NFL Draft rumors: Will Levis to Vikings, Dallas trading down, and more

Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Keeping up with all the latest 2023 NFL Draft rumors

Our first rumor came true!

Well, sort of.

The long-anticipated Aaron Rodgers trade was announced on Monday, with the New York Jets and the Green Bay Packers finally coming to an agreement on a package of picks for the four-time league MVP.

As we discussed earlier this week, the second night of the 2023 NFL Draft was viewed as perhaps a “soft deadline,” and now, we have a deal.

So what is the next NFL draft rumor that will come true? Will it be one of these?

Could the Arizona Cardinals be stuck at 3?

There is a difference of opinion as to what team can “control” the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft. While some, like myself, have made the case that the Arizona Cardinals hold the keys to the first round others have argued for the Seattle Seahawks, or the Detroit Lions.

However, the assumption that the Cardinals could run the first night of the draft begins with the premise that a team will give Arizona a huge package of picks to move up for a quarterback.

Yet, recent reporting indicates that the Cardinals are struggling to find a dance partner.

On Monday, Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated wrote that while Arizona wants to move down, in what he is hearing “it seems like it won’t be easy to move the pick.” Now, Breer qualifies that with the notion that if C.J. Stroud is available, it might be easier to find a team willing to come up.

If, however, Stroud is off the board when the Cardinals are on the clock, it might be tougher for Arizona to find that trading partner.

Is this class weaker at the top than we thought?

There was another notable nugget that came out of Breer’s column on Monday, and it was right there at the start:

I’m excited for the draft.

You’re excited for the draft.

The teams at the top of the draft, though, aren’t quite as much, and that’s thanks to the makeup of a class that’ll have GMs in its upper reaches holding their … breath as they turn in their cards. There’s a lot to like, sure. But there’s plenty to worry about, too, and that’s from the top of the first round all the way to the bottom.

“If you have 15 first-round grades, then the class sucks,” said one general manager Saturday. “And I got less than 15 this year.”

While there are 32 picks in the first round of the NFL draft — or 31 this year after the Miami Dolphins forfeited their first-round selection — that does not mean that teams have 32 first-round grades on their boards. Generally speaking, teams usually have around 20 or so players with true first-round grades, so when you get to the bottom of the first round you are looking at players who might have a first/second grade, or even a true second-round grade, coming off the board.

This year, however, those types of players might be coming off the board in the mid-to-late teens.

Every year we hear, usually right as the draft arrives, that the “strength” or “depth” of the class is in the 30-80 pick range.

This year might show that to be true.

Are the Dallas Cowboys trading out of 26?

Cowboys owner Jerry Jones and head coach Mike McCarthy held their pre-draft press conference on Monday, and perhaps the biggest indication from the two men regarding their draft plans, at least with their first-round selection, was this:

Specifically, Jones had this to say about their pick at the end of the first round: “I do catch myself thinking about trade, and we’ve done some of that. You’re trying to get a higher value, get more points,” Jones said on Monday.

As noted above, the strength of this class could be found a bit later in the draft, so Dallas might be looking to accumulate more selections in that 30-80 range of the draft, rather than take a player who might have a second-round grade at 26 overall.

Of course, mentioning Jones’s press conference requires a quick nod to this incredible moment:

Might we see more RBs than WRs on Thursday night?

The past few draft cycles have seen a devaluation of the running back position, and an emphasis on players that can contribute in the passing game.

Could the 2023 NFL Draft turn that idea on its head?

Benjamin Allbright, who covers the NFL Draft and the Denver Broncos, floated that possibility on Monday:

At first blush, this seems completely out of sync with how the NFL draft has trended the past few years. During the 2022 NFL Draft, six WRs came off the board in the first round, while the first running back was not taken until the second round. During the 2021 NFL Draft, while we saw two running backs drafted in the first round, five WRs came off the board.

In fact, the last time we saw more running backs than wide receivers in the first round was during the 2018 NFL Draft, when Saquon Barkley, Rashaad Penny, and Sony Michel were all first-round selections. Only two wide receivers were drafted in the first round that year: D.J. Moore and Calvin Ridley.

Now, what could be behind this rumor? First is the rise of Jahmyr Gibbs, who has been discussed in recent days as RB1, ahead of Bijan Robinson. Second is the makeup of this class of receivers. While talented, the players at the top are more slot types, and the league often pushes those receivers down the board a bit in favor of more “X” types of receivers, who can play on the boundary and handle press coverage.

Will things play out that way Thursday night? Only time will tell.

Will Levis to Minnesota at No. 2?

Something strange has been happening with the odds on the second-overall selection. We will dive deeper into the odds in a moment, but we first have to touch on this idea, floated by Jaime Eisner of The Draft Network. In his most recent mock draft Eisner delivered a shocker: Minnesota trading up to 2 from 23 to draft Will Levis.

Here is what he had to say about that possibility:

“Surprise! You may have seen the betting odds change for the No. 2 overall pick on Saturday, with Will Levis becoming the odds-on favorite. But I don’t think that’s because the Texans are taking him. I’ve heard loud rumblings that Minnesota is very active in trying to trade up for a quarterback and I think they will pull off a blockbuster here. Levis will succeed Kirk Cousins after the Vikings chose not to extend the latter beyond this season. There is a major disconnect between how fans and those inside the NFL view Will Levis. Don’t get me wrong, there are several people in the NFL who are uninterested in drafting Levis this high, but there are plenty who believe he is absolutely worth the cost with the upside to be the best passer in the class when it’s all said and done.”

The idea of Minnesota trading up has been raised earlier this draft cycle. Earlier this month Josh Norris of Underdog Fantasy — who correctly predicted 16 of the 32 selections in the 2021 NFL Draft — identified the Vikings as a team that might come up to three:

Something could be happening here…

We have officially reached silly season

I mentioned the odds regarding the top of the first round a few minutes ago.

It is time to revisit them, because something incredible happened on Tuesday.

Many sports books pulled down their odds for the top few selections, after odds shifted heavily towards Levis at the top of the first round overnight:

Eventually, the reason was uncovered.

Reddit.

Or more specifically, this post on Reddit that claimed that Levis told someone at 31 Flavors the other night that the Carolina Panthers are drafting him with the first-overall pick in the draft.

Astute observers noted that the Redditor was not only making some predictions/guarantees about the NFL draft, but also the next Batman movie:

Hey, maybe they’re right about both?

Either way, we have officially reached silly season.

Two more nights, friends, then it’s Draft Day.