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Here’s how we think the 2024 NBA Draft will actually play out.
The 2024 NBA Finals are over with the Boston Celtics emerging as champions. The league is now ready to turn the page to next season, starting with the 2024 NBA Draft. The first round of the draft is happening on Wednesday, June 26 on ESPN starting at 8 p.m. ET, and for the first time, the second round will happen the next day.
This has always been a tricky draft to project due to the lack of consensus at the top of the class. Information is slowly starting to trickle out about how teams are approaching this draft, and at this point a framework for team preferences is slowly starting unfold.
Last week, we dropped a mock draft based on what we would do with every pick. This week, we’re delving into the latest intel around the draft to project how the first round looks like it will actually play out. The Hawks hold the keys to the draft at No. 1, and their decision will set the rest of the picks into motion.
1. Atlanta Hawks – Donovan Clingan, C, UConn
No one knows what the Hawks are going to do with this pick mostly because there hasn’t been a consensus No. 1 player in this class at any point in the cycle. The fact that Atlanta was preparing to draft at No. 10 entering the lottery before jumping all the way up to No. 1 probably didn’t help matters. We know the Hawks have scouted French wing Zaccharie Risacher in person at a playoff game and brought him in for a workout. There are rumors the team is also considering trading down, perhaps to target UConn center Donovan Clingan. With Washington and Houston lurking as potential Clingan suitors slightly down the order, it’s starting to feel like Atlanta could just take the Huskies big man at No. 1.
The Hawks’ defense has always been bad since they drafted Trae Young. Last season, Atlanta finished No. 27 in defensive efficiency. Rim protection was a distinct weakness, with the Hawks finished No. 26 in blocks per game. Clingan is the draft’s best shot-blocker, and arguably its most impactful overall defender. An underrated factor in this pick is that Atlanta owes unprotected first round picks to the San Antonio Spurs in 2025 and 2027. Clingan feels more ready to contribute than someone like Sarr (who was my personal pick here last week), and that might make the difference for a team that doesn’t want to surrender a high pick next season.
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2. Washington Wizards – Alex Sarr, C/F, Perth Wildcats (France)
Sarr has only worked out for one team according to HoopsHype, and that’s the Washington Wizards. This feels like an obvious match if he’s still on the board at No. 2. Sarr has the best physical tools in the draft as an athletic 7’1 big man with a 7’4 wingspan who can run the floor, make plays above the rim on both ends, and has shown flashes of ball handling and shooting ability. The Wizards’ rebuild still feels like it’s in its infancy, and that means someone like Sarr — obviously talented but still years away from his potential ceiling — also fits the team’s big picture timeline.
3. Houston Rockets – Reed Sheppard, G, Kentucky
The only elite prospect Houston has brought in for a workout so far is Clingan. There have also been rumors that the Rockets are looking to trade this pick, maybe even seeing if they can get the Nets to bite on a Mikal Bridges deal. If Houston stays at No. 3, Sheppard makes a lot of sense as a long-term addition to the backcourt. Sheppard is tiny by today’s standards (6’3 with a proportional wingspan), but he’s an elite three-point shooter (52 percent from deep) and has razor sharp hands defensively that help him force turnovers. The Rockets have enough freak athletes to cover for Sheppard’s limitations, and he can help Houston’s existing young core by providing spacing and more transition opportunities via turnovers.
4. San Antonio Spurs – Zaccharie Risacher, F, JL Bourg (France)
Risacher has only worked out for the Hawks and Spurs, according to HoopsHype. This is starting to feel like his floor, and the Spurs would probably be elated to have him fall. Risacher is a good fit in San Antonio, and not just because he’s another young Frenchman to put around Victor Wembanyama. The 6’9 wing played a big role in the top French league as an 18-year-old, contributing shooting, on-ball defense, and transition playmaking. He hit more than 39 percent of his threes on the season, and had some of his best games deep in the playoffs. The Spurs can still fill their obvious need in the backcourt with their next pick at No. 8 overall.
5. Detroit Pistons – Matas Buzelis, F, G League Ignite
The Pistons are still fleshing out their new front office led by Trajan Langdon, and he has a ton of work to do coming off a 14-win season. He inherits a team built by former executive Troy Weaver that’s loaded with former lottery picks (Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson, and Jalen Duren) who haven’t gelled into anything resembling a competitive NBA team yet. Buzelis is a nice on-paper fit in the existing young core, adding a raw but talented 6’10 forward who flashes perimeter skill and showed surprising toughness at the rim defensively. I continue to really like the fit for Rob Dillingham here, because the Pistons desperately need shooting and playmaking. Buzelis just feels more likely to go in the top-5, and this is a sensible enough fit.
