Let’s rank the candidates for the 2025 NBA MVP award.
What makes an NBA MVP? For some, the award should go to the best player alive regardless of team performance. To others, MVP has a stronger narrative pull for players who elevated their team to new heights (see: Derrick Rose in 2011) or who broke through unthinkable glass ceilings (see: Russell Westbrook in 2017) statistically. Sometimes, NBA media just gets sick of giving award to same guy year-after-year, and dolls it out in something of a lifetime achievement award (see: Karl Malone in 1997).
The only unanimous NBA MVP in league history belongs to Stephen Curry in 2016. That streak will extend another year, because this season’s MVP race feels as contested as ever.
Three candidates are pulling themselves away from the field, but to this point, two of them play for only a handful of games over .500. After them, there’s a deep field of contenders that sadly will no longer include Luka Doncic, who will fall short of the 65-game minimum after suffering a calf strain that will sideline him for at least a month.
As the NBA turns the calendar to 2025, here’s our ranking of what the extended MVP ballot would look like right now.
9. Kevin Durant, F, Phoenix Suns: With Kevin Durant in the lineup, the Suns are 14-7 this season, winning at a pace that would tie them for the No. 2 seed in the West at the time of writing. Without Durant, the Suns are just 1-9. Phoenix actually has a negative net-rating whether KD is on or off the floor this year, but the 36-year-old is still putting up awesome numbers. Durant is averaging 27.7 points per game while being less than six free throw percentage points from a 50/40/90 season. If the season ended today, Phoenix wouldn’t even make the play-in tournament in the West. If the Suns are going to turn their season around, Durant has to be the catalyst.
8. Stephen Curry, G, Golden State Warriors: The Warriors are fading into mediocrity since their hot start, but Curry is keeping them afloat. The 36-year-old legend is still taking a ton of three-pointers — more than 16 per 100 possessions, which ranks No. 2 in the NBA — while knocking them down at a 40.6 percent clip. Curry still grades out as a top-5 offensive player in the league by EPM even as his rim finishing and foul generating have taken a hit with age. It feels like Curry still carries one of the heaviest creation burdens in the league, as the Warriors really can’t score without him. When Steph is on the floor, Golden State’s offense scores 120.9 points per 100 possessions, which would rank No. 2 in the league. When he’s not playing, Golden State scores 102.99 points per 100 — which easily ranks dead last in the NBA. Steph is still capable of magic no other player can make, and he remains a joy to watch.
7. Victor Wembanyama, C, San Antonio Spurs: Wembanyama is probably already the best defensive player in the world before he’s old enough to step into a bar (he turns 21 years old on Jan. 4). He leads the league in blocks by a massive margin, with 40 more than second place Walker Kessler at the time of writing. That’s the same gap between No. 2 and No. 37 among the league leaders in total blocks. He’s also flirting with the top-10 in scoring at 25.5 points per game while chipping in 10 rebounds. The Spurs have a +4.82 net-rating with Wemby on the floor this season and a -9.36 net-rating when he’s off, per PBP Stats. If you like all-in-one impact stats, Wembanyama is top-5 in the league in EPM, BPM, and VORP. He’s probably going to have to settle for merely being All-NBA this season, but a run of serious MVP contention should begin as early as next year.
6. Donovan Mitchell, G, Cleveland Cavaliers: Mitchell gets the nod as the best player on the best team in the NBA to this point. The Cavs are 28-4 at time of writing with Mitchell’s explosive mix of three-point shooting and paint attacking leading the way. Mitchell is currently making a career-high 41.2 percent of his threes on 9.2 attempts per game. He’s become a killer in the short mid-range area, making 58.6 percent of his attempts from between 3-10 feet, per basketball-reference. He’s also taking better care of the ball, with a 9.5 percent turnover rate marking a career-low. Cleveland has been less reliant on Mitchell than usual this year as Evan Mobley and Darius Garland pick up bigger chunks of the offense, but there’s no question who will be this team’s catalyst come playoff time.
