9 college basketball teams that can win men’s national championship in 2025, ranked by likelihood

These are the teams capable of winning it all in the 2025 men’s NCAA tournament.

What does it take to win a national championship in men’s college basketball? Winning six games through the bracket requires balance, star-power, and a lot of luck. With the 2025 NCAA tournament around the corner, this year’s March Madness will be no different.

Since 2002, every national champion but two have finished the season top-20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The vast majority of national champions over the last 40 years have featured an AP All-American. Whether it’s a good draw or a lucky bounce, basically every national champion has had good fortune on their side. There hasn’t been a Big Ten team to win the national championship since 2000 Michigan State.

This year in college basketball feels more top-heavy than normal. March Madness might be defined by upsets, but the team that wins it all usually has the markers of an elite roster. With Selection Sunday just a few weeks out, here’s our list of the teams that can win it all in the 2025 men’s NCAA tournament.

9. Arizona Wildcats

Arizona reached the Sweet 16 in two of Tommy Lloyd’s first three years as head coach, and he again has a team that can make a run through the bracket. Caleb Love is still here for his fifth season of college ball, and he remains a feast-or-famine guard whose shooting touch (or lack there of) will determine how far this team goes. The Wildcats thought they would be playing through 7’2 big man Motiejus Krivas this year, but season-ending foot surgery ended his year after only eight games. Fortunately for Arizona, Estonian 7-footer Henri Veesaar has emerged as a critical piece in the middle whose efficient interior scoring and rim protection has provide enough production in the front court to dream about winning six straight when it counts.

The question for Arizona will be their shooting. The Wildcats don’t take many three-pointers — ranking No. 287 in percentage of field goal attempts from three — and they don’t make many either. Arizona’s 31.6 percent three-point percentage as a team barely cracks the top-300 of DI. It’s on Jaden Bradley and KJ Lewis to get hot at the right time, otherwise this team will be riding the Caleb Love rollercoaster.

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8. Wisconsin Badgers

Wisconsin was tied for 12th when the Big Ten preseason poll was released after a chaotic offseason that saw the team lose AJ Storr to Kansas, Chucky Hepburn to Louisville, and Tyler Wahl to graduation. Head coach Greg Gard went to the transfer portal to replenish the roster, and somehow came away with Wisconsin’s best offensive team since Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker were on campus in 2015. The days of Wisconsin basketball being slow and boring are over. These Badgers have finally started playing faster and shooting more threes, and somehow it’s produced a Wisconsin team that averages more than 81 points per game.

John Tonje was a productive four-year player at Colorado State before transferring to Missouri last season, where he quickly suffered a season-ending foot injury. Wisconsin brought him over, and he’s turned into one of the best scoring guards in the country. Tonje is averaging 24.8 points per game over his last nine games on super efficient scoring, highlighted by 45 percent three-point shooting on more than eight attempts per game. John Blackwell is coming into his own as a secondary scorer in the backcourt, while Nolan Winter and Steven Crowl keep Wisconsin’s tradition of versatile 7-footers alive. We’ll go with the Badgers over Michigan State, Maryland, Purdue, and Michigan as the Big Ten team most equipped to make a run in March.

7. Tennessee Volunteers

Rick Barnes last made the Final Four back in 2003. Now 70 years old, the head coach is running out of time to chase an elusive national championship, but he once again has a team that gives him a real shot to get the ring he’s been chasing. Tennessee suffered a heartbreaker in the Elite Eight to Purdue a year ago, but bounced back by landing another star scorer in the transfer portal to complement its elite defense. No, Chaz Lanier isn’t as electric as Dalton Knecht, but he’s given the Vols the shot-maker and go-to scorer they needed to remain a national title contender. Lanier’s scoring punch matched with the country’s No. 1 defense has been a winning formula against a brutal SEC schedule all season.

