All 32 NFL teams ranked by Super Bowl chances to start the season

Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images

Ranking every NFL team by its Super Bowl chances entering the 2024-25 season.

The beauty of the National Football League is that after an offseason of hope for all 32 teams, everything gets settled on the field. Things like preseason rankings play no role in determining which two teams square off at the end of the year, and who remains standing, holding the Lombardi Trophy aloft.

That does not mean, of course, that preseason rankings do not make for great content.

Following a rigorous voting process, with ballots submitted by a host of SB Nation’s NFL experts, here are our rankings for all 32 teams, sorted by their chance at being that one team left standing at the end of the season.

32. New York Giants

It’s hard to imagine the Giants being back in mediocrity, but here we are. The primary issue with this team is that they feel rudderless and directionless in Brian Daboll’s third season as head coach. It certainly helps that he’s taking over playcalling duties, but there’s no part of Daniel Jones’ game that suggests he can execute on a vision.

Meanwhile there are some solid pieces on defense here, particularly in the pass rush — but that doesn’t make this picture much brighter.

31. New England Patriots

Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images

The main goal in New England this season?

Get to the end of the year believing that Drake Maye is the long-term answer at quarterback.

Everything else is icing on the cake that looks to be a long year.

30. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are firmly in the middle of a rework, and nobody really has any hopes they’ll actually win a Super Bowl this year. A modest aim would be hitting .500 and maybe pushing for a playoff spot from there — but they’re still some time off.

Everything comes down to new head coach Dave Canales. He worked his offensive magic in Tampa Bay to turn Baker Mayfield into a playoff quarterback, but the Carolina roster is significantly weaker top-to-bottom. It’ll be an interesting experiment to see how this all pans out.

29. Las Vegas Raiders

Gardner Minshew emerged victorious over Aidan O’Connell in the Las Vegas Raiders’ training camp quarterback battle.

What that means for the Las Vegas offense going forward remains to be seen, but it also means we are likely going to get more incredible photographs of the newest Raiders quarterback. Which is a good thing.

28. Denver Broncos

The pairing of Bo Nix and Sean Payton, on paper, seems to be the perfect partnership between coach and quarterback. Nix looks like he was built in a lab to play quarterback for Payton, and the experienced head coach is hoping he has in Nix a modernized version of Drew Brees: A quarterback that can run his offense, make the right decisions with the football, solve the unexpected problems that come playing the position, and sprinkle in some athleticism along the way.

It might take some time for this team to gel, but the arrow is trending up on the offensive side of the ball in Denver.

Defense, however, is another question.

27. Washington Commanders

This is a team committed to building, and to that end this organization has made some really solid moves. The core problem is that you make a very definite decision about the direction of your offense when you hire Kliff Kingsbury, and it’s wild to have his offensive sensibilities paired with an old school defensive coach like Dan Quinn.

Kingsbury’s offense puts immense pressure on the quarterback, and that paired with a weight of expectations in Washington is a lot for Jaylen Daniels to bear. Expecting early success is a fool’s errand here, and they’ll need some time to build this the right way.

26. New Orleans Saints

Does anyone really know anything about the New Orleans Saints? This organization seems to still be reeling from Sean Payton’s departure in 2021, and has no real identity in his absence.

The Saints are more or less just floating along under Dennis Allen, rearranging deck chairs while the ship takes on more and more water. This is still a team that can win, but with key injuries, talent lost to free agency, and Derek Carr at QB it makes it difficult to be bullish about New Orleans in 2024.

25. Arizona Cardinals

Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

The jury is still out on head coach Jonathan Gannon, and that will define the Cardinals chances in 2024. It remains to be seen if Gannon is truly the defensive genius who helped propel the Eagles to a Super Bowl win, or whether he was a guy in the right place at the right time.

It’s too early to be that concerned about Gannon, but Arizona need to be a damn sight better than 31st in the NFL in points allowed to be anything close to a contender. A healthy Kyler Murray paired with Marvin Harrison Jr. should make the Cardinals exciting to watch, and that in itself is progress.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers

The quarterback competition in Pittsburgh came down to Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, two quarterbacks viewed as castoffs by other organizations.

