Can South Carolina repeat? Can Paige Bueckers end UConn’s national title drought? Will JuJu Watkins power USC to the Final Four?
The storylines entering the women’s NCAA Tournament this year seem endless.
Despite losing a few games in the regular season, Dawn Staley’s South Carolina Gamecocks are a No. 1 seed and have the chance to become the first back-to-back champs in the sport since the Breanna Stewart-led UConn teams of the mid-2010s. Speaking of the Huskies, this is presumably Paige Bueckers’ final attempt at cementing her legacy in Storrs by ending UConn’s title drought. Despite having a year of eligibility remaining, it’s widely assumed — and Bueckers has said as much — that she’ll enter the WNBA Draft next month.
Elsewhere, Madison Booker and Vic Schaefer seemed poised to take Texas to the Final Four for the first time in more than 20 years, and showed in the regular season that the Longhorns certainly have the talent to win the national title for the first time since 1986. Another team that hasn’t been on the mountaintop of women’s college basketball since the 1980s — when Cheryl Miller was guiding them — are the USC Trojans, who are also a No. 1 seed with a squad led by superstar sophomore JuJu Watkins. Their crosstown rival, UCLA, bested them for the Big Ten tournament title and have the best center in the country on their roster in 6-foot-7 Lauren Betts. The Bruins have never been to a Final Four. Is this the year Cori Close’s team breaks through?
The last time Notre Dame was in the Final Four was 2019 in Tampa, Florida. The national semifinals are there are again this year, and the Irish — now coached by Muffet McGraw’s protege in Niele Ivey — are led by arguably the best trio of guards in the country in Hannah Hidalgo, Olivia Miles and Sonia Citron. But the Irish have lost three of their last five games. Can Notre Dame regain its elite form to bring another championship back to South Bend?
Elsewhere, Kim Mulkey’s LSU Tigers are battling injuries, but when healthy they certainly have the talent to make the Final Four. N.C. State — which won a share of the ACC’s regular season title and appeared in the league championship for the fifth time in six years — is aiming to make its second straight national semifinal appearance with their own group of talented guards, led by the electric Aziaha James.
Kara Lawson has Duke contending again. Kenny Brooks has turned Kentucky around. TCU has potential to make it to Tampa with Hailey Van Lith leading the way. Vanderbilt has one of the most talented freshmen in the country. And potential Cinderella stories could arise from the likes of Fairfield, South Florida, or the Ivy League. Arkansas State and Montana State have already given us a glimpse at March’s madness.
Oh, and units are here. Women’s basketball teams are finally going to get paid for their March Madness performance.
Let’s dive into the bracket with some bold predictions.
Florida State will advance out of LSU
The Tigers are banged up right now. At their Selection Sunday watch party, star forward Aneesah Morrow was still wearing a padded boot on her left foot and Flau’Jae Johnson didn’t play at all in the SEC Tournament. Even though Kim Mulkey says both players are good-to-go for the NCAA Tournament, it doesn’t feel like they’ll be totally healthy. Even if they are, Florida State poses a real challenge for the Tigers. Not only do they have to figure out how to stop a dynamic guard — and the nation’s leading scorer — in Ta’Niya Latson, but senior forward Makayla Timpson averages 17.6 points, 10.6 rebounds and 3.2 blocks per game, the latter of which is third in the nation. Florida State is better than its record and seeding says.
Fairfield will upset Kansas State
You may have noticed that a lot of folks who cover the Big 12 shared the same video in the past week of Ayoka Lee practicing. You can be the judge of how healthy she looks, but I’m not totally sold. And as we’ve seen this season, when Lee isn’t healthy, the Wildcats are pretty beatable. They’re 6-6 when she isn’t in the lineup. Meanwhile, Fairfield lost just four games all year and one of those defeats was by just two points at Oklahoma State in November. The Stags have the 10th best 3-point defense in the country, are 13th in effective field goal percentage, are fifth in offensive rebounds surrendered per game, and 17th in assist-turnover ratio. Fairfield can play both ends at a high level and will pose problems for Jeff Mittie’s Wildcats.
We’ll see Duke vs. UNC in the Sweet 16
In 2022, we saw these two rivals — separated by less than 10 miles — meet in the Final Four in men’s basketball down in New Orleans. This year on the women’s side, we’ll probably see them play in the Sweet 16 in Birmingham. Vanderbilt and Mikayla Blakes feel like the biggest threat to Duke in the first weekend, while West Virginia could turn its second round matchup against the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill into a real rockfight. But the odds say we’ll get to see Courtney Banghart and Kara Lawson face off on a big stage during the last weekend of March.
Hailey Van Lith vs. Louisville will be must-watch
I just watched this Louisville team beat Duke in Cameron Indoor Stadium a few weeks ago. If anyone can figure out how to stop Hailey Van Lith, it’s Jeff Walz, who coached her for three years.
Final Four
I have N.C. State beating UCLA in the Spokane 1 Elite Eight to get to the Final Four for the second straight year. While I think Betts could pose a problem for the Wolfpack, freshman Tylda Trigger has played well and I think can hold her own in the paint. But I don’t think the Bruins really have an answer for the trio of Aziaha James, Saniya Rivers and Zoe Brooks.
For Birmingham 2, I don’t see any opponent posing a real threat to South Carolina, though Duke or North Carolina has played the Gamecocks tough at times in recent years. In Birmingham 3, Notre Dame rediscovers its groove and I think they’ll narrowly beat Texas in the Elite Eight, just like the Irish did in the regular season.
Few teams in the country are playing as well as UConn right now. While JuJu Watkins will likely win the national Player of the Year award, I think Bueckers and the Huskies are motivated to win big in her last season. So, for the second straight season, the Trojans’ campaign ends in the Elite Eight.
In the Final Four, I just don’t see UConn being good enough defensively to stop N.C. State. On the other side of the bracket, I sort of think the same thing. South Carolina has played some really good teams this year — but have they beaten a squad with Miles, Hidalgo and Citron?
And so, in the national title game, we get a rematch of perhaps the best game of the regular season: N.C. State versus Notre Dame. After falling in double overtime in Raleigh, this time the Irish get revenge.
Here’s my full bracket:
