No WNBA team has ever come back from an 0-2 deficit. Here’s what the Aces need to do to avoid it.

Photo by Evan Yu/NBAE via Getty Images

A’ja Wilson and the Aces will look to avoid falling into an 0-2 hole for the Liberty when the two teams meet on Tuesday night.

BROOKLYN — The New York Liberty host the Las Vegas Aces for Game 2 of the WNBA semi-finals on Tuesday night, in a rematch of last year’s finals. It’s one of the two remaining series in this year’s playoffs, and it’s a pivotal game that will determine whether Las Vegas can tie things up before heading home.

Last time out, in Game 1, the Liberty defeated the Aces 87-77, powered by 34 points from Breanna Stewart and 21 points from Sabrina Ionescu. The Liberty led by double-figures for much of the way and were able to at least somewhat contain A’ja Wilson, who still finished with 21 points but scored nearly 6 points less than her regular season average.

In turn, New York now holds a 1-0 lead in the series, and has the opportunity to extend that further at 7:30pm ET on Tuesday. No WNBA team has ever come back from a 2-0 deficit in a best-of-five series — so this game is as crucial as it gets for Las Vegas.

The Aces are the two-time defending champions for a reason, and they will likely have a response to a lackluster Game 1 outing. There’s a lot to improve on and it’s possible that the Liberty simply won’t play as well as they did in the series opener.

But, if Las Vegas wants to even this series and , here are five things that will (most likely) need to happen.

The Aces will have to shoot better from three-point range

Given the sheer level of talent and weapons on the Liberty side, the margin of error for the Aces is razor-thin. In Game 1, Las Vegas shot just 7-25 from three-point range, good for 28% from behind the arc. Kelsey Plum had more than half of those makes — she hit 4-8 from downtown — but Las Vegas is going to need to see better shooting across the board to stay in it. New York shot 8-19 from three in Game 1 (42.1%).

Tiffany Hayes will be key in making up the deficit — Hayes shot 40.2% from downtown this season, but went 0/2 in Game 1. Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young didn’t have their best shooting seasons (33.8% and 33.7%, respectively), but both have the ability to get hot despite combining for 2-10 from in Game 1. On Sunday, the easy ones weren’t falling, and that’s going to have to change for Las Vegas to have a chance.

A’ja Wilson and the rest of the cast need to contain Breanna Stewart (somehow)

Breanna Stewart had her way in Game 1, putting up 34 points on 12-19 shooting. The Aces are going to have to make life more difficult for the two-time MVP in Game 2, and the difficult thing is that A’ja Wilson, their best defender, has her hands full with Jonquel Jones. Jones posted 13 points and 12 rebounds in Game 1, and the former MVP can certainly do damage if slowing her down isn’t prioritized. But, Stewart got way too many easy looks in the opener — points in transition, wide-open threes, baskets on mismatches. Las Vegas is going to have to take those away.

Las Vegas will need to be much better on the glass — or transition defense — or both

Aces head coach Becky Hammon acknowledged after Game 1 that her team lost both the battle on the glass and was outran in transition. The Liberty out-rebounded the Aces 31-22, and scored 16 fast break points to the Aces’ 6.

One — or both — of those things is going to have to change in Game 2. A’ja Wilson grabbed more rebounds than any player in the WNBA this season, but had a season-low 6 boards in Game 1. Not one Aces player racked up more than 6 rebounds.

Addressing that could involve lineup changes — we didn’t see Megan Gustafson or Queen Egbo in Game 1, and both could provide some much-needed size against the Liberty’s length. It could also just be a point of emphasis across the board — Jackie Young and Kelsey Plum each finished with just 2 rebounds, and Chelsea Gray with 3. Expect the Aces to come out more aggressive on the glass from the jump.

Vintage Chelsea Gray will (probably) need to make her return

In 26 minutes of action, Aces point guard Chelsea Gray finished with 4 points and 1 assist. That’s not going to cut it. Gray needs to be more aggressive and more involved, and we’ve already seen how she can impact games when she’s at her best (see: 2022 Finals MVP).

Kelsey Plum said after the first round series against the Seattle Storm that Chelsea Gray was back to her regular self — and that’ll need to be the case against New York here in Game 2.

“A lot of people put up numbers — and that’s no fault of them. But Chelsea impacts winning,” Plum said. “Ask any player in the league, any high-level player, I guarantee they want Chelsea Gray on their team with five minutes left.”

Gray has shown flashes of brilliance this postseason — she averaged 14 points and 8 assists in the first round — and she will likely need to assert herself in this one. Las Vegas has pulled together plenty of wins this year with Chelsea Gray serving as more of a role player, but the reality is that this team’s ceiling is different when Gray is living up to her ‘Point Gawd’ nickname.

A’ja Wilson should assert herself as the best player on the floor

Wilson was the unanimous MVP for a reason this past year, averaging 26.9 points, 11.9 rebounds, 2.6 blocks, and 1.8 steals. She had multiple 40+ point outings, and posted career-highs in nearly every category. And, while she’s been solid in these playoffs, she still has another gear she can go to. She’s averaged 22 points and 9 rebounds in three postseason games so far — and shot a very respectable 50% from the field — but we haven’t seen a big-time performance like Stewie’s in Game 1, or Napheesa Collier’s 38- and 42-point outings against the Mercury. Wilson is obviously capable, and tonight would be a great start.

This Liberty team has been the best all season long for a reason, so it’ll be difficult for any team to defeat them in a five-game series. Becky Hammon said Game 2 was “do-or-die”, and while it’s not quite an elimination game, the fact that no team has ever come back from an 0-2 hole is reason enough to treat it as such. It’s going to take a lot for Las Vegas to pull off a win — but this Aces team has shown time and again it shouldn’t be counted out.