Breaking down the NFL playoff picture coming out of Week 14

Four teams can clinch a playoff spot while one of the playoff teams can clinch their division in Week 15.

One NFL team clinched a playoff spot in Week 14, joining the previous two playoff teams with a postseason berth, and a few others barely missed out and will have to wait until Week 15. We’re here to give you all of the clinching scenarios in the NFL this week.

Before we take a look at the clinching scenarios, here is the complete playoff picture heading into Week 15.

NFC standings after Week 14

1. x-Detroit Lions (12-1)
2. x-Philadelphia Eagles (11-2)
3. Seattle Seahawks (8-5)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6)
5. Minnesota Vikings (11-2)
6. Green Bay Packers (9-4)
7. Washington Commanders (8-5)
8. Los Angeles Rams (7-6)
9. Atlanta Falcons (6-7, 6-3 NFC)
10. Arizona Cardinals (6-7, win over SF, 3-6 NFC)
11. San Francisco 49ers (6-7, loss to ARI)
12. New Orleans Saints (5-8, win over DAL)
13. Dallas Cowboys (5-8, loss to NO)*
14. Chicago Bears (4-8, 2-5 NFC)*
15. Carolina Panthers (3-10)
16. New York Giants (2-11) — eliminated

AFC standings heading into Week 15

1. y-Kansas City Chiefs (12-1)
2. y-Buffalo Bills (10-3, SOV 59 wins)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3, SOV 52 wins)
4. Houston Texans (8-5)
5. Baltimore Ravens (8-5, win over LAC)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (8-5, win over DEN, loss to BAL)*
7. Denver Broncos (8-5, loss to LAC)*
8. Indianapolis Colts (6-7, win over MIA)
9. Miami Dolphins (6-7, loss to IND)*
10. Cincinnati Bengals (5-8)*
11. Cleveland Browns (3-10) — eliminated
12. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-10) — eliminated
13. New York Jets (3-10) — eliminated
14. Tennessee Titans (3-10) — eliminated
15. New England Patriots (3-10) — eliminated
16. Las Vegas Raiders (2-11) — eliminated

Note: In the five-way tie between Cleveland, Jacksonville, New York, Tennessee, and New England, divisional tiebreakers first drop the Titans (loss to Jaguars) and the Patriots (common games tiebreaker to Jets). The Jets then drop behind the Browns and Jaguars due to the conference record tiebreaker and the Browns finish ahead of the Jaguars due to head-to-head. Then it’s the Jaguars and Jets, where Jacksonville wins a head-to-head tiebreaker. The Jets and Titans go head to head after that, and New York beat Tennessee. The Titans beat the Patriots, so they are next.

Teams with an asterisk (*) have been eliminated from divisional contention
Teams with an “x” have clinched a playoff spot
Teams with a “y” have clinched their division

For clarity, we’re only going to include wins and losses and not ties in these scenarios, but ties could potentially factor in, as well. Here are the clinching scenarios for each team.

How can the Houston Texans clinch the AFC South and a playoff spot in Week 15?

The Houston Texans enter the week at 8-5, two games clear of the Indianapolis Colts at 6-7 with four games left to play. The Texans own the head-to-head tiebreaker, though, so going up three games with three to play is enough to clinch the division for Houston.

A Houston win over the Miami Dolphins and a Colts loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 15 is all it would take.

• Texans win AND Colts loss

How can the Pittsburgh Steelers clinch a playoff spot in Week 15?

With the Steelers at 10-3 and the Ravens at 8-5, the Steelers can’t quite clinch the AFC North in Week 15. The two teams have another game to play and enough divisional games left on the docket that there isn’t a way to make it work mathematically.

The Steelers can clinch at least a wild card berth, though. If Pittsburgh wins to get to 11-3, the worst they can finish is 11-6 which would put them out of reach of everyone currently in eighth place or worse.

Pittsburgh can also back in with a loss if both of the seven-loss teams fall to eight losses. Either of these scenarios will guarantee Pittsburgh is playing postseason football:

• Steelers win

– OR –

• Dolphins loss AND Colts loss

How can the Philadelphia Eagles clinch the NFC East in Week 15?

The Eagles clinched a playoff spot in Week 14 but they can seal the deal on a home playoff game with a win and some help in Week 15. If they get to 12 wins while the Commanders fall to six losses, that’s all she wrote.

• Eagles win AND Commanders loss

How can the Minnesota Vikings clinch a playoff spot in Week 15?

The Vikings could have clinched a playoff spot in Week 14 but didn’t get all the help they needed. This weekend, their magic number is down to one and they control their own destiny to a playoff spot.

If the Vikings collect their 12th win, they clinch a spot with the rest of the NFC only able to get to 11-6 at best.

Minnesota could also back in with help from the NFC West. If the Rams lose, the best they can finish is 10-7, behind the Vikings. If the Seahawks lose, the best they can end the year is 11-6 which doesn’t scream “clinch” but with Seattle playing the Rams in Week 18, one of them will lose and one of them will win. That means one team would win the NFC West and the other would be behind the Vikings.

So there are three different ways the Vikings could clinch:

• Vikings win

– OR –

• Rams loss

– OR –

• Seahawks loss

How can the Green Bay Packers clinch a playoff spot in Week 15?

At 9-4, the Green Bay Packers have an uphill climb to win the NFC North. A playoff berth can be had in Week 15, though. At 9-4, they’d need a win to move to 10 wins and with some help, that would be enough.

This scenario would involve a tie, and I know we said we wouldn’t talk ties, but it felt disingenuous to not include it because it’s the only way Green Bay can clinch.

The Packers can move to 10-4, ensuring no worse than a 10-7 record. They need a Falcons loss so Atlanta falls to eight losses because Atlanta beat Green Bay earlier this year. If the Rams and 49ers tie, the best L.A. can do is 10-6-1 and the best the 49ers can do is 9-7-1.

In this scenario, Green Bay beats Seattle this week, handing them their sixth loss. Then for the Rams to get to 10-6-1, they’d need to beat both the Cardinals and Seahawks, giving Seattle their seventh loss. This weekend’s win coupled with Seattle’s seventh loss means the tiebreaker would go to the Packers with L.A. being the NFC West champs.

It’s convoluted, which is why we don’t usually talk ties.

• Packers win AND Falcons loss AND 49ers/Rams tie

Which NFL teams have already clinched playoff spots?

When they moved to 11 wins in Week 13, the Kansas City Chiefs became the first NFL team in the NFL to clinch a playoff spot. The Buffalo Bills clinched the AFC East last Sunday night, ensuring a home playoff game. The Lions secured their playoff spot with the Thursday night win while the Philadelphia Eagles joined them on Sunday.

• Kansas City Chiefs
• Buffalo Bills
• Detroit Lions
• Philadelphia Eagles

Which NFL teams have been eliminated from the playoffs?

In Week 13, the Giants became the first team this season to be officially eliminated from the playoff race. On Black Friday, the Raiders joined them with their tenth loss of the season and they are also eliminated. On Sunday, the Patriots were also eliminated them with a loss and wins by the Chargers and Texans. With the Denver Broncos win on Monday night, they eliminated the Jacksonville Jaguars from the playoffs. In Week 14, the Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans, and New York Jets joined the list.

• New York Giants
• New England Patriots
• Jacksonville Jaguars
• Las Vegas Raiders
• Tennessee Titans
• Cleveland Browns
• New York Jets

NFL Division Standings

AFC East standings

1. Buffalo Bills, 10-3 — division clinched
2. Miami Dolphins, 6-7
3. New York Jets, 3-10 — eliminated from playoff contention
4. New England Patriots, 3-10 — eliminated from playoff contention

AFC North standings

1. Pittsburgh Steelers, 10-3
2. Baltimore Ravens, 8-5
3. Cincinnati Bengals, 5-8
4. Cleveland Browns, 3-10 — eliminated from playoff contention

AFC South standings

1. Houston Texans, 8-5
2. Indianapolis Colts, 6-7
3. Jacksonville Jaguars, 3-10 — eliminated from playoff contention
4. Tennessee Titans, 3-10 — eliminated from playoff contention

AFC West standings

1. Kansas City Chiefs, 12-1 — division clinched
2. Los Angeles Chargers, 8-5
3. Denver Broncos, 8-5
4. Las Vegas Raiders, 2-11 — eliminated from playoff contention

NFC East standings

1. Philadelphia Eagles, 11-2
2. Washington Commanders, 8-5
3. Dallas Cowboys, 5-8
4. New York Giants, 2-11 — eliminated from playoff contention

NFC North standings

1. Detroit Lions, 12-1
2. Minnesota Vikings, 11-2
3. Green Bay Packers, 9-4
4. Chicago Bears, 4-9

NFC South standings

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 7-6
2. Atlanta Falcons, 6-7
3. New Orleans Saints, 5-8
4. Carolina Panthers, 3-10

NFC West standings

1. Seattle Seahawks, 8-5
2. Los Angeles Rams, 7-6
3. Arizona Cardinals, 6-7
4. San Francisco 49ers, 6-7