Predicting one breakout player for each NBA team in 2024: Western Conference Edition

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The start of the NBA season is here, so let’s predict one breakout player from each Western Conference team ahead of the 2024-25 campaign. 

Editor’s Note: This is the Western Conference edition of our series on breakout player candidates for each NBA team in the 2024-25 season. The Eastern Conference edition can be read here.

Every year, each team opens the season with optimism about their new acquisitions or young prospects who are due for a breakout season. Some breakouts are easier to predict than others, but the formula used for this list will be a blend of past production, talent, upside, and most importantly, opportunity.

The top five Most Improved Player Award results last season went as follows: Tyrese Maxey, Coby White, Alperen Sengun, Jalen Williams, and Jalen Brunson. Some of those “breakouts” were expected, but then you have Coby White, who seemingly came out of nowhere after a relatively disappointing start to his career.

But making an unexpected leap comes in several different forms. This will focus on players leaping from one level to another, rather than getting fixated on their past “leaps.” Yes, some of these players have already broken out, but there are levels to it. From bench player to key rotation piece, from role player to key starter, from starter to star, or from star to superstar, there are various ways to make “breakout watch” in this league.

Here are 15 players we think are due for a breakout in the Western Conference.

Dallas Mavericks: Jaden Hardy

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The Mavericks will need someone to step up with Dante Exum out for a significant amount of time (three-plus months) this season. Despite having Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and Klay Thompson, there is still a clear need for spacing and buckets off the bench. Insert Jaden Hardy.

Hardy has had his fair share of struggles early in his career, but there have been moments where his role as a floor spacer and scorer looks seamless. During the Western Conference Finals last postseason, he connected on 60% of his threes in 10.4 minutes per game, averaging 7.4 points to help Dallas advance to the NBA Finals. Shooting 40% from deep throughout the playoffs shows that he is capable of hitting tough shots on a big stage. Consistency will be the key as he enters his third season in the NBA. The opportunity will certainly be there.

Denver Nuggets: Julian Strawther

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The Nuggets lost Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in consecutive offseasons. Denver’s depth was already a concern at times last season, and with KCP bolting, they will need someone to step up. The additions of Russell Westbrook and Dario Saric should help, but a spacing wing who can contribute defensively is more of a need for them. Christian Braun stepped up a year ago, and now all signs point to Julian Strawther.

Strawther stands at 6’7 and has shown to be a capable shooter who can get hot in a hurry. He can hit off movement, off screens, and connect from deep range to stretch defenses. The ability to hit transition pullups is a strength he’s flashed as well. Playing at Gonzaga, he regularly showcased how smart of an off-ball mover he is with his ability to cut and relocate around the perimeter. If only he played alongside a center that rewarded him for those movements… Oh, wait, he happens to play with the best in the business in that capacity.

During his last season at Gonzaga, he connected on 40% of his threes on over five attempts per game. Denver needs someone to step up, and so far he’s looked like he could be that guy during preseason action.

Golden State Warriors: Brandin Podziemski

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Honorable Mention: Jonathan Kuminga

The Warriors were reportedly reluctant to include Podziemski in a rumored deal for Lauri Markannen this offseason, and only time will tell if that was the right move.

“A lot of these other teams are calling about you,” Podziemski said (Mike) Dunleavy told him (via The Athletic). “They want you, but you’re not going anywhere. You’re ours.” That ringing endorsement for Podziemski serves him well entering his sophomore season.

Podziemski is a high-energy, versatile guard who can do a little bit of everything well. He finished fifth in the Rookie of the Year voting after appearing in 74 games (28 starts) for the Warriors in his rookie campaign. He has gained the trust of the Warriors coaching staff and figures to be a key piece of their rotation in an expanded role this year. Steph Curry will need all the help he can get, and it starts with “Podz” as a potential starting backcourt mate.

Houston Rockets: Jabari Smith Jr.

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The Rockets have a loaded core of young talent ready to make noise. Their team is reminiscent of Orlando before they broke out. If they put it all together, they could be a playoff team this season in a deep Western Conference.

