AFC West preview: Chiefs remain biggest threat, but division won’t be easy path

Photo by PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP via Getty Images

There’s reason to believe the Raiders, Broncos, and Chargers are all capable of making some noise this season.

All eyes are on the AFC West heading into the 2024 season to see if the reigning champs can, in fact, pull off the Super Bowl three-peat. But the AFC West is going to be interesting across the board this season.

Kansas City Chiefs

The reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs didn’t see the typical roster turnover you see from champions, which likely makes them the biggest threat in the NFL heading into the 2024 season.

2023 record: 11-6 (1st place in AFC West) / Super Bowl champions
2023 offense: 14th in points per game, 8th in total yards, 17th in rushing yards, 6th in passing yards, 24th in turnovers, and 2nd in sack percentage.
2023 defense: 2nd in points per game, 5th in total yards, 16th in rushing cards, 4th in passing yards, 23rd in turnovers, and 3rd in sack percentage.

Subtractions: WR Marquez Valdez-Scantling, S Mike Edwards, OT Donovan Smith, P Tommy Townsend, OG Nick Allegretti, OT Prince Tega Wanogho, LB Willy Gay Jr., QB Blaine Gabbert, TE Blake Bell, RB Jerick McKinnon, WR Richie James, LB Darius Harris, RB La’Mical Perine, CB L’Jarius Sneed, and TE Jody Fortson.

Additions: WR Xavier Worthy, OT Kingsley Suamataia, TE Jared Wiley, S Jaden Hicks, C Hunter Nourzad, WR Marquise Brown, TE Irv Smith Jr., and QB Carson Wentz.

Reasons for optimism

Everyone will want to talk about Patrick Mahomes, because that’s easy and he’s the best quarterback in the NFL. However, the real reason for optimism in Kansas City is that they have a championship-caliber defense to go along with the best quarterback in the NFL. This is the recipe that won Tom Brady his first three titles and is a recipe that should lead the Chiefs back to a ninth-straight AFC West title.

Reasons for pessimism

The Chiefs offense wasn’t up to par last season. They struggled all season long and really didn’t do a ton to fix that heading into this season. The caveat there is once they got into the playoffs, Mahomes was Mahomes and it didn’t matter. If the Chiefs defense takes a step back in any way and the offense sputters, then there could be trouble in paradise this season for Kansas City. Then again, they still have Mahomes, so even that might not matter.

Las Vegas Raiders

Last season, the Las Vegas Raiders seemed to come out of nowhere to snag second place in the AFC West. Dumping Josh McDaniels was just the juice this team needed to surge late in the season, winning three of their final four games.

2023 record: 8-9 (2nd place in AFC West)
2023 offense: 23rd in points per game, 27th in total yards, 30th in rushing yards, 23rd in passing yards, 20th in turnovers, and 16th in sack percentage.
2023 defense: 7th in points per game, 14th in total yards, 20th in rushing cards, 11th in passing yards, 19th in turnovers, and 10th in sack percentage.

Subtractions: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, WR Hunter Renfrow, RB Josh Jacobs, DT Bilal Nichols, DT Jerry Tillery, OT Jermaine Eluemunor, TE Austin Hooper, RB Brandon Bolden, QB Brian Hoyer, OG Greg Van Roten, WR DeAndre Carter, TE Jesper Horsted, OT Brandon Parker, FB Jakob Johnson, CB Tyler Hall, LB Curtis Bolton, and CB Amik Robertson.

Additions: TE Brock Bowers, OG Jackson Powers-Johnson, OT Delmar Glaze, CB Decamerion Richardson, LB Tommy Eichenberg, QB Gardner Minshew, G Cody Whitehair, OT Andrus Peat, DT Christian Wilkins, RB Alexander Mattison, TE Harrison Bryant, WR Jalen Guyton, and QB Nathan Peterman.

Reasons for optimism

The Raiders — even with questions at quarterback — can succeed by pushing for the big play. Davante Adams, who will turn 32 in December, is still an elite threat. Add in Jakobi Meyers and rookie tight end Brock Bowers and the Raiders offense could have enough juice to be competitive in most games. All that with a strong top-10 defense and the Raiders could be more of a problem than people expect in 2024. The Raiders, on paper, might just have the second-best roster in the AFC West this season.

Reasons for pessimism

Without an elite quarterback, how far can the Raiders really get in a QB-heavy division? If they end up 23rd in scoring again this season, then the big question will be whether or not their defense can replicate their dominating 2023 campaign. That’s not an easy thing to do in today’s NFL and a regression is more likely than a repeat for any good defensive season.

