CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2024: Odds, predictions, value picks for next PGA Tour event

Jason Day poses with the trophy after winning the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson. | Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images

The PGA Tour returns to Texas, where TPC Craig Ranch will play host to this week’s CJ Cup Byron Nelson.

The PGA Tour returns to the Lone Star State for the third time this season, as the CJ Cup Byron Nelson takes center stage two weeks before the PGA Championship at Valhalla.

This week’s field does not feature a ton of firepower, with Jordan Spieth being the only player ranked within the top 20 of the world. Defending champion Jason Day, Tom Kim, and Will Zalatoris will also tee it up this week, as will Presidents Cup hopefuls Adam Scott, Si Woo Kim, and Sungjae Im.

TPC Craig Ranch, located north of Dallas in McKinney, will host this tournament for the fourth time. K.H. Lee won it in 2021 and 2022, at 25-under and 26-under, respectively, the first two instances in which this layout held it.

Day won at 23-under last year.

CJ Cup Byron Nelson Odds:

Here are the current odds for players to win, per DraftKings:

Jordan Spieth +1400
Jason Day +1800
Will Zalatoris +2200
Si Woo Kim +2200
Sungjae Im +2500
Alex Noren +2500
Adam Scott +2500
Tom Hoge +2800
Min Woo Lee +2800
Stephan Jaeger +3000
Byeong Hun An +3000
Tom Kim +3000
Keith Mitchell +3500
Thomas Detry +4000

DraftKings

CJ Cup Byron Nelson Predictions

TPC Craig Ranch presents one of the easier challenges seen on the PGA Tour, so it’s no surprise to see so many birdies on this course year in and year out.

As such, we are looking at players who make birdies in bunches to perform well on this generous layout this week.

Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 5 in his hometown

Jordan Spieth, who has had an up-and-down season thus far, currently ranks 11th on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained and third in birdie or better conversion percentage at 37.54%. This stat takes Spieth’s total number of birdies made this season (134) and divides that by the total number of greens hit (357).

He may play erratic at times, but Spieth has once again relied on his putter to keep himself in the mix on multiple occasions. He obviously has made plenty of birdies, too.

We see him contending again at TPC Craig Ranch, where he finished solo second two years ago and tied for ninth in 2021. We like the Dallas native to finish in the top 5 at +360.

Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images
Jordan Spieth lines up a putt during the 2024 RBC Heritage.

Mark Hubbard continues strong play

Thirty-four-year-old Mark Hubbard has not missed a cut in the 12 events he has played this year. He tied for fourth at the rain-shortened AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, his best individual finish. But Hubbard also finished solo third at last week’s Zurich Classic of New Orleans, alongside Ryan Brehm in the two-man team-play event.

He has played well, partly thanks to his ability to make plenty of birdies. The San Jose State product has made 187 of them this season, which ranks 5th on the PGA Tour. Given that TPC Craig Ranch yields plenty of par-breakers, Hubbard will rely on his solid tee-to-green play to make a ton of birdies this week.

DraftKings has Hubbard listed at +650 to finish within the top 10, but if you feel bullish like we do, +1400 for a top-5 finish is a solid price.

Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images
Mark Hubbard at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans.

Tom Hoge bounces back after missed cut

Widely regarded as one of the best ball-strikers on the PGA Tour, Tom Hoge will contend again this week in the Dallas area.

He missed the cut at last week’s Zurich Classic, but before that, he picked apart Harbour Town Golf Links over the first 36 holes and was in the mix for most of the weekend. A disappointing 2-over 74 final round dropped him a few spots on the leaderboard into a tie for 18th, a result much worse than what his performance indicated.

Hoge has played well in other big events this year, namely in California, where he tied for sixth at Pebble Beach and finished solo eighth at Riviera. He has had a solid year, even though he did not receive an invitation to Augusta National.

Still, Hoge ranks behind only Scottie Scheffler on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approaching the green. He also ranks second in total birdies made this season with 209. His 4.58 birdies per round ranks ninth on the PGA Tour.

Hoge is a sneaky-good putter as well. During his 39 rounds this season, Hoge has averaged 81.5 feet of putts made per round, good for fifth on the PGA Tour. He has all the pieces to play at the highest level, and considering this week’s weaker field, we like Hoge to finish in the top-5 at +650.

Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images
Tom Hoge during the first round of the 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans.

CJ Cup Byron Nelson Longshot Pick

Since missing the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in mid-March, Adam Schenk has recorded three top-20 finishes, including a tie for fifth at the Valero Texas Open and a tie for 12th at The Masters.

At +5500 to win, we like the idea of Schenk finally breaking through and securing his first PGA Tour victory at that price.

Although he struggles somewhat with his ball striking, Schenk still finds plenty of ways to make birdies, ranking seventh on tour in total birdies made this season. He also makes plenty of putts from inside of 10 feet, an essential part of the winning formula regardless of the course.

Schenk has been trending in the right direction, and considering he did not play at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, he will arrive in Texas well-rested and refreshed.

Boiler up!

Photo by Tracy Wilcox/PGA Tour via Getty Images
Adam Schenk during the 2024 RBC Heritage.

CJ Cup Byron Nelson Winner

With the CJ Group taking over the sponsorship naming rights for this year’s tournament, we believe a player represented by this South Korean conglomerate will emerge victorious.

As such, we are picking Si Woo Kim to win his fifth career PGA Tour event this week, his first since the 2023 Sony Open in Hawaii.

Kim has had a solid year, making all 11 cuts while recording five top 20 finishes. His best result came at The Players Championship, where he tied for sixth, while his worst finish came at The Genesis Invitational, where he tied for 44th.

He has a beautiful swing, and the stats reflect that. Kim currently ranks fourth in strokes gained: tee-to-green this season, but his putter has held him back. He is currently 141st on the PGA Tour in strokes gained putting.

Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images
Si Woo Kim at the 2024 RBC Heritage.

Still, the Seoul, South Korea native makes plenty of birdies, a necessity on this course. He has made 178 of them this season—good for 11th on the PGA Tour—and has also recorded nine eagles, which ranks fourth. Kim can go low, which explains why he ranks within the top 12 on tour in both adjusted and actual scoring averages.

Kim resides in the Dallas area, so that should surely help him, too.

We love his price at +2200 to win this week. Only Jordan Spieth and Jason Day have shorter odds than Kim, which is a testament to Kim’s talent and the weak field.

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Jack Milko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation’s Playing Through. Be sure to check out @_PlayingThrough for more golf coverage. You can follow him on Twitter @jack_milko as well.