Analytics predicts winners for NFL playoff Wild Card games

NFL Wild Card round: We already know who wins because DVOA says so

While fan bases for non-playoff teams lick their wounds and get ready for the 2025 NFL draft, perhaps the greatest five days of football ever (starting Thursday night) are ahead for everyone to enjoy. The College Football Playoffs will take their next step toward a National Champion before the NFL playoffs take the stage starting Saturday night. While no longer called “Super Wild Card Weekend,” the wild card slate of games should be super anyway.

In a match made in “Hard Knocks: In Season With the AFC North” heaven, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens renew their heated rivalry while a rematch from Brazil, the Green Bay Packers versus the Philadelphia Eagles, highlights the NFC side of things.

The name value in the playoffs is off the chart with Josh Allen looking to build on his, perhaps, MVP season, Jim Harbaugh trying to stop “Chargering” from happening again, Lamar Jackson hoping to shake his playoff struggles, Baker Mayfield’s continued redemption arc and rookies Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix trying to pull off upsets.

Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley, among others, are hoping to prove you can ride a running game to success in the NFL’s postseason.

The number of exciting potential Super Bowl matchups has us salivating at the possibilities.

Now it is time to spin everything forward from the regular season. While we are a month or so away from finding out who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy this year, each round of the playoffs promises to be exciting. Attempting to predict the results of these games, when the best are playing the best, is difficult. Bettors on FanDuel, and FanDuel themselves, are looking for every morsel of information to help make their predictions.

In 2023, DVOA was perfect in predicting matchups in Wild Card weekend so we thought we’d continue to use that analytical piece of data to help inform our predictions. DVOA breaks down the quality of play compared to the league average while adjusting for the strength of the opponents being played. It is one of a couple of catch-all analytics measures that help us understand the beautiful game of football better.

Interestingly, the two teams that earned the top seeds and bye in their conference were not the top overall DVOA team during the regular season. For the second year in a row, that honor went to the Baltimore Ravens with a 41.4$ Total DVOA, down from 45.5% last year. The Detroit Lions are second overall at 34.8% while the Kansas City Chiefs are all the way down at eight at 14.7%

The top 11 Total DVOA teams made the playoffs and all 14 postseason teams fell within the top 17 in that measure.

To be clear, DVOA isn’t perfect nor would it claim to predict the winners of certain games. Too many variables that cannot be codified, like weather, injuries, officiating and more, can play a role in a one-game sample.

Since DVOA has a history of being perfect in predicting Wild Card games, we can’t help but take a look at this year’s Wild Card matchups and what their analytics tell us will happen.

Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans

• Overall DVOA: Los Angeles 9th vs Houston 16th
• Offensive DVOA: Los Angeles 12th vs Houston 26th
• Defensive DVOA: Los Angeles 12th vs Houston 3rd

Edge: Chargers – An interesting matchup with the Texans poor offense (due to key injuries at receiver primarily) being buoyed by their stellar defense but not enough to overcome the perfectly balanced Los Angeles team.

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers

• Overall DVOA: Baltimore 1st vs Pittsburgh 15th
• Offensive DVOA: Baltimore 1st vs Pittsburgh 19th
• Defensive DVOA: Baltimore 6th vs Pittsburgh 8th

Edge: Ravens – Jackson and Henry have taken Baltimore’s offense to another level while their defense remains stout. Russell Wilson seemed to be having a resurgence early in the season but defenses have learned his tendencies and Arthur Smith’s unit hasn’t recovered. The Steelers defense remains very good.

Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills

• Overall DVOA: Denver 6th vs Buffalo 4th
• Offensive DVOA: Denver 16th vs Buffalo 2nd
• Defensive DVOA: Denver 4th vs Buffalo 11th

Edge: Bills – For fans who haven’t watched the Broncos play, this matchup is closer than expected but Denver’s defense has been that good and Sean Payton has Nix playing very well. Buffalo’s defense has been pieced together over the season while Allen continues to be the tide that lifts all ships with the Bills.

Los Angeles Rams vs Minnesota Vikings

• Overall DVOA: Los Angeles 17th vs Minnesota 7th
• Offensive DVOA: Los Angeles 10th vs Minnesota 15th
• Defensive DVOA: Los Angeles 26th vs Minnesota 2nd

Edge: Vikings – Last year, Minnesota was seen as a fraud heading into the NFL playoffs but a great regular season has them prepared to shed that label. The Rams benefitted from a down NFC West but have the championship pedigree to not be ruled out despite being the lowest-ranked DVOA team in the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Commanders

• Overall DVOA: Tampa Bay 11th vs Washington 10th
• Offensive DVOA: Tampa Bay 7th vs Washington 6th
• Defensive DVOA: Tampa Bay 16th vs Washington 23rd

Edge: Commanders – A surprisingly close matchup with overall DVOA despite a significant gap in ranking between the two defenses. While the analytics edge goes to Washington, Tampa Bay has a significant experience advantage in this one.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers

• Overall DVOA: Philadelphia 5th vs Green Bay 3rd
• Offensive DVOA: Philadelphia 13th vs Green Bay 4th
• Defensive DVOA: Philadelphia 1st vs Tampa Bay 7th

Edge: Packers – Perhaps the biggest surprise is seeing Green Bay as the third-best team in the regular season despite finishing third in their own division. The loss of Christian Watson cannot be factored into the above data which calls into question whether you should lean toward the Eagles instead. FanDuel currently has Philadelphia as a 4.5 point favorite.

That DVOA correctly predicted all six games in 2023’s Wild Card round gives credence to its use this year. The data also provides another piece of information as you make betting decisions, discuss the playoffs with your coworkers or while making daily fantasy decisions.

We are excited to see the games played on the field and see whether or not DVOA was able to once again perfectly predict the Wild Card round.