Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images
JP Acosta dives into the NFL’s biggest trends, including the Saints’ record-breaking offense, a Packers coaching masterclass, and the Patriots’ new position-less defensive star.
Welcome back to Establish the Fun, where football is fun and I’m here establishing that harder than a Big Ten football game in November. It’s Week 3, and some early trends are popping up throughout the league.
Running the ball is back en vogue, throwing the ball absolutely sucks, and defenses are killing the game (except for the Carolina Panthers—sorry, try again next year). However, there are some offenses and aspects of the game that I think have been really cool throughout this first portion of the season and I hope they continue.
Let’s start in New Orleans, where the Saints are marching into the end zone.
The Saints are all about the base
If I were to tell you any NFL offense through the first two weeks of the season would set records for points in a game, who would you offer up first? The San Francisco 49ers? A solid guess, but incorrect. The Kansas City Chiefs? Also wrong. It is the New Orleans Saints, whose 91 points through two games are the most in the NFL since 2009, which saw 93 points in the first two games from … the New Orleans Saints. History repeating itself? I’m not too sure about that, but I do know that after their 44-19 demolition derby of the Dallas Cowboys in the Jerrydome almost automatically earned them a spot on this week’s ETF. So let’s dive in and see what has New Orleans feeling jazzy.
What stands out the most about watching New Orleans is how much base personnel they see from defenses. This is because they practically live out of 12 (one running back, two tight ends) and 21 (two running backs, one tight end) personnel. Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak comes from San Francisco, where the 49ers’ basketball on grass approach to offense was emphasized by how they made use of versatile, dual threat players such as RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Deebo Samuel, TE George Kittle, and FB Kyle Juszczyk. The Saints don’t have that equal firepower, but they have their own versatile bunch of players that makes it hard for teams to keep up with them when they go in their base.
And they are all about that base.
The Cowboys were the perfect team to showcase this offense against as well. As good as they are defensively, they can’t play in base because of their lack of beef up front. The Saints were able to hammer them in their base personnel, and be versatile enough to make the offense unpredictable.
On this play, the Saints are in 21 personnel, with FB Adam Prentice on the field with Kamara, TE Foster Moreau, and WRs Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave. Dallas has to match with their base defense in order to respect their ability to run the ball. Everyone is running this four strong concept, where four guys are on the same side of a passing concept. This is to stretch the defense wide with someone in the backfield going out on a swing pass and someone basically escorting him out there as a lead blocker, then a two-man concept to the frontside and a slant on the backside. Because of the gravity of Kamara, both linebackers run in order to give them numbers. Shaheed runs a quick over the ball route and Carr hits him for nine yards. Easy, intentional offense to isolate the weak points of the Cowboys.
On the big Shaheed touchdown where Derek Carr absolutely lost his marbles, it was once again a play with the Cowboys in base personnel. This time, New Orleans was in 21 but Prentice was lined up next to Moreau as an H-back. Because of the play action, it keeps the Cowboys defense (and Micah Parsons) off balance, creating a clean enough pocket for Carr to unleash this javelin. It’s an incredible throw that beats the corner and the safety, but it’s something Carr has always had in him. This offense is just being able to get that out of him through structure and well-intentioned design.
What also impressed me about the Saints’ emphatic victory was how they went about blocking Parsons. With a tackle group that is uninspiring to say it kindly, the Saints still held Parsons to zero sacks. How they went about it was pretty interesting. On this play, the Cowboys are in their mugged front, which they use to try and isolate Parsons on a tackle, which Parsons will win about 99% of the time. The Saints opt to motion TE Juwan Johnson to Parsons’ side, then full slide their linemen to the left. This means every blocker has the man to the left of them, but instead of leaving Johnson on Parsons, they double him with RB Jamaal Williams. This doesn’t completely stop Parsons—nothing really will. But it gives Carr enough time to get this ball out and get the first down.