The defense will be good, of that there is no doubt. Head coach Mike Tomlin got this team to the playoffs a season ago with an amalgamation of Kenny Pickett, Mitchell Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph under center. So they are not to be ignored. But in a tough division, and even tougher conference, the path to a Super Bowl for Pittsburgh seems arduous.

23. Minnesota Vikings

The planned “competitive rebuild” of the Vikings went up in smoke. This team needed a rework, and they did it over the offseason. There’s still the fundamentals of Vikings football: Great receivers and a solid pass rush, but in a lot of ways the secondary is still a mess as it has been for years in Minnesota.

It’s difficult to see 2024 as much more than a punt for field position. This team is waiting until J.J. McCarthy is ready to become their franchise QB, and it’s difficult to see them really making much noise with Sam Darnold at QB. That said, the Vikings could be better than a lot of people are giving them credit for.

22. Tennessee Titans

The Titans are an interesting team. While they spent big on free agents such as wideout Calvin Ridley and corner L’Jarius Sneed, the question marks still remain at signal caller. Second-year QB Will Levis has the tools and skill position talent around him to make the leap this year, but has to iron out inconsistent ball placement and responses to pressure. New head coach Brian Callahan should help, though; he was instrumental in getting QB Jake Browning up to speed in Cincinnati.

This team has all the makings of a playoff-caliber squad defensively, but until the quarterback shows signs of improvement, they’ll be stuck here.

21. Seattle Seahawks

Pete Carroll is still a mammoth figure inside the Seahawks organization, even if he’s stepped into an executive role. The franchise made a great decision to hire Mike McDonald as head coach, but this also feels like a franchise content to understand their situation right now.

Seattle has so much young talent, but they’re not making the mistake of rushing the process and running headfirst into the Niners. They’ll bide their time, hope that window closes, and they can strike out with a new long-term franchise QB after Geno Smith hangs it up. That’s a brilliant strategy, but leads to measured success in 2024.

20. Los Angeles Chargers

This season from the Los Angeles Chargers will go a long way towards answering this question: Is the running game back in today’s NFL? Jim Harbaugh’s return to the NFL, and the expected emphasis on the running game in Los Angeles, will certainly put that question to the test.

After all, one of Harbaugh’s first big decisions this offseason? Drafting offensive tackle Joe Alt.

Our friends at Bolts from the Blue described this as a potential “sea change” for the Chargers. Time will tell if it works.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The fate of the Buccaneers this season is tied to what their offense looks like. This is still a team with one of the league’s best receiving tandems in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but there is a mammoth adjustment to be made with offensive coordinator Dave Canales heading to Carolina and taking WR Coach Brad Idzik with him.

Tampa Bay might still be the best all-around team in the NFC South, but it really hinges on their coaching changes whether this year can be a success or not.

18. Chicago Bears

Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images

It’s been a long time since the vibes have been this good in Chicago. Caleb Williams has transformed the mood around this team overnight as the youth movement is completely underway for the Bears.

Early returns on Williams and fellow rookie Rome Odunze are astounding, but Bears fans should pump the brakes just a little on immediate success. The Texans turnaround in 2023 reshaped how fanbases expect rapid return — but they were the exception, not the rule. The Bears are still a little ways off being true contenders, so this season should be about incremental improvement and building.

17. Indianapolis Colts

Often picked as a trendy team to make the playoffs after missing the playoffs by one game, the Colts are trending in the direction of meaningful January football. GM Chris Ballard’s consistent drafting of top tier athletes is starting to pay off, with the development path coming to the perfect stop in 2024.

The critical key to their success is QB Anthony Richardson. Richardson made some strides last year, showing his massive potential before missing the rest of the season due to injury. If his development continues to be on the fast track, the Colts’ offense becomes more dynamic with he and running back Jonathan Taylor in the backfield. The ceiling for Indy is incredibly high—but can they reach it this year?

