How Juan Soto’s postseason on-base streak explains his value

Juan Soto’s unbelievable playoff run tells you everything you need to know about his value.

During the disastrous final game of the 2024 MLB season, after a year of miraculous feats, the great Yankees 26 year old right fielder Juan Soto was able to surprise with one more accomplishment. On his way to the plate for his first at bat, a chyron popped up under his visage saying he was currently in the midst of a 24 game playoff on base streak, which sounds like one of those inflated, “who cares, he’s not Dimaggio” advanced stats era inflated articles of trivia but is currently approaching Miguel Cabrera’s record of 31 consecutive games.

The streak is the perfect articulation of Soto’s charm and immense value as a player. There are few metrics you can find that would argue Soto had a “better” 2024 campaign than his MVP winning outfield neighbor, Aaron Judge. And yet, I’d always thought of the Yankee’s lumbering, $360,000,000 marquee player in the manner Frank Pentangali once described Vito Corleone’s relationship with Hyman Roth. I do business with Aaron Judge, I respect Aaron Judge, but I’ve never trusted Aaron Judge. With Soto it was different. There was an implicit trust from his first moments in pinstripes. He has the fire, the swagger, the energy of a guy who is right at home playing a few blocks from the domino table lined sidewalks of Washington Heights. And this streak is the proof, what sets Soto apart from even his most accomplished regular season peers.

Seasoned, hard hearted Yankee fans have been hurt over and over again, for decades, by Colgate smiles and gaudy contracts handed out to would-be saviors who crumble under the immense pressure that comes with that nine-figure multi year deal in the Bronx, where winning at a high clip is routine and rings are an expectation. Judge is only the latest in this unfortunate 21st century legacy of Yankee stars folding under bright lights. But Soto was the exception, a revelation this year and one of the primary reasons the Yankees came as close as they did to a 28th title. What stood out watching him game to game was what I loved about him all season. He exists outside of the carceral prism of postmodern baseball’s predetermined highest efficiency outcomes (walk, strikeout, homerun). Soto is like water, can take wildly different approaches to at bats based on who he’s facing and the given situation. He digs in and will not let a strike past him until a disgusted pitcher concedes his fourth ball, he hits gappers, seeing eye grounders, scalding ropes, and yes, towering home runs, seemingly always with two outs and men on base, in the exact circumstances the Yankees have famously, agonizingly come up short over and over again the past decade.

With his free agency underway, another Boras bidding war raging, and a $600 million decision that will alter the next decade for one of five baseball teams dropping any day, I thought now was the right time to dig through Soto’s on base streak, dating back to a 2022 NL Wild Card series, for an exact audit that displays the many ways the wildly talented offensive machine provides value for his teams in the highest leverage situations.

2022 NL Wildcard Series: Padres vs. Mets

1 – Game 2, 10/8/2022 (L 3-7) – Soto’s streak began with a bang his first postseason with his second team. He had moved from the Nationals – where he was instrumental in helping bring a title to DC as a 21-year old in 2019 – to San Diego at the trade deadline in 2022. In October, the Fathers squared off against the Metropolitans in the Wild Card round. With the Padres up a game on the road, Soto turned in a sturdy table setting performance, going 2-for-4 with two hits and a walk. He put runners at second and third with two outs in the top of the third with a right side gapper, setting up Manny Machado (who struck out). Then he did it again in the fifth, with a lined single to right. Soto worked a walk in the ninth to load the bases. Machado walked home a run, and then the tying run, Josh Bell, grounded out to lose the game.

2 – Game 3, 10/9/2022 (W 6-0) – A classic Mets dud in a Wild Card rubber match. Fun Soto game. He sac bunts a runner to second who immediately scores on a lined single, makes a good catch to end the sixth, lines a shot off the pitchers heel as the first batter in the seventh, then hits a two out single through the third/SS hole to score two insurance runs to ice the series.

2022 NL Division Series: Padres vs. Dodgers

3 – Game 1, 10/11/2022 (L 3-5) – An underrated aspect of Soto’s performance for the Yankees in the World Series is he had the extended NL West exposure to much of this roster. His start here was inauspicious and nearly killed the streak before it began, with a walk in the sixth in a loss.

