Caleb Williams has a major flaw, and the Bears better find a way to fix it

The numbers behind Caleb Williams’ deep ball inaccuracy are startling.

Caleb Williams was supposed to be the franchise quarterback the Chicago Bears literally waited 100 years for when team selected him with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Williams’ mere arrival in Chicago was miraculous by itself: the pick was acquired via a trade with the Carolina Panthers a year earlier, and seemed to set up Chicago for a long run of contention with a top QB prospect joining a rising, young team.

If only it could have been that simple. As the hype was reaching a crescendo on the brink of a 5-2 start. the Washington Commanders connected on a Hail Mary that ripped Chicago’s collective heart out and doomed their season.

The Bears lost their 10th straight game on Thursday night during another pathetic showing against the Seattle Seahawks. Chicago could only muster a single field goal in the 6-3 loss, again showing an anemic offensive attack.

The Bears can’t pin all their problems on former head coach Matt Eberflus anymore after he was fired following the team’s disastrous loss on Thanksgiving. Interim head coach Thomas Brown has been every bit as bad, and has continued to highlight how dysfunctional the Bears are at every level of the organization. Williams is getting caught in the crosshairs.

Williams was said to be starting his career in the best situation ever for a No. 1 overall pick. Fast forward 17 weeks and that suddenly seems like a comical statement in hindsight. The Bears’ offensive line is perhaps the worst in the NFL, allowing constant pressure and hits on their star rookie. The highly-touted wide receiver core has been a big disappointment, too. Williams shouldn’t escape blame himself despite being put in what feels like an unwinnable situation.

Williams has been sacked 67 times, most in the NFL by a mile. The Bears’ line is terrible, but Thursday night’s disgraceful performance again highlighted that the rookie QB hangs onto the ball too long in the pocket. According to Next Gen Stats Williams averages 2.91 seconds in the pocket per throw, 13th-most in the NFL. Pro Football Focus charting data indicates that Williams has been pressured on 193 of his dropbacks, third most in the NFL.

While Williams shares some responsibility for those pressures — PFF charting data credits him with some responsibility on 19.2% of those pressures, seventh-most among qualified passers — the rookie is facing serious heat in the pocket. With two games left, Williams is close to breaking David Carr’s NFL record of being sacked 76 times in a season.

Williams has another problem that hasn’t been talked about as much. He just can’t hit a deep pass this year. He did not complete a pass that traveled more than six yards in the air on Thursday night.

While weather may have played a role against Seattle on Thursday night, Williams’ inability to connect on a deep ball has been an issue all season. He’s one of the NFL’s least accurate downfield passers, and that’s when he even attempts a deep pass.

According to Pro Football Focus’ charting data, Williams’ completion percentage on throws over 20 yards is 26.7 percent, which ranks 23rd out of 25 qualified QBs (defined as 50% of their team’s throws). His Yards per Attempt of 8.1 on these throws is 25th out of 25 qualified QBs. Minnesota’s Sam Darnold leads the way with an YPA of 18.2 on such throws.

Williams is also No. 24 out of 25 qualified passers in PFF’s Adjusted Completion Percentage on throws of 20+ air yards.

Here’s one missed deep ball from late in the fourth quarter against Seattle. The Seahawks pass rush as coming, but it felt like Williams could have stepped up in the pocket to deliver a strike downfield. Instead, he was never on platform and air-mailed what could have been a contested catch opportunity for fellow rookie Rome Odunze.

Williams was still able to create some magical moments for Chicago in the loss. He picked up a huge fourth down conversion to D.J. Moore with Seattle pass rushers coming for him late in the fourth quarter. He also completed a 3rd-and-15 to Odunze later in the drive.

Williams’ best throw of the night didn’t count. This incredible touchdown toss was called back for holding.

Williams still has plenty of talent and should develop into a very good NFL QB. The next Bears head coach will have to work on getting rid the ball quicker, and also finding a way to connect on some deep passes.

This has been a nightmare season for the Bears in every sense of the word. Williams still shoulders the future hopes of the franchise, but his rookie year has been sobering in more ways than one.