expensive acquisition of Derek Carr was supposed to be the necessary move to get the Saints back on top in the NFC South, but the team ultimately fell short once again. Allen likely has a Week 18 Falcons collapse to thank for keeping his job heading into 2024, but things are looking considerably more dire for the Saints this season. The roster has continued to age and thin out thanks to years of cap shenanigans. New Orleans has an even tougher path to the playoffs this season, and three straight misses would almost certainly mean the end for Allen.
Robert Saleh
It seems like the signing of Aaron Rodgers, and his subsequent injury, probably saved Robert Saleh’s job in 2023. Perhaps Rodgers really would have lifted the New York Jets to playoff contention and renewed faith in Saleh’s leadership, but his injury essentially gave Saleh a free pass. While it’s clear Saleh is a great defensive mind and he’s put together a top unit in New York over the past two seasons, the offense has continuously held the team back.
Saleh is an abysmal 18-33 over his three seasons, and you’d expect pretty much any other coach to be shown the door in that situation. That means that 2024 is probably “playoffs or bust” time for both Saleh and the entire regime in New York. The Jets will obviously be better with a healthy Aaron Rodgers, but can they really compete with the top contenders in the AFC? Are they a better team than the Chiefs, Ravens, Bills, or Texans? Can Aaron Rodgers actually stay healthy? Will he retire mid-season to do ayahuasca and go on darkness retreats? A playoff berth alone may not be enough to save Saleh’s job given the expectations around the team.
Brian Daboll
It’s pretty unusual to see a coach coming off an AP Coach of Year award just two seasons prior entering the season on the hot seat, but the New York Giants are an unusual team. Brian Daboll worked magic in New York to get the team to a 9-7-1 record, playoff berth, and upset victory over the Vikings in 2022, but things completely fell apart in 2023. The Giants were among the league’s worst offenses and were near the bottom defensively as well, with Daniel Jones performing poorly coming off his extension before spending the majority of the season on IR.
New York is in a difficult spot heading into 2024, as the team chose to pass on a quarterback upgrade for another huge need, a wide receiver upgrade. That might have been the best choice for the team, but it probably wasn’t the best choice for Daboll’s job security. I still believe Daboll is a good coach and wouldn’t be shocked if he bounces back this season, but he’ll have to pull out some more of that 2022 magic to overtake the Eagles or Cowboys in the playoff race.