4 – Game 2, 10/12/2022 (W 5-3) – We’re warming up! Soto is instrumental in a Kershaw collapse inning. He moves a runner over with a right side ground ball single, then scores on a sacrifice grounder. It’s the only time he gets on base, but Padres get the W.

5 – Game 3, 10/14/2022 (W 2-1) – Soto opens the game with a double, moves to third on a sac fly, and scores with a single in a game that ends 2-1. Never gets on base again, but doesn’t have to.

6 – Game 4, 10/15/2022 (W 5-3) – Bottom of the 7th, Padres trailing 3-0 trying to dig out of the hole. It’s a situation any Yankee fan knows well. You’re trying to come back, a rally presents itself late in the game, you start chipping at the lead, but that final equalizing hit is elusive. Enter Juan Soto. Padres trailing 3-2 with no outs and runners at second and third. Soto hits a right field teardrop, scores the equalizer, moves the man on second to third. Two unproductive outs later, he steals second, just in time for a line drive single that scores two runs. Padres win the game, and the series.

2022 NL Championship Series: Padres vs. Phillies

7 – Game 1, 10/18/2022 (L 2-0) – This is going to be bleak. Zack Wheeler one hits the Padres through seven innings. Soto draws a walk in a nothing burger.

8 – Game 2, 10/19/2022 (W 8-5) – The Daddies get their lone win of the series. Of course Soto has a hand in the big fifth inning rally with a deep line drive that scores one. I don’t know how to explain this but I actually love that he has yet to hit a home run in this streak.

9 – Game 3, 10/21/2022 (L 2-4) – Soto gets hit by a pitch and scores, then singles to left with a groundball in the SS/3B hole in the 8th, but the Padres can’t capitalize.

10 – Game 4, 10/22/2022 (L 6-10) – Soto finally cracks one, but crucially, it’s a 4-4 game top of the fifth, with a man on first and one out. Padres go up 6-4. It would be the last runs they’d score in a shootout.

11 – Game 5, 10/23/2022 (L 3-4) – Wheeler is back but so is Juan Soto, with another home run, a solo shot in the fourth to cut the Phillies’ lead to 2-1. He also walked in the 8th but in what would be a theme for the series, is stranded and the Phillies move on to the World Series.

2023 Season: Padres miss playoffs. Soto traded to Yankees (12/6/23) – A weird move that speaks to the broken economics of the league. The Padres splash the pot in free agency, just miss their shot in 2022, and find themselves with a Swiss Cheese roster and struggling to keep the lights on just a season later. The Yankees gave up a clutch of pitchers but a year later the trade still feels illegal. They were coming off one of their worst seasons in recent memory, and Soto did prove to be the tangible difference. The team turned around a 12 game improvement, good for the third best record in baseball. Then the playoffs started.

2024 AL Division Series: Yankees vs. Royals

12 – Game 1, 10/5/2024 (W 6-5) – In his first postseason at-bat as a Yankee, Soto hits a double with a bloop down the left field line to get Gleyber Torres to third. In what would become a depressing trend for this postseason, Judge strikes out, and no runs score. Soto adds a single in the fifth to advance Torres again, and a ground ball single in the sixth to advance Alex Verdugo. He basically gets two hockey assists, with men he advanced both scoring, establishing what would become a glorious, three week trend.

13 – Game 2, 10/7/2024 (L 2-4) – Soto extends the streak with a walk. This game is partially notable because this is the official beginning of the great Stantonissance.

14 – Game 3, 10/9/2024 (W 3-2) – This may come up again in a bit, and I feel like it’s not as notable a skill as it once was, but Juan Soto has a great eye. He walks to lead off the fourth in a scoreless game, scores on a Stanton double, hits a sac fly in the fifth with one out- in a situation where the Yankees have either popped foul, struck out, or spontaneously dropped dead at the plate from overindulging Brain & Nerve Tonic several thousand times the last 15 years- then walks again in the seventh with the game tied. You’ll never believe this, Judge strikes out. Soto reaches again on an error in the ninth but Stanton had already won the game with a solo jack in the 8th.

