Fairfield, South Florida, Montana State and Harvard are among the mid-majors you should keep an eye on in the women’s NCAA Tournament.
Upsets happen with much less frequency in the women’s NCAA Tournament than the men’s.
For example, a No. 2 seed has never beaten a No. 15 seed, and a No. 3 has never beaten a No. 14 seed.
But upsets do happen.
Just last year we saw No. 11 Middle Tennessee State defeat seventh-seeded Louisville. The year before that, Florida Gulf Coast took down Washington State, Princeton beat Baylor, and Toledo topped Iowa State. Those were in addition to two No. 1 seeds — Indiana and Stanford — losing on their home floor in the second round.
In 2022, a No. 10 seed in Creighton made it all the way to the Elite Eight, and fellow 10-seed South Dakota made it to the Sweet 16. Double-digit seeds in Princeton and FGCU also won first-round games that year.
As investment in women’s basketball has increased across the country, so has the parity. This year, we’re bound to get at least one double-digit seed winning its first-round game — and maybe going even farther into March.
Before you print out your bracket and fill in your picks with Sharpies, consider these mid-majors to potentially pull off upsets and go on deep runs.
Fairfield
Under Carly Thibault-DuDonis, the Stags have established themselves as a mid-major power in the sport, going 57-6 overall with a pair of MAAC tournament titles. Along the way, Fairfield has beaten major conference opponents like Rutgers, St. John’s, Arkansas, Villanova and Wake Forest. Earlier this season, they lost at Oklahoma State — a No. 7 seed in this tournament — by just two points.
Fairfield has one of the best defenses in the country, ranking 10th nationally in points allowed per game, 22nd in defensive rating, 10th in 3-point defense, fifth in offensive rebounds surrendered, and 10th in defensive rebounding. In the first round, the Stags are facing a Kansas State team that will be playing with a less-than-totally-healthy Ayoka Lee. While Lee is expected to be on the court, how effective she will be remains unclear. With her, the Wildcats are 20-1. Without her, they’re 6-6.
If Lee isn’t in her dominant form, Fairfield could win. Even if she plays well, the Stags could still make this a real game and send Jeff Mittie’s squad back to Manhattan early.
Montana State
The Bobcats went 28-3 this season and notched impressive wins over the likes of UCF and Northern Arizona. Defense is what they do best, as they lead the nation in both steals per game (14.2) and steal rate (17.2). They’re also fifth in the country in turnovers forced per game (22.8) and ninth in points allowed per play (0.69). They also make 77.9 percent of their free throws as a team, which is good for 20th nationally.
Simply put, the Bobcats have a tendency to put the clamps on their opponents and force them into mistakes. In the first round, they play an Ohio State team that has lost five of its last 10 games and had double-digit turnovers in each of those games, and an astounding 19 cough-ups against Maryland.
Harvard
Coached by Carrie Moore, Harvard is in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2007. Long before UMBC beat Virginia on the men’s side, the Crimson were the first 16-seed to beat a No. 1, upsetting Stanford in the 1998 tournament.
This year, the Crimson are led by a bonafide star in Harmoni Turner, who is ninth in the nation in scoring with 22.5 points per game. And she has a knack for playing well in big games — recently scoring 44 points against Princeton in the Ivy Madness semifinals, coming up with 24 points and six steals in a November win at Indiana, and scoring 41 points in a victory over Boston College.
Harvard faces a Michigan State team that is sound defensively, but has had some struggles in shutting down talented guards. In recent games, JuJu Watkins scored 28 points against them and Iowa’s Lucy Olsen had 21.
South Florida
The Bulls are NCAA Tournament regulars out of the American Athletic Conference. They’re in the Big Dance for the ninth time since 2013 and have advanced to the second round five times in that stretch, all coming under head coach Jose Fernandez.
USF is 23-10 this season, but most of those losses came to really good teams. The Bulls’ non-conference strength of schedule was seventh nationally. They fell against squads like UConn, Vanderbilt, Louisville, Mississippi State, South Carolina and TCU — all tournament teams this season — but also beat Duke, the ACC champs.
The well-rounded Bulls are armed with a great 3-point shooter in Sammie Puisis, a top-notch floor general in Mama Dembele, and solid rebounders in the frontcourt in Carla Brito and L’or Mputu. In their first round matchup, Tennessee should take them incredibly seriously.
