Russell Wilson is looking like so much more than a 1-year rental for Steelers

Russell Wilson’s incredible comeback story really could make him the Steelers QB of the immediate future.

It’s amazing that in his 18 years as the Pittsburgh Steelers’ head coach, Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season. That’s common knowledge.

What’s far more amazing is that from 2021-2023, Tomlin’s team managed three straight winning seasons, and two playoff berths, with negative point differentials. Pittsburgh was -51 behind their opponents in 2021 with a 9-7-1 record and a Wild Card playoff berth. They were -38 behind in 2022 with a 9-8 record, and they were -20 behind last season with a 10-7 record and another Wild Card berth.

Quarterback was the primary problem. 2021 was Ben Roethlisberger’s last season, and his right arm had basically fallen off by that point. 2022 first-round pick Kenny Pickett failed to show starting quarterback characteristics over the next two seasons, and with Matt Canada as the team’s offensive coordinator, the offense didn’t stand a chance. It was defense and Tomlin’s secret sauce that held things together just enough for the Steelers to be competitive, but more than that is expected in the Steel City.

Which is why the Steelers traded for former Bears quarterback Justin Fields and signed Denver Broncos castoff Russell Wilson before the 2024 season. They also traded Pickett to the Philadelphia Eagles. This was more about the Steelers throwing darts at a dartboard than anything else. Fields was the latest in a long line of quarterbacks who didn’t pan out in Chicago, and the Broncos were happy to release Wilson to the point where they accepted the idea that they’d be paying him more than $38 million for him to play somewhere else.

Fields was the man in the early part of the season, and he completed 106 of 160 passes for 1,106 yards, five touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 93.9. That was good, but not good enough for Tomlin. After the Steelers beat the Las Vegas Raiders 24-14 in Week 6, Tomlin announced that he was giving Wilson the starting role in time for Pittsburgh’s Week 7 matchup against the New York Jets.

It did not begin well. Early in the Jets game, Wilson displayed most of his worst rogue tendencies, bailing out of the pocket before he needed to, and making scattershot throws. Fans were chanting Fields’ name at Acrisure Stadium. But Wilson calmed down, shook the rust off, and started to look more like the guy who had been successful with the Seattle Seahawks for a good long time.

The Steelers beat the Jets 37-15, and over their next two games against the New York Giants and the Washington Commanders – both wins – Wilson went beyond backup status and actually started to look like… well, a starter.

Wilson has been far from perfect in his three starts; he’s completed just 50 of 85 passes for 737 yards, six touchdowns, one intersection, and a passer rating of 105.9. But what he has done is to give offensive coordinator Arthur Smith an ideal instrument for Smith’s concepts – play-action off a highly effective run game, and deep shots with those play-action ideas. It’s what Wilson has done at a high level for years.

Since Week 7, Wilson has four attempts of 15 or more air yards with play-action, and he’s completed all four for 152 yards.

“We’ve had our moments,” Smith said in late October of those specific passes. “We ended up hitting a lot of one-on-ones, some of the man attackers. I think, as it normally does, as you put in a new system, your run game, even with the different combinations of O-line, you start seeing guys get in sync, the track of the backs, receivers in the run game. All that stuff is starting to come together. It’s a constant work in progress, obviously. It’s a combination of a lot of things. But certainly, when the opportunities are there, we hit them, and that was a huge positive for us.”

“Well, Russell for a long time, he’s a guy that plays on time, okay,” Commanders defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr. said of Wilson before the Week 10 game. “He can get outside of the pocket. He can — he doesn’t run as much as he used to, but he still can create and get the ball where he wants to. He’s very accurate outside the numbers. He understands the run checks and if he sees a look that he doesn’t like how to get them into the right run. So he’s a smart quarterback.”

Wilson’s accuracy outside the numbers is certainly a thing, and it’s obviously benefited his receivers. We all know about the moonballs to George Pickens, who can Godzilla any cornerback in the league into submission, but the game-winner against the Commanders was a 32-yard touchdown pass to ex-Jets receiver Mike Williams, who the team got in a trade last Tuesday. If you’re on the edge and running a vertical route, it’s always go time when Russell Wilson is your quarterback.

Now, the Steelers are preparing to face the Baltimore Ravens this Sunday in what is one of the NFL’s greatest rivalries, and it has additional juice with Wilson’s ascent. He may not be able to match Lamar Jackson blow for blow, but he may not have to, given the fact that Baltimore’s defense has atypically fallen off a cliff this season. If the Steelers pull this off, they’ll be 8-2, the Ravens will be 7-4, and all of a sudden, we can talk about Mike Tomlin’s team as Super Bowl contenders for the first time in a while.

This game does set up well for Wilson’s aerial attack. Per Next Gen Stats, since Wilson became the starter, Steelers receivers have generated the fourth-highest catch rate over expected (+8.9%), fourth-most yards per target (14.5), and fifth-most receiving EPA (+24.3) on targets 10 or more air yards downfield.

During Weeks 1-6 with Fields, Steelers receivers were targeted downfield at the sixth-lowest rate in the NFL (26.1%), but since Week 7, that number has jumped up to 32.6%.

The Ravens’ defense has struggled defending passes of 10 or more air yards downfield this season, allowing the fifth-highest completion percentage over expected (4.5%), fifth-most yards per attempt (11.7), and most passing EPA (+67.1) on such attempts.

Beyond all that, can Tomlin, Smith, and the rest of the organization be comfortable in perhaps betting on Wilson beyond this season? He does still get too chaotic in the pocket at times, throwing over the middle is an issue, which limits the play designs to a point, he’s more of a “see it and throw it” quarterback as opposed to an anticipation thrower, and his movement skills aren’t what they used to be.

But when your head coach believes that you’re adjusting your skill set to where your skill set is at age 35 as opposed to age 25… well, maybe there’s something to look forward to as the team tries to find its next young franchise quarterback. Which may be Justin Fields, but will likely be somebody else.

“I think he’s still writing that story, to be quite honest with you,” Tomlin said Tuesday when asked how Wilson’s game has come to fruition in Smith’s offense. “There were a myriad of reasons why I had the posture that I had. His resume being a component of it, his experience, and I thought his experience could be an asset to our unit and our team, and that has played out. His talents, his appetite for big moments, and I think that’s played out some. But, you know, there’s a myriad of reasons, and I just think it’ll be continually revealed because of the circumstances that he and we will be in. And I’m excited about facing those things with him, and I’m excited about him, quite frankly, getting better.

“He has had an appetite for getting better. Arthur Smith and those guys have done a really good job in terms of challenging him and getting him better. And so there’s a ‘get-better’ component of this discussion as well, and one that I’m excited about discovering regarding him. Sometimes, you see guys that have been around as long as he has, or has the type of resume that he has, they’re somewhat resistant to new things or critiques and things of that nature, avenues in which men get better, and he’s not resistant to any of those things and that makes it fun as well.”

So, maybe it isn’t just Russell Wilson playing well in the Russell Wilson Offense, co-produced by Arthur Smith. Maybe Wilson is inclined to meet the Steelers halfway in ways that can give the team true offensive smackdown potential for the first time in years. And maybe that’s worth more than a one-year rental.