15 – Game 4, 10/10/2024 (W 3-1) – Awesome. Soto sets the tone with the second at-bat of the game. Torres hits a leadoff double and Soto plates him with a ground ball single through the right side before the Kansas City faithful can even get to their seats. Eight innings later, Jazz Chisolm- a Bronx folk hero and the greatest vibes guy in franchise history- is smiling and waving them a fond farewell.

2024 AL Championship Series: Yankees vs. Guardians

16 – Game 1, 10/14/2024 (W 5-2) – One of the many things I love about Soto is that he is seemingly able to turn baseball into a game of will. It feels like he’s able to pick his spots, and chooses to set the tone early in games, early in series to establish dominance, and the ALCS was no exception. Soto opens the series by moving Gleyber over yet again with a line drive to center. Judge strikes out looking. His next at bat opens the third, and scores the first run of the series for either team by launching his first HR of the playoffs to deep center right.

17 – Game 2, 10/15/2024 (W 6-3) – Broken record here but Soto moves Torres into scoring position with a single. It’s hard to articulate how confident and enjoyable a viewing experience is when you have a guy who can do this whenever he wants in a tense situation. Judge actually finally kind of converts on a pop fly error. Soto is then intentionally walked in the second, which was a thing throughout the playoffs. You could feel the anxiety he created, the pressure he put on opposing pitching.

18 – Game 3, 10/17/2024 (L 5-7) – I’m actually kind of happy Cleveland took an exciting game, the first ALCS game they hosted in eight years. Soto has an off night, which means he just walked and scored a run on a…..Judge homerun?!

19 – Game 4, 10/18/2024 (W 8-6) – Yet another masterpiece. Soto stakes the Yankees to an early lead with a two-run home run in the first. He walks and scores on a Stanton blast in the sixth. He hits into a double play in the eighth, which is notable because I could be wrong, but I believe this is the first time he’s done that this entire streak.

20 – Game 5, 10/19/2024 (W 5-2) – Soto has a monster game. He hits a double that should have set up an opening rally but results in Torres getting nailed at home. He moves Torres over again top 6th which – after a Judge DP – results in a Stanton two-run home run. But the real reason I predict Juan Soto will be paid at least $600 million this offseason, the reason you may be still reading this, the real reason I’m writing this, or at least why it got green lit by my editor because even without this at-bat I would love Juan Soto and ransom my fandom on the Yankees re-signing him, comes with two out and two on in the tenth inning of a deciding game in a series. It’s easy to view now as a layup win, but was a real anxiety inducing proposition for any Yankee fan who has lived through the last decade.

A Poetic Narration of the Greatest At Bat in the History of Major League Baseball:

First Pitch: Right away it’s clear Soto is not approaching this as a typical at bat. Even for an intense superstar, he is offended by an inside slider that gives the viewer an impression at some point, in what must be a long, storied, rocky history, Hunter Gaddis did or said something untoward to Juan Soto Sr. He lingers uncomfortably long in his stare to the mound, stutter steps, brushes the plate with both feet, and pounds on his thigh.

Second Pitch: Soto holds up on a slider with a check swing. It’s low, an unconscionable call and he knows it’s coming, hunches and grimaces like he’s eight hours into a bout of food poisoning. Soto never even looks back or says a word, but I’m convinced several years after he retires, home plate umpire Alan Porter will suddenly begin getting thinner, and no amount of dietary adjustments will stop his terminal weight loss.

Third Pitch: This is when things gets real. The Cleveland crowd understandably thinks they’re helping Gaddis by increasing volume and intensity of their cheer. Gaddis makes the tragic mistake of throwing a third straight slider. Soto unleashes a stunningly violent swing from his heels, and swings just early, and over the pitch. If you’re watching this along with me, with a nod and a spit, this is the moment Soto decides he’s going to destroy Hunter Gaddis as a human being. My purely speculative theory is, he’s pissed off this guy won’t throw him a fastball, which he believes he would’ve clocked had the pitch not ducked on him, and he’s offended, indignant, and has lost all measure of respect for this hump unworthy of throwing him warm up pitches in an underhand slow pitch softball home run derby in Prospect Park, let alone actual pitches in the extra innings of an elimination ALCS game.

Fourth Pitch: More offspeed garbage. Soto slices it and more nodding. It’s a good thing the league didn’t catch this but I have it on good authority he had an earbud in and was blasting “Ante Up” at this very moment.