5. Jalen Brunson, G, New York Knicks: Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns have each been phenomenal for the Knicks this season, but I only wanted to pick one for this list. Brunson gets the nod as the straw that stirs the drink for New York’s No. 2 overall offense. The point guard grades out as a top-5 offensive player in EPM with devastating shot-making from all over the floor. Brunson’s mid-range pull-up game (48 percent on high volume, per Cleaning the Glass) is so difficult to defend when you also have to worry about his playmaking (33.8 percent assist rate, which ranks top-15 in the NBA). He’ll never be a good defender, but Brunson’s ability to stay durable and play big minutes — he hasn’t a missed yet and is No. 7 in the league in total minutes — has given the Knicks a real chance to compete in the East this year.
4. Jayson Tatum, F, Boston Celtics: Tatum is a walking First-Team All-NBA candidate at this point, and he’s working on his fourth straight nod for that honor. The league’s premier two-way wing proved he could do the dirty work on the Celtics’ way to the championship last season, consistently defending opposing centers and driving to the basket with determination during the playoff run. Tatum kept the Celtics cruising to start the season as the team was missing Kristaps Porizginis, and he’s continued his high level of play the whole season. We know what we’re getting from Tatum at this point: elite rim finishing, versatile defense, plus rebounding for his position, all while scoring an above-average clip as he carries a 30 percent usage rate. He’s just so damn consistent year over year on the brink of his 27th birthday. Tatum may not be the front-runner to win MVP this season, but I wouldn’t hesitate to call him the favorite to win NBA Finals MVP in 2025. That’s the more meaningful award anyway.
The 3 players who can actually win 2025 NBA MVP
One of these three players is going to win 2025 NBA MVP. To this point in the season, all of them are deserving candidates, but only one man can win it.
Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, F, Milwaukee Bucks
Antetokounmpo’s greatness is so consistent that it’s easy to take him for granted. He’s been named First-Team All-NBA in six straight years, and was Second-Team All-NBA in the two seasons before that. He already has two MVP awards to go along with one NBA Finals MVP, one Defensive Player of the Year award, and a Most Improved Player award early in his career. Giannis had a strong case as a top-20 player of all-time even before this season started, and yet it’s possible he’s putting together the best season of his career at age-30.
Milwaukee’s season seemed to be going off the rails after a 2-8 start, but Antetokounmpo wouldn’t let it happen. Giannis is leading the league in scoring at 32.7 points per game, but he’s doing so much more than that. He’s a monster on the glass (top-5 with 11.6 rebounds per game), a skilled playmaker (six assists per game), and has gotten back to his roots as an intimidating shot blocker lately. He was heroic in dragging the Bucks to the NBA Cup title, with his ridiculous recovery block on Clint Capela to clinch the semifinals win serving as the ultimate reminder of his talent. The fact that he’s stopped taking threes this season and instead grew into a dependable mid-range shooter has made him even more unguardable.
Giannis does have a few factors working against him. The first is that the Bucks still just aren’t very good: Milwaukee is only on pace to win 43 or 44 games this year in the lowly Eastern Conference. Even Westbrook’s 2017 MVP run where the Thunder finished with the No. 6 seed saw OKC win 47 games in a loaded West. It is stunning that the Bucks actually have a better net-rating with Giannis off the floor this year, per PBP Stats, something that is unlikely to last, but still. Antetokounmpo has also missed more games than any top-three NBA MVP candidate this season. He also has the lowest EPM, BPM, and VORP of the group. While he’s easily the best defender among the serious MVP contenders, he’s no longer the scariest defender in the world (though he remains close). If the Bucks can close the season on a strong kick, Giannis’ third MVP award could become reality this season. For now, I think he falls just a tad short.
