Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images
Both the World Series champions Texas Rangers and the NL Pennant winners Arizona Diamondbacks are struggling right now. Can either or both of them bounce back?
On Tuesday night, the Dodgers won 15-2. This included an incredible display of power in the sixth inning where Los Angeles went off for seven runs while hitting four home runs in the single frame. Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernández and even Jason Heyward all went deep in that sixth frame in order to help push the Dodgers to their 42nd win of the season so far. While the Dodgers may not have the best record in the National League right now, they’re still in a very solid position right now as one of only a handful of teams in the NL that’s actually above .500.
This is just what the Dodgers do. They’re going to have nights like this where they go off on a scoring binge while leaving their opposition in the dust. It’s not the first night they’ve had like this and it certainly won’t be the last. With that being said, we’re not here to talk about the Dodgers. Instead, it’s probably time to talk about a couple of other teams — one of them being the team that was on the other end of that beatdown that Los Angeles delivered on Tuesday. The defending World Series champions Texas Rangers are now 31-35 after suffering their most lopsided loss of the season and it’s clear that they’ve stumbled out of the gate when it comes to defending their title.
It’s definitely a change of scenery for the Rangers when it comes to their win/loss record, as they were never under .500 at any point during their 90-win campaign last season and the closest they got to it was when they were 4-4. They won the next game and never looked back as far as staying on the right side of .500 was concerned. For a while, it seemed like the Rangers were going to pick up where they left off as they were actually leading the division for a few days in early May. However, they never put more than one full game of space between them and the Mariners in second place. That was also a pretty bad time for Houston to go on a 2-12 run that saw them go from being in first place on May 10 to being 3.5 games back on May 25.
The Rangers were able to lean on the fact that the Mariners hadn’t gone on a really fine run of form, themselves. However, times have changed recently. Seattle has gone 7-3 in their last 10 games while Texas has gone 4-6 and fallen back to 6.5 games behind in the standings. The Mariners may not have the best record in the American League right now but they can say that they have the largest divisional lead in the AL at the moment. Meanwhile, the Rangers are currently closer to the Angels than they are the Mariners. Needless to say, Texas’ maiden voyage as World Series champions has not gone according to plan.
We’re not here to just talk about the Rangers, either. It’s also time to talk about the team they defeated in the 2023 World Series: The Arizona Diamondbacks. Remember when I mentioned that there are currently only a handful of teams over .500 in the NL right now? The defending NL Pennant winners aren’t one of them, as they’re sitting in the Rangers’ neighborhood with a 32-35 record. The Diamondbacks also share another bond with the Rangers in that they are closer to a moribund franchise (this time, the Rockies) than they are to being in first place in their division.
While the Diamondbacks appear to be trying to make a move back to the land of being over .500 after starting off the month of June with a 7-3 run, this is only after they ended the month of May with a 3-7 stretch. They’ve essentially spent most of this season spinning their wheels in the mud and even their Expected W/L record and Pythagorean W/L record (both 33-34) suggest that this is where the Diamondbacks should be at this point in the season. The same goes for the Rangers as well, who are sitting on a 33-33 record when it comes to their predictive methods.
While FanGraphs didn’t exactly have both teams as favorites to return to the World Series, it’s clear that their chances are still fading a bit with each day that both teams continue to stay stuck in neutral. Right before the season started, FanGraphs’ Playoff Odds figured that the Rangers would return to Earth this season and gave them just a 38 percent shot at returning to the Postseason and only a two percent chance of repeating as World Series champs. The Diamondbacks had rosier odds at a 51 percent chance of making the Postseason and a 2.5 percent chance of lifting the trophy at the end of the season but it’s clear that both teams were considered outsiders heading into this campaign. It makes sense because hardly anybody could’ve predicted that these two would’ve met up in last season’s World Series.
It also makes sense that their chances have only dwindled since then. The Rangers are now sitting on only a 17 percent chance to get back to the playoffs and their odds of repeating have gone down to just below one percent. Arizona’s playoff odds have gone down to 34 percent with their World Series odds down nearly one full percentage point. If they were considered outsiders before the season started, they’ve only gotten further from being on the inside now that there’s less than 100 games to go in the season.
So what’s been the issue for the two 2023 World Series teams in 2024? While it would be a bit shortsighted to blame any team’s failure on one player, it’s safe to say that both teams would probably like it if some particular impact players eventually returned to good form. 2023 NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll has gone from leading last season’s Diamondbacks squad in fWAR (5.4) to sputtering about with only 0.5 fWAR so far this season and a 78 wRC+ to boot. He smacked a triple in Arizona’s 9-4 win over the Angels on Tuesday but electric moments like that have been few and far in between for Carroll here in 2024.
Meanwhile, Adolis García’s production at the plate has slowed down to a complete halt. García started off the season on fire with a first month slash line of .292/.347/.585 with a .396 wOBA, eight home runs and 158 wRC+. Ever since May 1, he’s hit .152/.207/.288 with a .216 wOBA, five home runs (somehow) and a paltry wRC+ of 35. While García has been known to be a streaky hitter for better (the 2023 Postseason) or worse (his current level of production), this is one hell of a valley that García finds himself in. His streakiness lends credence to the hope that he’ll eventually start raking again but for now, it’s been tough for Rangers fans to watch his at-bats as of late.
Again, this isn’t laying the blame at the feet of those two — Arizona’s pitching staff has been one of the worst in baseball according to both ERA- (114) and FIP- (111) and Adolis García has hardly been the only Rangers batter slumping as Texas’ offense has gone from being elite in 2023 (team wRC+ of 114 being fourth in all of baseball in 2023) to being below average (current team wRC+ of 95). Both teams are going to need to step up their level of performance across the board if they’re going to have any hope of repeating their unlikely runs of success in 2023.
Otherwise, both the Rangers and Diamondbacks are running the risk of being considered one-season wonders and anomalies in the greater picture of baseball history. The good news for both Texas and Arizona fans is that flags fly forever so it’s not like a poor encore performance can take away from what both teams accomplished last season. Still, it’s probably safe to assume that both teams would vastly prefer to return to where they were last season. Both teams are also learning that while it’s difficult to get to the top of the sport, it’s even more difficult to stay in that rarefied air.
