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It’s now or never for Deshaun Watson and the Browns
The Deshaun Watson trade has been quite simply a trainwreck for the Cleveland Browns. After giving him a $230 million deal that was fully guaranteed, Watson has been mired by injuries and constant reminders of a player that he once was. As the Browns made their playoff run on the back of their top rated defense and Joe Flacco (!), the questions looming around the future of Watson and how good he truly is grew louder and louder.
Cleveland GM Andrew Berry isn’t one to wait around until it’s time for a change, but the Watson deal in itself is hard to skate around. Even if they wanted to cut him after the 2024 season, it would still eat up over $100 million in cap space, far too much to justify releasing one player.
What this means is that the Browns and Watson are stuck together until at least after the 2025 season. They have to make this work, to justify giving him the only fully guaranteed contract in NFL history. Now the question becomes: how do you get Deshaun Watson back to his high level of play?
Remnants of a player he once was
In 2020, Watson was known as one of the best passers in the entire league.Throwing for over 4,000 passing yards and 30 touchdowns, Watson was in the midst of a career year. While never being the best passer in structure, he was more than capable of doing that on top of being extremely creative outside of the pocket, one of the best passers in the league outside of structure.
That hasn’t followed him to Cleveland in any way, shape, or form. While he still tries to create outside of structure, the success of those plays has waned off in a major way. This, in turn, has turned him into a shell of the QB he once was: a QB who is no longer successful when he needs to get creative, yet someone who desperately wants to play the way he always has.
Allow me to explain: despite Watson’s sack rate when pressured remaining largely the same, his time to throw has increased and his On-Target Rate when pressured has gone down. When you watch Watson in 2020 compared to present day, he looks like a QB who is much less confident in both his body and what he’s seeing on the field when pressured.
Take this snap from 2020. Houston runs two shallow crossers in front of two deeper ones, with the Bengals in Cover 1. Watson gets pressure off the edge, but doesn’t take his eyes down. He steps up and out of the pocket calmly, then fires a strike to move the chains.
Now, compare this to 2023, when watching him play seemed to show more signs of a QB with variance and chaos than one of a QB who knows he’s under control when things go wrong. Deshaun Watson in 2023 looked like a QB who knew he used to be able to do these things, but now … not so sure.
Not only that, but Watson’s ball placement and accuracy have taken drastic dips since coming to Cleveland, especially in the short area. His inability to drive the ball and place it in tight windows has inhibited the Browns offense, on top of his inability to work in structure. Watson faced numerous shoulder injuries that sapped the true arm strength that he has, limiting the offense’s ability to go downfield. Where that also stood out is in the quick game, where arm strength helps QBs fit passes into very tight windows.
This pass is supposed to be put on the tight end in stick, but Watson dirts it and stops the flow of the offense. This happened far too much for a QB who was as highly regarded as he was, while also being as highly paid as he is.
Like, it got REALLY bad.
On top of that, when QB Joe Flacco entered the starting lineup after Watson’s season-ending injury, the Browns offense looked like it ran a bit smoother, and the productivity of targets like WRs Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore and TE David Njoku skyrocketed. He simply ran the offense better than Watson did in 2023, and that’s a problem for a guy who is making as much money as he is.
So, how can Stefanski get the best out of a QB who was supposed to answer all the Browns’ problems? How can he salvage what’s left of Watson in 2024?
Big Boy Browns Football
One of the things I noticed when watching the Browns’ offense last year was how successful they, and Watson, were out of 12 personnel and condensed sets. According to Sports Information Solutions, Watson threw the ball out of 12 personnel 18 times, but his On-Target Rate out of 12 jumps to 75%, a drastic improvement from where he was in total. While his aDOT out of 12 is a meager 6.4, his Sack Rate goes down and Watson looks a bit more comfortable with bigger bodies on the field. The same tune is sung with Flacco, whose aDOT of 8.6 and three TDs out of 12 paced the Browns signal-callers.
In addition, where Stefanski can help Watson even more is through the use of play action. While play action is not the magic elixir that fixes an offense, Watson’s mobility comes into play off run fakes and Stefanski could continue to work the ball downfield. Some of Watson’s best passes came off play action, with an On-Target Rate of 76.3% and a Positive Play Rate of 42%. With deep pockets off run fakes, Watson shows the ability to fire in passes, even if his arm strength isn’t what it was.
This sounds eerily similar to the game-plan for QB Russell Wilson in Denver, and to this point, they’re kind of similar. Both are very expensive QBs whose athleticism might be on the downward slope, that need more play action so they can take those shots downfield. Cooper and Njoku both also benefit from these shots downfield; in his time at QB Joe Flacco had the highest aDOT off play action in the entire league.
There’s a formula for Watson if he wants to salvage what might be a career that’s taken the wildest tailspin in NFL history. For he and the Browns’ sake, they’ll need to turn it around in 2024 and get him not to 2020 form, but at least passable.