Tennessee is loaded with experience with five seniors and a junior as part of their regular rotation. Zakai Zeigler feels like he’s been around forever as a pint-sized defensive pest, and this year he’s improved his scoring while posting career-high assist numbers. Charlotte transfer Igor Milicic gives the Vols a big man who can shoot and make plays as a passer. Tennessee still plays at one of the country’s slowest tempos, but that’s just the way Barnes wants it. With the offense clinging to top-30 status and the defense remaining totally dominant, Tennessee is equipped to win rock fights as they make their way through the bracket.

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6. Iowa State Cyclones

Iowa State has always been an elite defensive team under head coach TJ Otzelberger. This season, the offense is finally starting to catch up. Last year’s Sweet 16 team finished the season ranked No. 1 in defensive efficiency but only No. 52 in offensive efficiency. There’s more balance this year, with another top-10 defensive unit being tied to an offense that currently ranks No. 21 in points per 100 possessions. The Cyclones have strong continuity from last year, with Keshon Gilbert, Tamin Lipsey, and Curtis Jones manning the backcourt, and Milan Momcilovic on the wing. Big man Joshua Jefferson has come in from St. Mary’s to provide inside scoring punch, while Charlotte transfer Dishon Jackson is providing critical rim protection.

The Cyclones are playing so much faster this season compared to Otzelberger’s previous teams, and it’s given them the opportunity to attack opposing defenses before they get set. Jones has made a big leap as a scorer to balance out Lipsey’s ferocious point of attack defense. Iowa State only lost to Auburn by two points and went into OT in a loss to Arizona, and it already has wins over Marquette, Kansas, and Texas Tech. Can ISU score enough to break past the Sweet 16 this year? The early returns have been encouraging.

5. Houston Cougars

No team in college basketball has a more ingrained identity than Houston under head coach Kelvin Sampson. The Cougars play an ultra-physical, defense-first style that wants to force turnovers, beat you up on the glass, and play a methodical version of offense that wears down opponents over the course of the game. This year’s group doesn’t feel like Sampson’s most talented team, but it still has a compelling case as a national title contender. The Cougars are ruthlessly efficient on both ends of the floor with the nation’s No. 7 offense and No. 3 defense. They clean the offensive glass to generate extra possessions, and do a good job of avoiding turnovers on offense while forcing them on defense. Houston might not take many three-pointers — they rank No. 299 in the country in percentage of field goal attempts from deep — but they make 40.2 percent of the ones the do take, the country’s second best percentage.

Junior guard Emanuel Sharp has been an advanced stats star this year by ripping threes, generating steals, and protecting the ball. Oklahoma transfer Milos Uzan is a big lead guard who is suddenly becoming Sampson’s lead creator in crunch-time. The big man trio of J’Wan Roberts, Joseph Tugler, and Ja’Vier Francis provides length, power, and rebounding on the inside even without much athletic explosion. Houston games are typically ugly, but that’s just the way they want it. Sampson is building elite teams every year at this point, and that’s a good way to eventually breakthrough.

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4. Florida Gators

Florida was picked to finish sixth in the SEC coming into the season, but quickly stamped itself as a legit natty contender with some marquee wins in SEC play. The Gators are one of two teams in the country to beat Auburn this season, and can also boast a 30-point shellacking of Tennessee. Florida is one of three teams in the country currently ranked in the top-10 of KenPom’s offensive and defensive efficiency metrics, alongside with Duke and Houston. They’re the best offensive rebounding team among the true contenders, and they have a winning mix of experience and continuity. Outside of Florida Atlantic transfer Alijah Martin and former Wazzu big man Rueben Chinyelu, every key piece of this rotation has spent multiple years in Gainesville.

You usually need an elite guard to win in March, and Florida has arguably the best guard in the country in Walter Clayton Jr. The senior is a high-volume three-point threat at 36.5 percent from deep who has gotten better as a playmaker every year. The key for Florida feels like sophomore big man Alex Condon, who is returning from an ankle injury. Condon has an intriguing combination of rebounding, shot-blocking, and playmaking at 6’11, which anchors the defense and helps keep the offense humming in the backcourt. Another key: Florida’s defense has been really good at making teams miss from three-point range this season, with opponents only hitting 28 percent of their triples against them on the year. Is that sustainable through the tournament? If so, this team absolutely has Final Four potential.

3. Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama was expected to be a championship contender coming into the season after reaching the Final Four last year, and they’ve lived up to the hype so far. Head coach Nate Oats has his team playing at an absurd tempo that ranks No. 1 in pace according to KenPom. The Tide shoot a ton of threes like they always have under Oats, and those shots have a real benefit even if they’re not falling quite as often this season at 34.2 percent as a team. With opposing defenses keyed in on protecting the three-point line, Alabama has become the most efficient two-point scoring team in the country by making more than 60 percent of its looks inside the arc.

Alabama’s roster is absolutely loaded at every position. Mark Sears hasn’t quite been the National Player of the Year contender he was supposed to be, but he’s still one of the better point guards in the country. Grant Nelson and highly-paid Rutgers transfer Clifford Omoruyi are a complementary interior duo who can stretch you out (Nelson) or crush the glass and finish lobs (Omoruyi). South Florida transfer Chris Youngblood has become the X-factor as a microwave scorer and high-volume shooter on the wing. Even without injured guard Latrell Wrightsell, Oats has a ton of different lineup combinations he can go to around his main pieces.

The big question with Alabama is the defense, which ranks only No. 45 in the country. The Tide are going to try to out-run and out-score everyone they play, and they have the depth to stay fresh. If the shots are falling, this team will be very tough to beat in March.

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2. Auburn Tigers

All Auburn has done this season is traverse the most difficult conference in the country while smoking just about every team in their path. Auburn is 25-2 while facing a loaded SEC slate along with some non-conference juggernauts, and they can already tout wins over Houston, Iowa State, Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri, and Purdue, who all rank in the top-20 of KenPom. Like Duke, the Tigers have remarkable balance on both ends of the floor with the most efficient offense in America and the No. 11 defense. Like Duke, they can credibly claim to having the best player in the country with senior big man Johni Broome.

What sets Auburn apart from the Blue Devils is its level of experience. Broome is in his fifth year of college basketball, and he’s flanked by a 25-year-old wing in Chad Baker-Mazara, a 24-year-old guard in Denver Jones, a 23-year-old big in Dylan Caldwell, a 22-year-old forward in Chaney Johnson, and another senior in Miles Kelly. College hoops has become an old man’s game during the Covid-year era, and Auburn is as old as any team. It’s the youngest star on the team who could make-or-break their tournament chances: freshman guard Tahaad Pettiford has provided a level of shot-making and creation Bruce Pearl’s Tiger teams typically lack, and he’s quickly blossoming into one of the country’s more dynamic off the dribble threats. Pearl took Auburn to a Final Four in 2019, and this team is even better. It’s a national championship or bust year for the Tigers. They are the co-favorites in the field alongside Duke.

1. Duke Blue Devils

Duke checks every box for a potential national champion: it has marquee wins over fellow contenders (Auburn, Arizona), it’s put up incredible efficiency numbers on both ends of the floor, it has a tremendous intersection of size and shooting, and it has arguably the best player in the country in future No. 1 overall NBA draft pick Cooper Flagg.

Duke is the only team in the country currently top-5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. Flagg and fellow NBA-bound freshman Khaman Maluach provide a ridiculous amount of length in the front court. Flagg is growing into a gifted play creator, and Maluach has emerged as the country’s best lob threat and one of its best interior finishers with 73 percent true shooting. Kon Knueppel and Isaiah Evans give Duke two more freshmen who can rip three-pointers, while Sion James gives the Blue Devils an athletic senior with a strong feel for the game who brings it defensively. Duke’s youth and backcourt bring some questions, but this team feels about as well-rounded as any in the country.