Graphic by Anton Tabuena, original photo via Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images
Trade rumors are expected to grow louder after the Nuggets, Cavaliers, Thunder and Knicks were all eliminated in the second round of the NBA Playoffs.
The 2024 NBA Playoffs has already been very eventful to say the least. Several superstar-heavy teams were sent packing way earlier than they hoped, and now the defending champions and two other top-seeded contenders will join them in Cancun after just the second round.
This off-season was already expected to be a busy one, but after these tough losses, rumblings of big trades are only going to grow louder. So where do the Nuggets, Thunder, Cavaliers, and Knicks go from here?
Do they start a complete rebuild? Reload and try again? Somewhere in the middle? That’s what we’ll try to figure out here, as we run down the next steps for every NBA team that faced a second round exit.
WEST
Denver Nuggets
57-25 season, No. 2 seed in the West, Lost 4-3 to Timberwolves
Under contract: Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Zeke Nnaji, Christian Braun, Julian Strawther, Peyton Watson, Jalen Pickett, Hunter Tyson
Player option: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Reggie Jackson
Team option: Vlatko Cancar
Current team salary: $191 million, according to Salary Swish
Projected salary cap space: $32 million to $71 million over the cap (already over the second apron)
Next moves: Get a backup point guard, improve the bench and try again.
Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images
Who could’ve predicted that the reigning champion Nuggets wouldn’t get past the second round? And for that to happen after a Game 7, where they were up 20 at home? Bananas!
Just a couple of months ago, it would’ve seemed inconceivable for the always-poised defending champions to lose three home games and go out like that, but here we are. I’m sure hot takes will fly, but despite the Game 7 loss, the Nuggets are still legitimate contenders and should definitely try to continue with this championship core.
The issue they’ll start to run into, though, is with the luxury tax and all the added restrictions. They were in the second apron this year and likely will be again next season. They’ll have very limited options for improvements, but with some real holes to address.
The Nuggets lost some depth compared to their championship year, and definitely can’t afford to also lose Caldwell-Pope, who they also can’t properly replace if he opts out of his $15 million deal. Murray also looked banged up even from the first round – years of long playoff runs will do that – and they’ll definitely need a better backup point guard than Reggie Jackson.
Youngsters like Christian Braun and Peyton Watson soaked up extended minutes during the season, with the Nuggets trying to both rest their core stars and nurture depth for the future. It’s a smart strategy, as fellow second-apron teams like the Suns, Bucks and Clippers quickly got old, but the Nuggets will still need better bench help than they had this postseason.
They’ll have the 28th and 56th picks in the draft, Zeke Nnaji’s $8.8 million contract to match salaries in a trade, plus minimum contracts to sign free agents to. Denver will have to get creative to improve, with the most glaring needs at backup center and point guard positions held by DeAndre Jordan and Jackson, respectively.
They can try to lure veterans to chase a ring, or hope they take a discount to play with the three-time MVP in Jokic, a willing passer who regularly makes players look better. The field of minimum-player free agents can include someone like Andre Drummond or Patrick Beverley, but it’ll be slim pickings.
It was a disappointing exit and it will be a challenge to add to this roster, but outside of Nuggets ownership’s willingness to deal with the tax, there’s really no need to panic just yet.
The sky isn’t falling. The MVP in Jokic is still just 29, and everyone on their core team outside of Caldwell-Pope (31) is younger.
Reload or Rebuild?
No need to overreact. Just reload with a few minor additions.
Oklahoma City Thunder
57-25 season, No. 1 seed in the West, Lost 4-2 to Mavs
Under contract: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Josh Giddey, Kenrich Williams, Cason Wallace, Ousmane Dieng, Jalen Williams, Adam Flagler
Team option: Lindy Waters III, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins
Non-guaranteed: Jaylin Williams
Current team salary: $102 million, according to Salary Swish
Projected salary cap space: From $35 million to $37 million under the cap
Next moves: Use cap space to improve on an already promising roster
Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images
Losing an elimination game they led by 17 at one point will sting quite a bit. There are still a lot of positives for the Thunder though, after a breakthrough year that saw them get the top spot in the West. Not only did this very young team get invaluable playoff experience, they also have many ways to improve on what is already a top-notch team.
OKC already has an MVP-caliber leader in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and promising future stars like Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams that had them looking like a real contender at points this year. With young players still on rookie deals and Gordon Hayward’s massive contract coming off their books, the Thunder will have a lot of cap space to pick up key pieces that could get them over the hump.
The Thunder will get expensive in the coming years when extensions kick in, but now is the perfect time to strike.
Fit and timelines are debatable, but veteran free agents like Klay Thompson, DeMar DeRozan and Tobias Harris might be available for less-than-max deals. The Thunder can also use their cap space and massive trove of picks to outbid anyone and get even better-fitting players in a trade.
The Thunder also have a need for rebounding bigs, with names like Jarrett Allen and Julius Randle potentially available on the trade block (more on that later), but they will likely want someone that can still fit in their 5-out offense. In return, they can build a package around picks and the talented but questionable fit in Josh Giddey, who lost his minutes and starter spot in the Mavs series.
After their offseason moves fill up the cap, they can probably even bring back Hayward on a smaller deal if they choose to do so. They’ll also have a couple of exceptions to pick up more veterans and help these youngsters make that jump.
It seems pretty crazy to think that a 57-win team still has a lot of room to grow and improve, but that’s exactly where the Thunder is now. The future is bright, and Sam Presti still has a lot of assets and flexibility to try and take them from a promising playoff team to elite championship contender for years to come.
Reload or Rebuild?
Reload around SGA and this young core, but hopefully with another key piece and veteran help.
EAST
Cleveland Cavaliers
48-34 season, No. 4 seed in the East, Lost 4-1 to Celtics
Under contract: Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen, Caris LeVert, Max Strus, Evan Mobley, Georges Niang, Dean Wade, Ty Jerome
Non-guaranteed: Sam Merrill, Craig Porter Jr.
Current team salary: $156 million, according to Salary Swish
Projected salary cap space: $19 million to $48 million over the cap
Next moves: Figure out Donovan Mitchell’s next steps, then sort out the roster log jam.
Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images
This entire offseason will be centered on what Donovan Mitchell wants to do next.
The Cavs were hoping for a deep playoff run to appease their star, but after barely scraping past the Magic in seven games, they were booted in the second round. You could argue there’s no shame in losing to the top-seeded Celtics, especially with all those injuries, but will Mitchell see it that way? Does it even matter?
There are early reports that the Cavs are considering letting go of fifth-year head coach JB Bickerstaff, but that kind of feels like a way to appease Mitchell more than anything else.
The Cavs will need to have a serious talk with the five-time All-Star, and then figure out where to go from there. He’s still under contract until at least next season, so while it seems like there’s technically no need to rush, he’s already involved in a lot of trade speculation for a reason.
Mitchell is due for a max extension, which the Cavs will offer, but should he decline, he can opt-out in 2025. And with the team previously giving up three first round picks, two pick swaps, Collin Sexton, and a player who became an all-star in Lauri Markkanen, they will not want to risk losing Mitchell for nothing.
Teams like the Lakers and Nets reportedly have trade offers ready, and the Rockets may express interest as well. Mitchell will also have some control, as he can threaten being a one-year rental to teams he doesn’t want to move to.
Would the Lakers’ three first round picks and young players like Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura and Jalen Hood-Schifino be enough? Mitchell is a New Yorker, and Brooklyn will have a whopping seven tradable first round picks and probably everyone not named Mikal Bridges available. The Pelicans (with Ingram) and Magic could also swoop in and outbid everyone with their picks and space if they wanted.
There’s so much that can happen, but expect things to go quickly once Mitchell makes that decision.
Once that domino falls, there’ll be other things to sort out, especially with their logjams of having two undersized, ball-dominant guards, plus two non-shooting bigs in their current starting five.
Should Mitchell sign his extension and stay, Darius Garland’s future reportedly becomes in doubt. Outside of their guard situation, Jarrett Allen could also be on the move, as he doesn’t have the best fit with Mobley, who is seen as their star big man for years to come.
Both players made the All-Star team during the Cavs’ 51-win campaign in 2022, and can probably fetch the Cavs a decent haul. Garland, still just 24, can interest young teams or be a consolation prize for whoever was hoping to land Mitchell, Trae Young or Dejounte Murray. There also won’t be a shortage of suitors for a former All-Star center like Allen, who averaged almost 17 points and 11 rebounds.
The Cavs are already a decent playoff team with a superstar in Mitchell and three fringe All-Stars, but expect a drastically different-looking core, and possibly even a new coach in the next several weeks.
Reload or Rebuild?
Whether Mitchell moves or not, we can expect major trades as this team rebuilds their talented but mismatched core.
New York Knicks
50-32, No. 2 seed in the East, Lost 4-3 to Pacers
Under contract: Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mitchell Robinson, Donte DiVincenzo, Miles McBride
Player option: OG Anunoby
Team option: DaQuan Jeffries, Jericho Sims
Non-guaranteed: Bojan Bogdanovic, Mamadi Diakite
Current team salary: $150 million, according to Salary Swish
Projected cap space: From $25 million under the cap to $67 million over the cap
Next moves: Get healthy, keep Anunoby… trade Randle?
Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images
The Knicks looked like a drastically improved team after trading for OG Anunoby, so their main priority this off-season should be getting a commitment and not risk losing him to any of the teams going big-game hunting.
Jalen Brunson’s gutsy playoff run and emergence as a superstar has been incredible, but going down with a broken hand in Game 7 was the final gut punch for a team absolutely decimated with injuries. While old and not entirely fair, the narrative on Thibodeau running players down will only continue after Brunson, Anunoby, Hart, Randle, Robinson and Bogdanovic all got hurt this season.
Even with a healthy team though, the Knicks still have flaws in their roster, which they should address this off-season.
Fortunately, they will have trade assets, some cap flexibility, and a lot of draft picks to follow up on that mid-season rebuild. They’ll have two first round picks in the upcoming draft, plus several more in the years to come. With Thibodeau unlikely to want that many rookies, expect them to be featured in nearly every trade rumor this summer… again.
Randle had shoulder surgery and hasn’t played since January, but the second-seeded Knicks played really well in his absence, so he will be the name brought up the most. He will have $30 million in the books for one more season and can opt out in the following year, so it does make sense to try to move him now. Randle still averaged 24 points, 9.2 rebounds and 5 assists, but it’ll be curious to see what happens to his trade value after only playing 46 games this season.
Isaiah Hartenstein also showed a lot of promise in Randle’s absence, but the seven-footer’s big year will likely cost the Knicks a lot more than his previous $9 million deal in free agency. DiVincenzo was the other breakout player, and fortunately for them, he will be on a team-friendly contract until 2028. Bogdanovic’s $19 million contract is also non-guaranteed, so the Knicks will have some interesting and movable pieces to go star hunting again.
Knicks basically had a successful “pre-agency” or mid-season rebuild that made them a 50-win team for the first time in over two decades. They really should continue that now as they move forward with Brunson, Anunoby, and possibly DiVincenzo and Hart as well.
Reload or Rebuild?
Knicks already overachieved and should continue their rebuild around Brunson and Anunoby.