16. Atlanta Falcons

The most unlikely team to smash the “win now” button, the Falcons have undergone a massive transformation from the team they ended the season as. The organization made a huge splash in free agency by signing Kirk Cousins to a huge contract that screamed “we want to contend right now,” and at least on paper they have the roster to be able to contend in the NFC.

The problem: This is the Atlanta Falcons. For better and worse they’re going to find ways to surprise you. When the dust settles this could either be a team in the NFC Championship game, or 5-12. Neither result would be surprising at all.

15. New York Jets

On paper, the New York Jets have enough talent to be serious contenders in the AFC. With a rebuilt offensive line in front of Aaron Rodgers and playmakers at all levels of the defense, as well as in the offensive huddle next to Rodgers, this could be a very competitive team.

However, there is also a non-zero chance the wheels fall off by Halloween.

14. Jacksonville Jaguars

After falling flat on their face to end the 2023 season, the Jaguars are on a revenge tour in hopes of making the playoffs in 2024. It all starts on offense, where the Jaguars revamped their offense to throw the ball downfield a lot more. Adding WR Gabe Davis from the Bills will give them a bigger body over the middle, and drafting WR Brian Thomas Jr in the first round gives them a field-tilting speed they haven’t had in a long time. The question is if they can protect QB Trevor Lawrence, however. The offensive line struggled last year to get any push in the run game and protection in the passing game, but with vet center Mitch Morse now holding down the pivot, the hope is the interior gets fixed.

DC Ryan Nielsen comes over from Atlanta and changes the Jaguars back to an attacking, four-down front. With the continued growth of EDGE Travon Walker, CB Tyson Campbell and S Andre Cisco, this defense might be ready for the playoffs.

13. Los Angeles Rams

Sean McVay’s team is living on borrowed time. It’s unclear when the wheels will fall off Matthew Stafford, but the Rams are going to keep running it back until he’s truly done. This season adds the mammoth challenge of replacing the irreplaceable after Aaron Donald retired from football.

This was a team that got a ring, it achieved its goal. Now they’re just playing it all out until they need to rebuild. McVay is still one of the best coaches in the league though, so they have a lot of latitude moving forward — but it’s difficult to be bullish for a team sharing a division with the San Francisco 49ers.

12. Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins should again have one of the most explosive offenses in all of football. With Tua Tagovailoa running the show, Mike McDaniel drawing up the concepts, and the speed this team has in the offensive huddle, scoring points should not be a problem.

The biggest concern we have about the Dolphins? Can they win when it counts. Last year Miami got off to a 9-3 start and was in control in the AFC East, only to fumble the division away and ultimately lose on the road in frigid Kansas City over Wild Card Weekend. Is this the year they finally put a complete season together?

11. Cincinnati Bengals

Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images

Getting a healthy Joe Burrow back is obviously a huge step forward for the Cincinnati Bengals and their Super Bowl aspirations. Bengals fans will hope to see Ja’Marr Chase alongside him here in Week 1, but this looks to be a very talented offense.

The questions linger on the defensive side of the football. Can they stop the run when they need to? How will the new safety duo hold up?

And how will the pieces all fit in a stout AFC North?

10. Cleveland Browns

The offensive line is one of the best in football. The defense has playmakers at all three levels and is led by Myles Garrett, one of the most feared defenders in the game.

It all comes down to Deshaun Watson. Is this the year he finally delivers for the Cleveland Browns?

9. Dallas Cowboys

This is it. Everything is on the line for the Cowboys in 2024, and if this goes belly-up there are some brutal decisions down the road. There’s never been a question about Dallas’ talent on paper. This team has a Top 10 QB (Top 5 depending on who you ask), a legitimate game-breaking receiver, one of the most dominant pass rushers in the game, and a solid offensive line to boot.

The question is whether the Cowboys can get out of their own way. This organization is snake bit when it comes to getting over the hump and playing in a Super Bowl. The question this season is whether everyone can rally together and make this whole thing work. As it stands this is a team that could either be 13-4, or start 0-5, fire their coach, and rebuild the whole thing. These are the stakes at play.

8. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles had to content with a lot in 2023. There was a very definite Super Bowl hangover at work, but more importantly this team looked like it was never really comfortable moving on from Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon.

That changes now. The Eagles have gone big with names at offensive and defensive coordinator with Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio respectively, and their level of experience should be enough to push Philly back to being contenders, because their roster is just too damn good. The only hesitation is whether Moore has the offensive creativity to best utilize Jalen Hurts, but this is a fairly small concern in the grand scheme of things.

7. Green Bay Packers

It’s wild that this team has done it again. The Packers managed to seamlessly transition from Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers, and now from Rodgers to Jordan Love.

Rumors of the Packers demise were greatly exaggerated. In fact, Green Bay looks better under Love that the tail end of the Rodgers era, and the team is responding well. It’s unclear if they’re quite ready to challenge the Lions atop the NFC North, but they’re certainly good enough to get into the playoffs.

6. Buffalo Bills

Everything starts with Josh Allen. As long as the Bills have #17 in the huddle, they have a shot.

They’ll need to get production from a reworked wide receiver room, and some new faces will have to step up on the defensive side of the football. The injury to Matt Milano looms large, especially with some of the offenses Buffalo will see this season.

But if nothing else, Allen can find a way to will this team back to the playoffs.

5. Houston Texans

Houston is doing exactly what you should do when you know you have a good rookie QB on a rookie deal. After CJ Stroud lit up the NFL en route to an Offensive Rookie of the Year trophy and a run to the divisional round of the playoffs, Houston loads up on both sides of the ball to become a serious threat in the AFC. EDGE Danielle Hunter comes in to pair with reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Will Anderson to form a fearsome EDGE duo. WR Stefon Diggs was traded to Houston from Buffalo to give Stroud yet another weapon in the passing game. RB Joe Mixon helps with his continuity in the wide zone offense.

There are questions, however. Largely regression from the offense. Stroud led the NFL in TD/INT ratio as a rookie, so there’s bound to be some regression…right? Right? Can the offense run the ball effectively this year, when at times last year they couldn’t move the ball on the ground?

It might not matter, especially if the defense plays a lot better. This team is looking to make a Super Bowl run, and they might be headed that way.

4. Baltimore Ravens

On paper, the Baltimore Ravens look imposing once again. Two-time MVP winner Lamar Jackson paired with Derrick Henry in the offensive backfield? That will give defensive coordinators a lot to worry about each week.

There are questions, of course. How will the defense fare with Mike Macdonald in Seattle? How will this reworked offensive line perform in front of that duo in the backfield? Can Baltimore get enough out of the passing game when they need it?

Still, this is a very, very good football team.

3. Detroit Lions

The Lions’ window is wide open and they’re looking to take the next step into winning the NFC. That path goes through the Niners, which makes it difficult — but there’s a lot to like about Detroit as a complete football team. Offensively the team is elite, defensively they’re good enough — and a lot of the recent drafts have led to creating numerous stars around the roster.

At this point it’s simply about having the mentality and belief that transforms a good team into a perennial contender. Dan Campbell has the mentality to keep this team in order and goal oriented, so we simply wait to see how they respond.

2. San Francisco 49ers

Photo by Chris Unger/Getty Images

The 49ers are running out of excuses — or, more aptly, Kyle Shanahan is. This franchise is still one of the best teams in the entire NFL, but at some point endlessly knocking on the Super Bowl door without stepping through is going to wear out its welcome.

The team has done a good job keeping its window open for as long as possible, but a lot in 2024 depends on whether Brock Purdy is really “the guy” at quarterback, or whether this team still has enough oomph for another run. Regardless, the Niners are dominant and should factor again.

1. Kansas City Chiefs

No team has ever won three-straight Super Bowl titles.

Can the Kansas City Chiefs become the first to accomplish this feat? They have the game’s best quarterback in Patrick Mahomes, a stout offensive line, a defense that held up their end of the bargain last season, and perhaps even some … let’s say karma … on their side.

Will it be enough?