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2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, G, Oklahoma City Thunder
It would be convenient to reduce Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP candidacy to simply being the best player on what might be the best team in the NBA. The Oklahoma City Thunder are somehow on pace to win around 69 games this season despite a long injury to Chet Holmgren while he was playing at an All-NBA level. If Holmgren stayed healthy, OKC could have very possibly broken the all-time wins record. Even without him, the Thunder haven’t skipped a beat thanks to Gilgeous-Alexander’s unmatched creation ability and absurd shot-making.
A more accurate reading of SGA’s MVP candidacy touts him as the best guard alive, and a top-3 player in the league regardless of position. That might be putting it conservatively. Gilgeous-Alexander is leading the league in EPM by a big margin while being second in both BPM and VORP. For all of the Thunder’s talent, this goes from being an elite team to a mediocre team with Gilgeous-Alexander out of the game. With SGA on the floor, the Thunder are out-scoring teams by 16 points per 100 possessions, per PBP Stats. Without him, OKC’s net-rating is under 0.5 points per 100 better than their opponents. He’s second in the league behind Giannis by averaging 31 points per game, he’s third in steals per game, and top-20 in both assists and blocks on a per-game basis.
It feels like SGA can create a great shot for himself in any situation. He is so tough to stop in part because he specializes in hitting the shots defenses want to give up. He’s having one of the greatest mid-range scoring seasons ever while also generating the third-most free throw attempts in the league and making 88 percent of his freebies. It’s hard to think of an argument for why Gilgeous-Alexander shouldn’t win MVP, other than it feels like one player has been slightly better than him.
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1. Nikola Jokic, C, Denver Nuggets
It felt like it was going to be impossible for Nikola Jokic to win his fourth MVP this season. Beyond the typical voter fatigue, Jokic also had to contend with a second round playoff exit last season and more talent-drain for his supporting cast. Somehow, Jokic has taken his level of play higher than ever, elevating a flawed roster to a secured playoff position in a loaded conference thus far.
The workload the Nuggets put on Jokic should be unsustainable for anyone, and that may eventually be the case for him, too. His defense has always had holes to expose, and has slipped even further this year. He’s also already missed as many games (3) this season as he did all of last year. Without him on the court, the Nuggets are getting out-scored by -12.23 points per 100 possessions, which would be the second worst mark in the NBA, behind the 5-25 Washington Wizards. With him, Denver out-scores teams by 10.62 per 100, which would be third-best in the NBA this season. Jokic’s on/off splits have been a storyline for years in part because no one alive can replicate his usage, playmaking, scoring, and rebounding. This year, it feels like Denver’s supporting cast is so poor that Jokic is single-handedly holding them together from full-blown collapse.
Jokic’s numbers shouldn’t be possible. He’s tied for second in the league in scoring with a career-best 31 points per game, while also being top-3 in both assists and rebounds per game and top-5 in steals per game. He’s never wanted to be a volume scorer, but he’s had no choice this year with Jamal Murray in a diminished state and the young players on the roster still not up to snuff despite some improvement. Jokic is also somehow leading the NBA in three-point percentage at 48.9 percent on 4.7 attempts per game. He’s tops in BPM and VORP this year, and is only behind Gilgeous-Alexander in EPM due to that metric highly valuing the Thunder guard’s defense.
Right now, the Nuggets are on pace to win about 47 games, which would match what the Thunder won during Westbrook’s MVP run in 2017. That feels like just about the minimum amount of wins to secure MVP, and getting there will be extremely difficult in the loaded Western Conference. It will require something close to basketball perfection to keep the Nuggets out of the play-in tournament and to keep this award away from Gilgeous-Alexander. At least for now, Jokic is doing it. Only Kareem, Michael, LeBron, Wilt, and Russell have won four or more MVPs. Many won’t want to admit it, but Jokic deserves to be in the conversation with those legends.
If the Nuggets fall back even a little bit, Gilgeous-Alexander is probably going to win this award. That might be the most likely scenario by the end of the season. For now, Jokic is the front-runner by defending his status as the best player in the world, and boosting the Nuggets just far enough up the standings to earn the award. NBA MVP is too close to call right now, but Jokic has the slightest of edges.
