NFL Week 12 upset picks include Bears over Vikings and a shocker in Carolina

Here are our upside picks for Week 12.

Every week is tough when trying to identify potential NFL upsets.

Week 12 of the 2024 NFL season might be tougher than most.

Thanks to some games between evenly-matched teams, and a few potential blowouts on paper, our writers here at SB Nation struggled to pick out some potential upsets for this week.

But alas, we forge on. Here are four potential upsets for Week 12 of the 2024 NFL season.

New York Giants (+6) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Mark Schofield

That sound you hear?

That is the sound of Tommy “Cutlets” DeVito returning to the starting lineup for the New York Giants.

A year ago DeVito stepped into the starting lineup for an injured Daniel Jones and not only sparked the Giants offense, but he captured the attention of the entire league. Now, with Jones struggling — and a $23 million injury guarantee perhaps forcing the team’s hand — the Giants are turning to DeVito once more.

Can he offer improved play from the pocket from New York? Perhaps. Can he deliver another spark for the Giants this season? Absolutely. Will it be sustainable? Probably not.

But it might be enough for one week at least.

Chicago Bears (+3.5) over Minnesota Vikings — JP Acosta

After the firing of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, Bears’ rookie QB Caleb Williams and the Chicago offense looked a lot more fluid and played with much more energy than previous weeks. Despite having a massive challenge against a Vikings’ defense that prides itself on making life hell for rookie QBs, I think Williams is leaning more into the out of structure plays that could lead to some explosives against this team.

On the other side, I think this Bears’ defense can force Sam Darnold into some mistakes. Since their week seven loss to Detroit, Minnesota is 20th in offensive EPA per play and 14th in Success Rate, down from a blistering start to the season. With a ferocious front four I think the Bears can fluster Darnold a little bit.

The offense still might be a work in progress, but I believe in Williams’ ability to have some positive volatility, bringing an upset to the Windy City.

Carolina Panthers (+11) over Kansas City Chiefs — James Dator

Trust me, I know this sounds like the dumbest pick in the world — but +11 points at home is a frankly stupid spread. Kansas City has only won one game by 11 or more points, and that came in Week 5 against the New Orleans Saints.

This season has been marred by the Chiefs playing down to their opponent’s level, and on the other side of the ball the Panthers have been playing much better football of late. Add in the fact that Adam Thielen is back from injury, adding to a talented young receiving corps — and that second round rookie running back Jonathan Brooks is making his debut for the Panthers, and there’s a real chance here that the game could be closer than anyone expects.

I’m not saying Carolina wins this one, but I do think it could be very close. This has all the features of a trap game for the Chiefs, who are undoubtably looking ahead to Week 14 when they face the Chargers.