How the Arizona Cardinals have unlocked the best version of Kyler Murray yet

Kyler Murray and the Cardinals passing game are fun to watch

The Arizona Cardinals are 6-4, with a one-game lead over the San Francisco 49ers in the win column. This is a vast improvement for a team that finished with a 4-13 record last year, and a matching 4-13 record two seasons ago.

There are several reasons for the turnaround in the desert, including a defense under head coach Jonathan Gannon and defensive coordinator Nick Rallis that is finding creative ways to slow down opposing offenses. However, improvement on the offensive side of the football team is another key reason for their success this season.

This includes a strong start from quarterback Kyler Murray.

Through ten games Murray is playing perhaps the best football of his NFL career, posting an Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt of 7.13 (which would be his career-high mark), a QBR of 75.7 (which would represent another career-high), and a quarterback rating of 100.8 (which, if you’ve caught the theme here, would be another career-high mark).

Looking at Quarterback Efficiency — a metric comprised of Expected Points Added per Play and Completion Percentage Over Expected as calculated by RBSDM — Murray is among the league leaders. His EPA + CPOE composite of 0.139 has him tied with Jared Goff for eighth in the league:

Studying Murray on film, you see some development in his game. While he still has the raw athletic ability to make plays outside the pocket and off structure, we are also witnessing Murray winning from the pocket, and doing some of the little things that still matter at the quarterback position, such as using his eyes to influence defenders and working deep into his progression reads on given concepts.

Take, for example, this four verticals concept out of an empty formation from last week’s 31-6 win over the New York Jets:

Murray uses his eyes to perfection, influencing the underneath linebacker in the middle of the field to hold in position over the football, which creates enough space for tight end Trey McBride. Murray then snaps his eyes to the left and fires a quick throw to McBride — who is emerging as a core piece of the Arizona passing game — for an 18-yard gain.

This play also exemplifies another aspect of the Cardinals’ offense: Throwing out of bigger personnel. Studying Arizona’s passing game this season, the Cardinals are finding big plays out of 12 or even 13 personnel, offensive packages with either two or three tight ends on the field. This play comes with Arizona running 13 personnel with three tight ends (McBride, Elijah Higgins, and rookie Tip Reiman) in the game. On this play in particular they start with running back Trey Benson, another rookie, aligned in the backfield next to Murray. But he then shifts outside to align along the numbers, and with a cornerback across from him, Murray knows the Jets will be in zone coverage.

Throwing out of bigger personnel groupings also gives the Cardinals an advantage when using play-action. Arizona has one of the more efficient run games in the league, as noted in this chart from RBSDM:

Their run game is well above league average in terms of EPA per rushing attempt, and is among the league’s best in EPA per passing attempt, as you can see above. When you pair an efficient running game with big personnel, you get the defense thinking run when you break the huddle with those groupings.

That makes plays like this from Arizona’s win over the Chicago Bears two weeks ago possible:

The Cardinals line up using 13 personnel — three tight ends, one running back, and one wide receiver — for a 2nd and 6 situation. Murray executes a run fake to perfection, even giving the running back a delayed look following the fake handoff before rolling out to the right. He then finds Higgins working from left to right on a crossing route for a solid gain.

Here is another example of Arizona pairing play action with 13 personnel, from the Cardinals’ 28-27 win over the Miami Dolphins. The concept used on this play is one of everyone’s favorites, as McBride leaks across the formation and away from the flow of the play:

Murray executes another run fake and rolls to his right, before throwing back to McBride who leaks away from the flow of the play, toward the left sideline. This play goes into the books as a 37-yard gain.

The benefit for an offense when throwing out of bigger personnel is that you often influence the defense to respond with bigger personnel of their own. On the play against the Dolphins, for example, Miami aligned with 4-3 personnel, with just four defensive backs in the game. The Bears example saw Chicago aligned with a 4-3 front of their own, again with just four defensive backs in the game.

Let’s not forget, Arizona capitalized on their poor finish from a season ago to pick wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. at the top of the first round last spring. In many of these formations, Harrison is either the lone WR on the field, or one of two WRs in the game. This has created opportunities for him as well.

Take, for example, this completion from early in Arizona’s win over the Jets, with the Cardinals using 13 personnel and play action to create space for Harrison on a crossing route:

Even some of Harrison’s touchdowns this year have come with Arizona throwing out of bigger personnel. This touchdown pass on a deep crossing route against the Dolphins came when Arizona paired 12 personnel — two tight ends, one running back, and two wide receivers — with play action:

And if you think back to Harrison’s breakout performance in Week 2, where he caught 4 passes for 130 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Los Angeles Rams, both touchdowns came with Arizona using either 12 or 13 personnel. Here is the first, with Harrison running a post route against Cover 4, and Arizona aligning with 13 offensive personnel:

The second touchdown? That came with 13 personnel in the game and yes, another play-action design from Arizona, with Harrison simply running away from the coverage as Murray gives this route time to develop:

The Cardinals are 6-4, and getting the best version yet of Kyler Murray under center.

Pairing an efficient running game with the concepts they are using in the passing game when throwing out of bigger personnel has unlocked that version of Murray, and given the Cardinals a real shot at winning their first division title since 2015.