Mel Kiper Jr’s latest NFL Mock Draft has some stunning surprises

Here are the most shocking things from Kiper’s mock.

With the NFL Combine around the corner we’re starting to see more and more mock drafts. This week Mel Kiper Jr. put out his second of the cycle, and there are some serious head scratchers in this one, at least based on the consensus around the rest of the football world.

That’s not to say Kiper’s approach is wrong, because his mocks are always based in what he’s hearing in scouting circles — and truth be told, this tends to be more accurate in the end result than independent talent evaluators. Even if independent draft analysts often have a better track record of picking good players than NFL teams do. So here are the things that really stood out in Kiper’s 2.0 mock.

The gulf between the QBs

There is a very big difference in being taken in the Top 3 of the NFL Draft and the back-end of the Top 10. That’s exactly what Kiper sees happening with Miami’s Cam Ward, followed by Shedeur Sanders.

Kiper has the Browns selecting Ward with the No. 2 overall pick, citing that while he has Sanders as his QB1, the NFL is clearly settling on Ward being the top passer in the class. If Cleveland takes a QB with their top pick it’s a little surprising they would take Ward over Sanders, largely because the offense Kevin Stefanski runs with the Browns is so similar to that of Colorado’s.

The flip side is that Ward doesn’t come with the same baggage — and by “baggage” we mean “Deion Sanders.” Shedeur has done nothing to warrant off-field criticism, but there is a concern that Deion will be a huge part of his career, and also be willing to talk publicly about anything he disapproves of.

These worries are so pronounced that Kiper has Shedeur Sanders falling all the way to the New York Jets with the No. 7 pick, meaning he would get passed over by teams with desperate QB needs like the Giants and Raiders. We’ll need to see how this one plays out, because the fall would be dramatic.

Running backs are back baby

The shift in the league back to the running game was so pronounced in 2024, and we see that really jump forward in this mock draft. Kiper has not one, but two running backs going in the Top 15 with Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty going to the Raiders at No. 6, followed by Omarion Hampton to the Cowboys at No. 12.

This would make it one of the most RB-heavy first rounds in years, and that’s not a big stretch considering teams around the league are moving more towards run-first schemes.

T-Mac goes where?!

The biggest plummet from consesus in Kiper’s mock is Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan, who is generally accepted to be a pick anywhere from 5-to-10, but drops to the Chargers at No. 22 in this mock.

It’s possible to be sure, with teams around the league reevaluating the need for elite receivers. That said, it would still be surprising to see someone with T-Mac’s blend of size and athleticism fall so far in the draft that the Chargers pick him up on the cheap.

James Pearce Jr. falls out of the first round

Here’s one to really keep an eye on, and a place where Kiper could definitely be leveraging his NFL connections. James Pearce Jr. was the No. 1 EDGE for the majority of the College Football season, only to see Abdul Carter overtake him.

Now Carter is projected as the No. 1 pick, and Pearce Jr. is out of the first round. There have been some lingering character concerns around the Tennessee pass rusher when it comes to his motor and approach to football, which is scaring some that he coasted on talent alone. That coupled with an off-field incident with police has caused many to take him off first round boards.

With 7.5 sacks this season it’s wild to see him not in the mock at all though, especially with lesser pass rushers being taken at different positions.

Will Johnson isn’t in the Top 10

There’s a very definite argument to be made that Will Johnson is the CB1 in this draft class, but the edge in draft position goes to Travis Hunter based on Hunter’s multi-use ability in the NFL. Still, it’s weird to see a mock where Johnson makes it out of the Top 5, let alone the Top 10.

In this mock he lands with the 49ers at No. 11, which would be the steal of the draft. Unless there’s something Kiper knows that the rest of the world doesn’t, this feels extremely unlikely.