Jabari Smith Jr. will have less pressure on him with more talent and spacing around him. He is a 6’11 shooter with a quick release and has shown a willingness to compete on the glass, averaging 8.1 rebounds per game last season. His three-point percentage increased from 30.7% in his rookie season to 36.3% last year. The passing flashes and pull-up shooting further strengthen his case as a breakout candidate. He is primed for a big year with his combination of size, scoring, and shooting ability.

Los Angeles Clippers: Terance Mann

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Paul George is gone. Russell Westbrook is gone. Kawhi Leonard is set to miss (at least) a big chunk of the start of the season. James Harden will have a heavy workload to carry, and he will need a “Robin” in the games Kawhi is out. That is where Mann steps in as a reliable rotation piece that Ty Lue trusts.

Mann has averaged exactly 8.8 points per game in consecutive seasons, but last year he saw a dip in his 3-point percentage down to a career-low 34.8. For a career 37.3% shooter from long range who will likely see 28-plus minutes per game, this breakout will be a circumstantial one more than anything. The volume hasn’t necessarily been attainable in recent years, but dating back to 2021-22 he averaged a career-high 10.8 points and 28.6 minutes per game. This season should align closer to those numbers, and even an uptick on those would not surprise as he enters his age 27 season.

Los Angeles Lakers: Max Christie

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The Lakers’ bench unit needs some consistency this season. That may be a lot to ask for from a 21-year-old, but Christie has shown progress early in his career. The Lakers felt confident enough to reward him with a four-year, $32 million contract to stay with Los Angeles this summer.

His defensive instincts are impressive and should only improve with more reps. The long-range shooting adds to his value as a 3-and-D threat. He has shot 38% from three-point range during his first two seasons. His offensive value also lies in his ability to cut and play off the ball. JJ Redick and his staff will lean on Christie for extensive minutes this season, and they should get what they paid for and then some from the promising young guard.

Memphis Grizzlies: GG Jackson

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Honorable Mention: Jake LaRavia

Last year made it clear the Grizzlies have found a real contributor in GG Jackson. Unfortunately, they will have to wait for his return as he underwent surgery on his foot and will be re-evaluated in approximately two months. Jackson was a second-round pick in the 2023 NBA draft and earned 2nd team NBA All-Rookie honors. In 48 games, including 18 starts, he averaged 14.6 points and 4.1 rebounds per game. He was a lone bright spot for the Grizzlies in an injury-riddled season.

During his final three games of the regular season in 2023-24, Jackson put up 32.2 points per game, including a masterful 44-point performance in the season finale. Once he returns, the Grizzlies will be a deep and dangerous team.

Minnesota Timberwolves: Naz Reid

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Honorable Mention: Donte DiVincenzo

This one is similar to the Jalen Williams pick earlier. Yes, he just had his coming out party and won Sixth Man of the Year. Now, with KAT in the Big Apple, Reid will get even more of an opportunity to showcase his abilities in a larger role for Minnesota.

Julius Randle is now in the mix, but that won’t stop Reid from getting significant minutes and scoring opportunities on a team that could lack consistent secondary scoring options next to Anthony Edwards. DiVincenzo, Reid, and Randle will all chip in, but it’s easy to believe that the best of Naz is yet to come. Minnesota, despite trading KAT, will still be a dangerous squad. The closer his minutes get to ~30 (per game) the closer his points per game will be in the 20-plus range per game.

New Orleans Pelicans: Trey Murphy

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Murphy has shown his value time and time again for the Pelicans early in his career. Having a 6’9 wing who can shoot, attack closeouts, and defend the way he can is a recipe for a great wing. Having him and Herb Jones on the wings gives New Orleans a pair of standout forwards who can mix it up inside and out.

Last season, Murphy averaged 14.8 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 2.2 assists per game on a 44/38/81 shooting splits. He put up nearly 8 three-point attempts per game and should continue to get the green light for a team that wants to play fast. New Orleans has limited big-man options, so they will unleash the wings yet again. The question is, how healthy will their star trio of Zion, Ingram, and Murray be?

Oklahoma City Thunder: Jalen Williams

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Honorable Mention: Isaiah Joe

Okay, hear me out. Williams already technically “broke out” last season, it is noted. The leap we’re talking about here is rising from a “promising young wing” to a “star”. You can write that in Sharpie.

Josh Giddey is gone, and his role will be filled by Alex Caruso, who operates comfortably and almost exclusively off the ball. That is a night and day difference from the formerly mentioned Giddey. Shai will continue to be Shai, but every great star needs someone to take the pressure off them and step up in key moments. Chet can occasionally be that guy offensively next season, but Williams is ready to be that guy from day one.

Phoenix Suns: Tyus Jones

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Tyus Jones was an underrated acquisition for Phoenix this summer and it’s already evident during the preseason. The veteran guard will start for the Suns and see plenty of time, sharing the floor with at least two or three stars at a time.

His excellent decision-making and ability to control the offense will be a sight for sore eyes in Phoenix under Mike Budenholzer. Jones took a notable discount and will be playing with a chip on his shoulder as he looks to restore his value and convert that into a larger payday next summer. He has a winning pedigree and should instill the needed level of competence at the point guard position the Suns lacked desperately last season.

Portland Trail Blazers: Deni Avdija

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Honorable Mention: Shaedon Sharpe

Deni already had a mini breakout season a year ago in Washington — finishing sixth in the Most Improved Player of the Year voting last season — but this year could be even more significant of a jump. Avdija will start and see heavy minutes from the jump on a young, rebuilding Blazers team. His versatility on both ends and ability to handle the ball will present several opportunities for him to thrive.

Last season, Avdija averaged 14.7 points, 7.2 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 0.8 steals in 30.1 minutes per game. He appeared in 75 games (all starts) for the Wizards and posted 50/37/74 shooting splits. His all-around game and improved efficiency in a larger role could lead to another notable breakout as he comes into his own at 23 years old.

Sacramento Kings: Keegan Murray

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The Kings trio of Fox, Sabonis, and DeRozan will get the lion’s share of the attention entering the season, but don’t sleep on Keegan Murray. He has made strides defensively and adds a valuable combination of size and shooting at the forward position. Murray will play a vital role in Sacramento’s hopes of making a deep playoff run.

Murray finished fifth in Rookie of the Year voting in 2022-23 and had a strong sophomore season for the Kings. While his three-point shooting percentage dipped from 41.1% to 35.6%, he increased his point-per-game average by exactly three points without a dip in overall field goal percentage. Defenses will be focused on containing three excellent scorers, and if they lose track of Murray he will make them pay. With the playmaking around him in a fast-paced offense, it’s easy to envision Murray breaking out in year three.

San Antonio Spurs: Victor Wembanyama

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Honorable Mention: Devin Vassell

Look, I know what you’re thinking. He’s already really good, why is he here? Well, this leap will be from a star to a superstar, and that is absolutely worth highlighting because it’s the most impactful “type” of breakout a player can have. Wembanyama is inevitable.

With veterans Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes in to stabilize the locker room and provide leadership on and off the court, Wemby is primed to put it all together in year two. If the Spurs make a playoff run it will be largely because of Wembanyama. And yes, he would receive MVP votes for that. His ability to impact the game on both ends has a shot at being historically good.

Utah Jazz: Keyonte George

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The Jazz do not have the deepest guard rotation, and they will rely on George for playmaking and scoring from the perimeter. He has the keys to the offense and should only progress his game in a larger role after showing some promising flashes during his rookie season.

The rough 39.1% field goal percentage a season ago comes with the territory of being a rookie guard with a lot of responsibility on a bad team. He is fresh off a 24-point preseason outing, displaying his offensive upside. His ability to attack mismatches and get to his spots in creative ways is fun to watch. There’s some real substance to go with the flash in his game. Jazz fans should be amped to see his progress in year two.