6. Charlotte Hornets – Stephon Castle, G, UConn
One of the few rumors of this draft thus far is that Castle wants to play point guard in the NBA, and doesn’t want to work out for teams with star point guards already in place, according to ESPN. Castle hasn’t had any workouts yet according to the HoopsHype tracker, but insiders are saying he won’t slip past the Hornets at this pick. Castle might want to be a point guard, but he plays much more like a connective wing, and that makes him a good fit between LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller in Charlotte. Castle defends his ass off, fights for loose balls and rebounds, and has the strength to finish through contact at the rim. His jump shot is terrible at the moment, but his 75.5 percent mark from the free throw line could inspire some long-term hope in his shooting.
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7. Portland Trail Blazers – Cody Williams, F, Colorado
The Blazers have been connected to several players at this point in the pre-draft process: Clingan (who they might have to trade up for), Tennessee wing Dalton Knecht, and French forward Tijane Salaun, all of whom have officially had workouts with the team. Cody Williams has also reportedly had a less publicized meeting in Portland, and would seem to fit well as a long-term piece on the wing around Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot Henderson. The real question is how much pressure Portland’s front office is under to try to inch this thing closer to competitiveness. The Blazers still feel far away from making a real push in the West, and Williams is far away from hitting his potential ceiling as an NBA player. This pick makes sense unless someone powerful in the organization is starting to lose patience.
8. San Antonio Spurs – Nikola Topic, G, Red Stars (Serbia)
The Spurs need to fill their hole at point guard somehow this summer, whether they’re trying to trade for a veteran like Darius Garland or nabbing a playmaker in this draft. Topic likely would have been gone by this point in the draft had he not torn his ACL in May. While the length of Topic’s recovery remains a point of speculation, he makes sense for San Antonio even if he has to miss his whole rookie year. Topic is a super fast lead guard who thrives getting downhill and finishing with craft below the rim. Isaiah Collier and Rob Dillingham would also make sense here. The reality is that San Antonio — with Victor Wembanyama in tow — feels like by far the best landing spot for any young guard prospect.
9. Memphis Grizzlies – Ron Holland, F, G League Ignite
The Grizzlies struck gold in the draft last year by taking a former highly-touted recruit who slipped in the draft after struggling in his pre-draft season. If it worked with GG Jackson, it can work with Ron Holland too. Holland had a brutal year shooting the ball for a G League Ignite team that was so bad they shut down the program. Still, his defensive motor, transition scoring, and wicked athleticism will quickly remind you why he was once considered the front-runner to go No. 1 overall in this class. The Grizzlies reportedly want to contend in the West this season and Holland is a little too young and too raw to do that, but with Ja Morant only turning 25 years this summer, Memphis still has a wide window. Holland could fit their long-term vision well as a player who embodies the franchise’s old grit-n-grind spirit.
10. Utah Jazz – Tidjane Salaun, F, Cholet (France)
Salaun has been the most active lottery prospect in team workouts thus far, already spending time with the Pistons at No. 5, the Blazers at No. 7, the Spurs at No. 8, the Jazz at this pick, and the Thunder at No. 12. Utah doesn’t seem like they’re in any rush to be competitive, and likely has its eye on Cooper Flagg at the top of the 2025 draft. Salaun is a good long-term prospect for his size, motor, and shooting potential at forward, and his development fits the timeline of the organization.
11. Chicago Bulls – Devin Carter, G, Providence
The Bulls are reportedly eying trading up in this draft, but parting with future draft capitol to do it would be a huge mistake. Chicago is in a great spot at No. 11 to just take the best player who falls, and Carter, Rob Dillingham, and Isaiah Collier could each fit that description in this mock. Carter was the first lottery prospect to work out for the Bulls, and there has been speculation that they gave him a promise. Carter would be a good long-term replacement for Alex Caruso as a tenacious on-ball defender who made real strides as a shooter and driver last season as a junior at Providence. Carter and the Bulls have been connected so often in the pre-draft process that this feels like the safest player to peg here.