The other thing they did to stop Parsons was my favorite: they ran that damn ball, brother. 0.24 EPA per rush and a 41% Success Rate on the ground against Dallas, meaning they were both consistent and explosive, running on this front with zero difficulty. New Orleans attacked the edges of this defense, very similarly to a Shanahan offense in San Francisco, and allowed their linemen to get on the move. It also helps to have Alvin Kamara, a perfect fit for this offense with his vision and balance. LT Taliese Fuaga misses his block on the edge, but Prentice cleans it up. Kamara sees over-pursuit from the Cowboys LBs on this zone run, and he cuts it back to gain six yards.
They also used their own version of positionless personnel a few times that I wanted to highlight, specifically involving Shaheed. The speedy receiver goes in an end around motion here, and it draws the linebackers’ eyes just enough to get him to occupy the same gap the nose tackle is in. Kamara doesn’t even need to do much to gain yards here. By the way, that is Taysom Hill at FB, because why not.
This time, Shaheed is in the backfield, with Kamara out wide and Hill in the background. This play goes for four yards, but watch the stress it puts on the second level when it comes to communication. I’m sure Kubiak and the Saints are coming back to this one soon.
I’ve always thought the Saints had weird personnel. A bunch of guys who could fill multiple roles, but never a coordinator who could maximize them. Through two games with Klint Kubiak as the coordinator, the Saints have their own version of basketball on grass, using their versatile base personnel to isolate helpless linebackers. The Philadelphia Eagles are up next, a team that rarely lives in base and wants to hide their linebackers. How Kubiak attacks a Fangio defense will be another test early on his resume.
Matt LaFleur and the Green Bay Packers bring Sexy Back
Every year, the Miami Heat play a game with like seven of their top 15 guys out. It is then that head coach Erik Spoelstra gains his powers, turning underrated, undrafted guys into a death star machine capable of destroying the NBA.
I’m sure Green Bay Packers’ head coach Matt LaFleur felt like Spoelstra and enjoyed every single second of Sunday’s 16-10 victory. Even without having star QB Jordan Love, the Packers handled business. How? They (wipes lone tear from eye) ran that damn ball all up and down the field. Green Bay ran for 261 yards on Sunday, at a little under five yards per carry clip. Given the volume of runs, that was incredibly impressive with a backup QB in Malik Willis starting the game. They didn’t just run it for the sake of running, however. It was creative, intentional design that helped the Packers on the ground, and it was beautiful to watch.
One of my favorite things they did on Sunday was build off of this formation and personnel grouping. The Packers are in 11 personnel, but WR Jayden Reed is in the backfield and TE Tucker Kraft in the formation. Kraft goes in motion and the Colts follow him. The Packers run counter to Josh Jacobs, but before that fake a sweep to Reed. This little spinner action freezes the Colts’ linebackers, who are slow playing everything, and it cleans up this run look a lot. WR Romeo Doubs comes in to block Kenny Moore, Kraft takes on the linebacker and it’s a smooth eight-yard gain.
Later in the game, they show this counter look again, with Reed going in that direction. But instead of Kraft pulling and taking on a linebacker, he’s essentially becoming a lead blocker for this pitch out to Reed. Matt LaFleur was running the triple option, and I LOVED IT. EDGE Kwity Paye gets left unblocked, but that’s because he has no shot of catching Reed out on the edge. Kraft blocks the corner and Reed gets a big play.
Kraft goes in motion again, but as you can see on this rep with Reed in the backfield, they actually run this spinner sweep. LaFleur had the Colts’ eyes everywhere except the right spot on Sunday, and it really aided their offensive line. RT Zach Tom gets out on the move, Dontayvion Wicks does enough on this block, and Reed is moving with the ball in his hands.