Fifth Pitch: Another changeup, Soto chops it right side. He’s telling Gaddis, “I know there’s two strikes but don’t get excited, we’re going to be here for a while”. My favorite Yankee of this wilderness period was Gary Sheffield, an all-time great, a guy who criminally missed the Hall of Fame on his final ballot this year, because it’s clear to me none of the voters had ever really watched him play day in and day out. The Yankees got him late in his career when he was a shadow of himself, but one of the most thrilling sports moments I’ve still ever seen in my life were these at bats Gary would seemingly at random decide, “Fuck this shit, this guy absolutely will not get me out”. And he digs in, and even his resting in the box stance was this dancing, violent thing where his bat would vibrate before the pitch came like a scorpion flexing its stinger, and you just couldn’t get a pitch past the guy. I’m sure this never happened but it felt like he could stretch an 0-2 count into 20 pitches, and this is what it started to feel like Soto was doing at this point.

Sixth Pitch: This pitch really begins in the preamble. The smile comes back, Soto is doing old man calisthenics, his tongue is darting around like he’s Rango. Even the announcers are catching on, sounding like baseball versions of Talia Shire in Rocky IV “How do you get a guy out, who seemingly has no holes?” “It’s been all off speed. Has not thrown him a fastball yet.” He fights off another low and away slider and can’t believe this is still happening.

Seventh Pitch: The magic, the symphony, the baffled king composing. A 1-2 count composed of a ball, a called strike, four consecutive foul balls, and a cock shot to center right. It’s a beautiful, majestic, towering strike that still may be in the air. Years from now, what I will tell my grandchildren, is the final pitch was a four seam fastball. After dutifully sticking to the game script – that you have to assume would’ve eventually resulted in a just miss that landed fair, be it a pop up or ground out, maybe after 20-30 pitches Soto might’ve missed one.

2024 World Series: Yankees vs. Dodgers

21 – Game 1, 10/25/2024 (L 3-6) – Oh right. Soto gets two walks and a single, scores on a Stanton home run, then it all goes south. I had some writing to get done and wasn’t really paying attention.

22 – Game 2, 10/26/2024 (L 2-4) – I would just entirely ignore the final scores and pay attention to how even in this miserable series – in which his team might be outclassed but certainly simply wasn’t prepared to meet the moment – is how brilliant he is at-bat to at-bat, refusing to give up on this series when our long tenured heroes were ready to fold like laundry at the first sign of adversity. Even when he grounds out in the first inning, he advances the runner. He hits a solo dinger off Yamamoto in the third. Then down 4-1 in the ninth, he starts the inning with a single, and after moving to second on a wild pitch (and Judge striking out), Stanton knocks him home. Subsequently, both Volpe and Trevino come to bat constituting the go ahead runs, but the Yankees lose.

23 – Game 3, 10/28/2024 (L 2-4) – Genuinely starting to get mad at myself for pitching this idea because even reliving this series for five entries of this massive piece is like having my organs harvested while awake with no anesthetics. Soto walked in this one to extend the streak.

24 – Game 4, 10/29/2024 (W 11-4) – The rest of the team at last decides to show up for the World Series. Volpe and Gleyber are the heroes this time, but Soto chips in with a walk, a hit and a run.

25 – Game 5, 10/30/2024 (L 7-6) – Soto saves a great, representative postseason game for what some gullible fans might have not exactly let themselves start believing in but couldn’t suppress a back of mind idea that something could maybe potentially start percolating. He of course starts the game with a walk, that Judge brings home with an actual clutch hit. Then walks again in the second. Then of course advances a runner to second with a right side groundball gapper in the fourth. Then even once the world collapses and the game is tied, walks and becomes the go ahead run when Stanton hits a sac fly in the sixth. And then I think they just kept playing for a while before randomly dropping their gloves and walking home like it was The Sandlot.

Soto has to hang to the side and watch a team he beat two year earlier with the Padres pop champagne on his field. But I’d like to think it just pissed him off, that it primed him to come back angrier, and better than ever next year. Either way, he can rest assured knowing it wasn’t on him, that he did his part. Now the entirety of New York, the real New Yorkers, can only sit back, wait, hope, and pray that this is the first chapter in a beautiful friendship, and not the tragic conclusion.