12. Oklahoma City Thunder – Rob Dillingham, G, Kentucky
Dillingham should go much higher than this based on talent, but it’s understandable that teams would be weary of a guard this small, this weak, and this bad defensively. The Thunder are smart enough to spot a great value when they see one. Dillingham might be the best ball handler in the class, and he has a case as the best shooter available, too. He’s deadly at ripping deep shots whether he’s on or off the ball, and his passing vision is underrated, too. OKC has so much length and defense already in place that it can accommodate a small guard bursting with offensive talent like Dillingham.
13. Sacramento Kings – Dalton Knecht, F, Tennessee
This feels like the low-end for Knecht’s range in the draft, with the Blazers lurking as his floor with the next pick. Knecht fits Sacramento’s existing style well: he’s a high-volume, highly-accurate three-point shooter for a team that finished No. 3 in three-point rate last season. Sacramento could probably use a little more size at this pick, but Knecht feels like a plug-and-play option for a team that wants to stay competitive in the West.
14. Portland Blazers – Tristan da Silva, F, Colordo
A four-year player at Colorado, da Silva is a tall shooter who lacks premium athletic ability. Portland is the only team he’s worked out for at this point, according to HoopsHype, and it’s easy to see his potential value there as a floor spacer for Scoot Henderson and Co. Indiana center Kel’el Ware and Miami forward Kyshawn George feel like other options here.
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15. Miami Heat – Isaiah Collier, G, USC
Collier was supposed to compete for the No. 1 pick entering this cycle before an up-and-down year filled with losing for USC. Collier has only worked out for the Heat, according to HoopsHype, and Miami should jump at the chance to take a player with the potential to be a long-term offensive engine if everything goes right. Collier is a fast and strong lead guard who can bully his way into the paint and has impressive passing vision. He needs to work on his jumper, but the Heat do player development better than anyone.
16. Philadelphia 76ers – Bub Carrington, G, Pitt
Carrington has reportedly been earning some lottery buzz lately — he worked out for the Kings at No. 13 — and has the mix of size and shooting teams look for in a guard. At 6’5 with a 6’8 wingspan, Carrington is at his best shooting pull-up jumpers off the dribble from deep and from mid-range. Philly feels likely to shop this pick in a trade for a win-now veteran, but this is starting to feel like Carrington’s range regardless of who’s choosing here.
17. Los Angeles Lakers – Tyler Smith, F, G League Ignite
Smith has been extremely active on the team workout scene over the last month, stopping by the Heat, Lakers, Pelicans, Knicks, Thunder, Trail Blazers, Raptors, and Wizards. In a weaker draft, his combination of size (6’9 barefoot) and shooting feels like a worthy bet. Even as he readies to turn 40 years old this season, surrounding LeBron James with shooters is always a good move. Smith was one of the few G League Ignite players who wasn’t a disappointment this season, and he has a pathway to NBA success if he can improve his defensive awareness.
18. Orlando Magic – Jared McCain, G, Duke
The Magic typically prefer players with long wingspans, and McCain does not fit that mold after measuring at 6’2 barefoot with a 6’3.5 wingspan at the combine. Still, McCain feels like exactly what this team needs as a sharpshooter in the backcourt who can space the floor for Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. McCain isn’t a natural on-ball creator, but his jump shot would really help out Orlando’s offense.
19. Toronto Raptors – Zach Edey, C, Purdue
Edey has made the rounds in the pre-draft process, working out for the Lakers, Heat, Bucks, Pelicans, Raptors, Blazers, and Jazz. Toronto makes sense as a landing spot for the 7’4 giant, and not just because he’s Canadian. Edey offers a sliver of upside other players in this range don’t due to his unparalleled size and production at the college level. He’s incredibly skilled as an interior scorer and offensive rebounder, and it’s undeniably impressive that he often played all 40 minutes for the Purdue at nearly 300 pounds. He’s a worthwhile flier in this range for a team that needs a long-term ceiling raiser.
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20. Cleveland Cavaliers – Kel’el Ware, C, Indiana
Cleveland has so much up in the air entering the offseason. Will Donovan Mitchell sign a long-term extension? Will Darius Garland be shopped if that happens? Will the trade rumors that have floated around Jarrett Allen in recent years come to fruition? Ware makes sense as the best player available if the Cavs do decide to swap out Allen for a wing. He has similar athletic tools to Allen, but has the potential to be a real floor spacer with his jump shot. This would be an extremely skilled young front court if Cleveland can keep Ware’s motor up.
