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Napheesa Collier has put together an incredible individual season, the Minnesota Lynx are soaring — and the MVP race between her and A’ja Wilson is far from over.
A few weeks ago, the race for MVP appeared finished. A’ja Wilson was in the midst of a historically dominant season (she still is), and no other WNBA player’s individual stats rivaled hers.
But, what Napheesa Collier — and the Minnesota Lynx — have done this month demands that this race be re-visited, despite the fact that a sizable gap between Collier and Wilson’s counting stats remains.
Both Collier and Wilson have enjoyed tremendous individual success this season, and both have solidified themselves among the league’s top players. Wilson is averaging 27.1 points per game on an effective field goal percentage of 53.3%, while Collier is averaging 20.8 points on an eFG% of 53.4%. Both rank among the league’s leading rebounders — Wilson averaged 11.7, Collier 9.9 — and both anchor their teams both offensively and defensively.
In a typical year, either candidate would make a compelling recipient for the highest individual honor in women’s basketball. In this year, it’s closer than been discussed. Wilson clearly has a sizable advantage in scoring, which was punctuated by a 42-point outing against the Wings earlier this week. But, the disparity between the two’s team success warrants Collier getting a closer look at MVP. And maybe, just maybe, she’s done enough to actually receive it.
The Lynx have been good this season — really good
To put it plainly, Minnesota is in the midst of an incredible regular season. After finishing with the league’s 6th best record last year, the Lynx have far exceeded expectations for the 2024 season. They haven’t lost a game since July 14th, and most recently, they passed the Sun for the second-best record in the league, now sitting only behind the New York Liberty.
Napheesa Collier has been the engine that’s made it all go. With Collier in the lineup, the Lynx have had a 21-5 record this season, which would give them the best win percentage of any team in the WNBA (80.7%).
Meanwhile, Las Vegas sits seven games behind Minnesota in the WNBA standings, holding an 18-12 record (a 60% win percentage). As a current fifth place seed and have won just two of six games since the Olympic break.
The Lynx’s success has not been solely Collier’s doing. Kayla McBride and Alanna Smith have both had stellar seasons, and the team as a whole is shooting a scorching 39.2% from three. Courtney Williams has been critical in key games, and Bridget Carleton is somehow hitting 43.9% of her threes.
But, this Lynx squad is far from a super team — they only had two All-Stars this season, whereas most other playoff teams had at least three, including the Aces (4), Sun (3), Liberty (3), Mercury (3), and Fever (3). This isn’t a team that’s been there before.
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Napheesa Collier has been a plus-minus machine for Minnesota
Plus-minus is not a perfect stat, but it does help paint a picture of just how much better the Lynx have been with Collier on the floor than the Aces have been with Wilson on it. At +9.5 per game, Collier has had the second-best plus-minus in the entire league (trailing only the Liberty’s Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, who has a plus-minus of +10.1). Wilson, meanwhile, sits outside the top 25 player in plus-minus; the Aces have outscored opponents by +3.5 points when she’s been on the floor.
There’s also the reality that Collier individually outplayed Wilson both times the two teams faced off last week. In the Aces and Lynx’s first matchup in August, Collier outscored Wilson (23 points to 15 points) and Minnesota emerged victorious. A few days later, on August 23, the Lynx once again beat the Aces 87-74, and Collier exploded for 27 points and a career-high 18 rebounds — more rebounds than the entire Aces squad had combined. Wilson, who scored 24 points that night, grabbed just 7.
After Minnesota’s back-to-back defeats of the Aces — and their continued rise in the standings — overlooking Collier would be unfair.
Comparing Napheesa Collier and A’ja Wilson defensively
A’ja Wilson has a slight edge in “stocks” (steals and blocks) — she averages 2.7 blocks and 1.9 steals, while Collier averages 1.4 blocks and 1.9 steals. But those stats matter less when you take into account that the Lynx’s defense has been significantly better than the Aces this season, and that Napheesa Collier has had a far superior defensive rating (91.5) than Wilson (100.6). Defense obviously involves more than just one player, but stocks don’t capture an accurate picture completely, either.
Napheesa Collier’s MVP case primarily rests on the Lynx’s team success — but that alone is a pretty strong case to have. In the last 10 years, only one WNBA player won MVP despite not being on a top-two seed: Elena Delle Donne, who won MVP in 2015 as a member of the #4 seeded Chicago Sky.
Outside of Delle Donne, every other winner in the past decade has hailed from a top-two seed, with 6 of the last 7 winners representing the very best team in the league. The last time a WNBA player outside of the top four teams in the WNBA was awarded MVP was 2008, when Candace Parker was a member of the Sparks.
If the Lynx continue winning, Collier continues dominating, and the Aces continue slipping, there’s no unequivocal reason to move away from the pattern of selecting MVPs from top-tier teams. Napheesa Collier could very well warrant votes if her excellent play from the month of August continues. And, if she’s able to make up some ground in the scoring disparity between her and Wilson during the last quarter of the regular season, she very well could be the front-runner.