Denver Broncos

The 2024 Denver Broncos are going to be a much different team than a year ago. Since taking the reins last season, Head Coach Sean Payton has been aggressively rebuilding the roster. The team has gotten much younger, but are they any closer to contention than they were last year?

2023 record: 8-9 (3rd place in AFC West)
2023 offense: 20th in points per game, 26th in total yards, 19th in rushing yards, 24th in passing yards, 18th in turnovers, and 27th in sack percentage.
2023 defense: 27th in points per game, 29th in total yards, 30th in rushing cards, 23rd in passing yards, 11th in turnovers, and 19th in sack percentage.

Subtractions: QB Russell Wilson, S Justin Simmons, LB Josey Jewell, WR Jerry Jeudy, TE Chris Manhertz, CB K’Wuan Williams, OT Cameron Fleming, C Lloyd Cushenberry, CB Fabian Moreau, RB Dwayne Washington, S Caden Sterns, DE Jonathan Harris, DT Mike Purcell, and Ben Neimann.

Key Additions: QB Bo Nix, LB Jonah Elliss, WR Troy Franklin, CB Kris Abrams-Draine, RB Audric Estimé, WR Devaughn Vele, DE John Franklin-Myers, QB Zach Wilson, CB Levi Wallace, LB Cody Barton, S Brandon Jones, DT Angelo Blackson, OT Matt Peart, and NT Malcolm Roach.

Reasons for optimism

This is a young, hungry roster with a ton of optimism. The hype around Bo Nix seems both real and promising. Nix was legit every single day in training camp and the maturity for a rookie is off the charts. He had two near-perfect preseason games as well. We could see this young team rally around him as a leader and Week 1 starter. Maybe Payton can replicate what the Houston Texans did with C.J. Stroud this season.

Reasons for pessimism

One of the biggest concerns that Payton and company face in turning around this franchise is that its a franchise that has grown used to losing. As mentioned earlier, the biggest issue could be the lack of experience on the roster and the growing pains that could bring this season.

The defense has also looked good all through training camp, but outside of that five-game win streak last year it was a pretty rough season for Vance Joseph. Can he turn things around in 2024? That is the big question mark with most Broncos fans. Giving up 10 touchdowns in a single game is not something one easily forgets.

Los Angeles Chargers

It’s hard to believe the 2023 Los Angeles Chargers won just five games, so you have to figure they’ll be a much-improved football team this season under new head coach, Jim Harbaugh.

2023 record: 5-12 (4th place in AFC West)
2023 offense: 21st in points per game, 18th in total yards, 27th in rushing yards, 14th in passing yards, 17th in turnovers, and 13th in sack percentage.
2023 defense: 28th in points per game, 29th in total yards, 13th in rushing cards, 29th in passing yards, 21st in turnovers, and 14th in sack percentage.

Subtractions: WR Keenan Allen, WR Mike Williams, CB Michael Davis, DT Austin Johnson, LB Eric Kendricks, RB Austin Ekeler, TE Gerald Everett, C Will Clapp, WR Jalen Guyton, DL Nick Williams, DE Justin Hollins, RB Josh Kelley, C Corey Linsley, and S Jaylinn Hawkins.

Key Additions: OT Joe Alt, WR Ladd McConkey, LB Junior Colson, DE Justin Eboigbe, CB Tarheeb Still, CB Cam Hart, TE Will Dissly, TE Hayden Hurst, C Bradley Bozeman, WR D.J. Chark, NT Teair Tart, RB Gus Edwards, LB Bud Dupree, LB Denzel Perryman, DT Poona Ford, and RB J.K. Dobbins.

Reasons for optimism

Getting Jim Harbaugh was a huge win for this franchise. He has won everywhere he has gone has a head coach and figures to do more of the same in Los Angeles. Getting rid of Brandon Staley is probably enough of a move to give any Charger fan optimism for a playoff run in Year 1. After multiple seasons of underperforming at every turn, this franchise is poised to be a major problem for Mahomes and the Chiefs in the AFC West.

Reasons for pessimism

It would seem people focus in on Justin Herbert and think the playoffs are a done deal, but look at the veteran losses to this offense. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Gerald Everett to name a few, and we’re supposed to believe some rookies, D.J. Chark, and J.K. Dobbins snap this team right back into contention? To me, its looking like Harbaugh has a little bit of a mini-rebuild to work on first, but at least he already has a franchise quarterback in place so the turnaround could be quick for them.