21. New Orleans Pelicans – Jaylon Tyson, G, Cal
Tyson has been everywhere in the pre-draft process with reported workouts in Cleveland, Milwaukee, New Orleans, Orlando, Phoenix, Portland, and Toronto. At 6’5.5 barefoot with a 6’8 wingspan, Tyson offers advanced ball handling and footwork, a solid shooting stroke, and some passing flashes. He can fit into almost any team context as a wing who can provide off-ball scoring and some secondary creation.
22. Phoenix Suns – Yves Missi, C, Baylor
There’s been a lot of buzz for Tyler Kolek in this spot, but if a talent like Missi falls, the Suns should feel comfortable taking a swing. Phoenix could really use some rim protection and athleticism in the front court, and Missi has that in spades. He may not fit Kevin Durant’s win-now timeline, but Missi has great long-term tools as an above-the-rim play finisher and shot blocker.
23. Milwaukee Bucks – Kyshawn George, F, Miami
George measured at 6’7 barefoot with a 6’10.5 wingspan, and made 40.8 percent of his threes as a freshman for Miami. He moves well enough to have some defensive potential, and he knows who he is as a player: 68.4 percent of George’s field goal attempts were from three-point range. Milwaukee would probably prefer a more “NBA ready” player, but this feels like the right range for George and a decent landing spot.
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24. New York Knicks – Kyle Filipowski, C, Duke
Filipowski is probably too talented to fall this far in the draft, but it would be a boon for the Knicks if it happened. While the Duke sophomore is relatively slow and gravity-bound, he’s one of the most skilled bigs in this class. Filipowski could replicate a lot of Isaiah Hartenstein’s playmaking, and he has more shooting potential. There are some defensive concerns with Filipowski, but he can be a weapon offensively if he shoots it.
25. New York Knicks – Ja’Kobe Walter, G, Baylor
Walter was getting lottery hype for most of the year, but it’s easy to see a scenario where he starts to fall on draft day. He’s a wing in the ‘three-and-D’ mold, but both his shot and his defense were inconsistent as a freshman at Baylor. If he slips this far, he’d be a great value as an off-ball floor spacer for the Knicks.
26. Washington Wizards – Johnny Furphy, F, Kansas
Furphy makes sense for a Washington team trying to develop young players next season without any real pressure to win. A 6’8 freshman wing from Kansas (via Australia), Furphy scored efficiently (61 percent true shooting) and shot the ball well from three (35.3 percent) even if his shot dipped a bit late in the season.
27. Minnesota Timberwolves – Baylor Scheierman, F, Creighton
Scheierman’s range appears to start in the late first round after he worked out for the Wolves, Jazz, and Celtics, all teams picking between 27-30. The Wolves don’t really have a designated shooter off the bench, and the Creighton super senior makes sense in that role. He hit 39 percent of his threes for his college career, and showed he could get them up with volume last season by attempting 8.3 triples per game. He’s not the longest or strongest wing, but he’s just tall enough (6’6.25 barefoot) to have a chance to stick.
28. Denver Nuggets – Pacome Dadiet, F, Ulm (France)
It would make sense if the Nuggets shopped this pick for a win-now veteran, but we can’t have Dadiet falling much farther. The French wing measured at 6’7.5 without shoes with a 6’9 wingspan, and showed solid athletic traits, a high motor, and decent three-point touch while playing for Ulm in the German league. He’s very young, but he feels like one of the best upside fliers in the draft once we get to the 20s.
29. Utah Jazz – Ryan Dunn, F, Virginia
Dunn is a defensive monster as a rangey forward with elite athleticism who can defend out on the perimeter or provide secondary rim protection. The issue is that he can’t just can’t shoot at all right now — he went 7-of-35 from three as a sophomore at Virginia. Dunn has worked out for Utah and makes sense as a long-term development bet if they can fix his jump shot.
30. Boston Celtics – DaRon Holmes II, C/F, Dayton
Holmes has reportedly shut down his pre-draft workouts amid rumors that he’s received a promise somewhere in the first round. If he slips this far, it would be highway robbery for the Celtics. The junior big man was one of the best players in college basketball for Dayton this past season, combining improved shooting and playmaking ability with the athletic big man skills he’s always showcased. Holmes may be a tad undersized as a center, but his perimeter offensive development gives him a chance to play next to other bigs down the road.