I REALLY liked this one from Green Bay. No two back look, but the Packers remain in 11 personnel with Kraft on the line of scrimmage and Reed off. Reed goes in orbit motion behind the QB and they fake that spinner and run GH Counter. HOWEVER, who’s the H on this play? None other than wide receiver Christian Watson, who follows right guard Jordan Morgan through the gap. Again, watch the eyes of the linebackers. All of the misdirection and flow going one way, and if RB Marshawn Lloyd doesn’t slip this play hits HARD. This is so much fun!
While Love will still probably be out, the Packers have to go on the road to Tennessee to take on the Titans. Tennessee is mean as hell up front, but this doesn’t mean LaFleur shouldn’t try being creative like this in the run game. I’m excited to see how this keeps up, even when Love comes back.
Keion White is the future of modern NFL defense
The Keion White breakout is upon us.
The New England Patriots’ defensive lineman played well to end the 2023 campaign for the Pats, but has completely torn it up to begin 2024. His 16.7% pressure rate is tied with Maxx Crosby for 14th in the NFL among defensive linemen with five pressures and his four sacks are second in the NFL behind Aidan Hutchinson. Along with his continued improvement in the pass rush department comes an insight into the Patriots’ defense and what it truly means to be positionless in the front seven.
Keion White lines up everywhere along the Patriots’ front seven. He’ll line up as a three-technique when the Patriots want to get into five man fronts against the run:
He’ll line up traditionally on the outside in their four man alignments:
And this year, the Pats are using him as the queen on their pressure chessboard, lining him up in the A-gap to create mismatches:
At 6’5 and 285 pounds, White is the rare player who has the strength to play inside, but the quickness to win on the outside as well. His versatility is the reason the Patriots are able to do what they do defensively.
The first thing that stands out about White is how violent he is. He has long, powerful arms and violent hands, and when he clubs you, you feel it. It’s like Paul Bunyan swinging his axe directly through a guard or tackle, and I promise you nobody wants to stay in front of that. White whooped almost everyone on the Seahawks’ front on Sunday in a variety of ways, showcasing his growth as a pass rusher. On this first sack, he’s so quick off the ball and violent with his club and rip move, he generates enough force to get the pressure and cause the sack. That brotha wears long sleeves and no tape or gloves, you know he’s coming in to kick some ass. What stands out is his ability to flatten and get to the QB instead of rushing right past him. That’s a special ability to flip the hips and finish, something White needed to do last year that he’s improved on.
Now, White is lined up at three-technique, outside the shoulder of the guard, and he uses that incredible burst and violence to make a run at the QB. Seattle is lucky Geno Smith rules, because White was bearing down on him with a quickness.
Second verse, same as the first here. White sets up the guard to the outside, and then swipes violently back across his face and forces the incompletion. Those heavy hands are like prime Deontay Wilder punches, you will get moved if he connects. Then, he shows that ability to bend again and doesn’t run past the QB.
He beats the center like a drum for his second sack, an incredibly cool rep from an incredibly cool player. Again, he uses the stutter step and catches the center leaning. This time, he swipes to his right and violently throws the center off balance, before finishing his run at the QB for the sack. Consider me bought in on the Keion White hype. Always have and always will be.
What’s even more tantalizing is that he’s expanding his repertoire of moves. A powerful pass rusher, he’s now adding elements of speed to his game, like this sick “ghost” move, where he dips under the punch of a lineman and makes him hit nothing like he’s seeing ghosts. If he can continue to add this to his game, look out.
I think more players like White are the future of the NFL schematically on defense. Changing the picture is all the rage, and while it matters on the back end, it means just as much up front. Being able to shift into four and five man fronts without taking your best guys off the field is pivotal, and the Patriots have been nailing it for the last few years. White is the biggest beneficiary of this, a player who is strong enough to hold his own at DT, but quick enough to be a credible threat on the edge. This allows defenses to walk linebackers down to the line of scrimmage, or keep adding guys into coverage, because you have versatile guys like White on the team.
New England goes to MetLife to play the New York Jets on Thursday, a primetime chance for Keion White to continue his ascent into one of the most fun players to watch on tape. He’s already there for me.
