History, and math, are not on Liam Lawson’s side as Red Bull contemplates a driver switch
At the 2024 Miami Grand Prix Lando Norris captured his first Formula 1 victory, holding off Max Verstappen to take the checkered flag. But with Sergio Pérez finishing fourth, and both Red Bull drivers finishing on the podium in the F1 Sprint race, Red Bull banked 44 points over the weekend and left South Beach atop the Constructors’ Championship standings.
Much has changed since then.
Miami marked the last time during all of 2024 that Pérez left a race weekend with double-digit points, scoring just 49 points over the rest of the campaign. While Verstappen scored 301 points over the remainder of the 2024 season, en route to his fourth F1 Drivers’ Championship, it was not enough for Red Bull to hold on atop the standings, and they tumbled to third.
Shortly after the season, the axe fell. Pérez was out, and Liam Lawson was in.
Of course, if you are reading this you probably know that Lawson has fared little better over his first two races with Red Bull. He has yet to score a single point, and qualified in P20 for both the F1 Sprint race and the Grand Prix itself last weekend at the Chinese Grand Prix. That means that dating back to the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix last season Verstappen has scored 337 of Red Bull’s 386 points.
While those results were enough for Verstappen to capture his fourth consecutive Drivers’ Championship, they cost the team another Constructors’ title. And with Red Bull currently sitting third in the standings, 42 points behind McLaren after just two race weekends, there is already speculation that they will make a change.
Should Red Bull make a move? And if so, who gets that seat?
Let’s dive in.
Should Red Bull replace Liam Lawson?
The second seat at Red Bull is often a matter of speculation, given the team’s recent history. During Verstappen’s run at the team, dating back to 2016, he has had five different teammates: Daniel Ricciardo, Alex Albon, Pierre Gasly, Pérez, and now Lawson.
And he slid into the seat when the team parted ways with Daniil Kvyat.
The team is not known for having a tremendous amount of patience, and it is that historical lack of patience — coupled with the recent lack of results as noted above — that has led to the speculation around Lawson’s tenure. Stories following the Chinese Grand Prix indicated that a decision to replace Lawson for the Japanese Grand Prix had been all but made, and while Red Bull Team Principal Christian Horner did his best to dismiss those rumors as paddock “speculation,” he did not deny that Lawson was under pressure.
Horner also conceded that for Red Bull to be competitive in both the Drivers’ Championship (with Verstappen) and the Constructors’ race they need two drivers near the front.
“The Constructors’ Championship is a very tough ask, and we need to make significant progress with the car in order to even challenge for that. You have to have two cars scoring, that obviously hurt us badly last year,” said Horner after the Chinese Grand Prix.
“We have to have two cars in there, and even to compete for the Drivers’, you’ve got to have another car in play. It’s vitally important for the team to ensure that we have both drivers running as close to the front as we can.”
Still, a decision to sack Lawson after just two race weekends would stand out as a knee-jerk move even amidst Red Bull’s recent history. And there is some significant context that merits consideration. After all, Lawson had never raced at either Albert Park or the Shanghai International Circuit. His RB21 suffered a mechanical issue during practice at the Australian Grand Prix, and then he was tasked with racing in the rain. The format of the Chinese Grand Prix gave him just one hour of practice before qualifying for the F1 Sprint race, not much time to get up to speed in a car that is even giving Verstappen some trouble.
The upcoming race weekends — Japan, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia — are all circuits where Lawson has raced before.
Making a switch right now, with all that context, seems rather premature.
Even with Red Bull’s recent history.
If Red Bull makes a change who should get the seat?
Let’s assume for the moment that Red Bull decides two races is enough, the race for the Constructors’ title is getting late early, and they need to make a move.
Who is the best option for that seat?
The obvious answer, and the driver being linked with a switch, is Yuki Tsunoda. While Tsunoda has scored in just the F1 Sprint race this season, he has qualified inside the top ten in all three events this year, and were it not for some strategy decisions at Visa Cash App Racing Bulls in both the Australian Grand Prix and the Chinese Grand Prix — as well as a sudden failure to his front wing in Shanghai — we might be talking about Tsunoda having scored in all three races this season.
His performance this year, coupled with the next stop on the circuit being his home race, has only heightened the speculation regarding a switch.
Many, myself included, believed Tsunoda was the right option for Red Bull when the team decided to replace Pérez in the first place. But having passed over Tsunoda last winter, Red Bull could belatedly give him a shot alongside Verstappen now.
While Tsunoda said last weekend that he would welcome such a move, others are not so sure. F1 analyst and former driver Raif Schumacher, speaking at the Chinese Grand Prix, warned Tsunoda off such a switch.
“I wouldn’t recommend it to anyone,” Schumacher explained. “If I were Tsunoda’s manager, I wouldn’t advise him to go there, because at the moment, the Racing Bull is the better car, and Tsunoda is doing very well with it. Moving to Red Bull wouldn’t do him any favors.
“I also believe that [Red Bull Technical Director Pierre] Waché is not necessarily overwhelmed by the task, but he doesn’t have it under control. This was meant to be a development concept, but he already struggled with it last year, and now with the new car, he still hasn’t figured it out. So I honestly can’t imagine why he would suddenly be able to fix it now.”
At the moment the VCARB02 is a more consistent car, with a bigger operating window, than the RB21. A move to Red Bull could put Tsunoda in a tougher position.
But given that it is the promotion he has been searching for, it would be hard to say no.
Ultimately, Red Bull should show a little patience here. Having decided to slide Lawson into the seat next to Verstappen, they need to give this move, and the young driver, time.
Whether history, and math, will see Red Bull give him that time, however, is a different question.
