Peter Casey-Imagn Images
Deshaun Watson is the worst starting quarterback in the NFL, and the Browns have to bench him.
Let’s set the scene. With only 17 seconds left in the half, the Cleveland Browns have a 3rd-and-1 near midfield. They’re trailing the Washington Commanders 24-3 already. No timeouts left, but enough time to get into field goal range for Cleveland. The Browns dial up Dagger, a tried and true NFL passing concept that has a receiver run a clear-out route followed by a dig, attacking the middle of the field. Most times, the dig is open; Cleveland can hit the dig route, spike it, and try and get some points on the board.
Watch what Browns’ QB Deshaun Watson does on this play:
Watson drops back and then almost immediately goes to bail on a clean pocket, doesn’t see the dig open to the field side on Dagger, throws a hope ball into double coverage.
Yuck pic.twitter.com/KMIw8N1sKp
— JP Acosta (@acosta32_jp) October 7, 2024
Quite frankly, this is a microcosm of the Browns offense with Watson at the helm. Not only are they the worst offense in the NFL, with a 34.1% Success Rate that puts them dead last in the NFL—by most metrics they’re one of the worst offenses in the NFL SINCE 2000:
Bottom-10 offenses in EPA per drive since at least 2000:
789. 2018 Buffalo Bills
790. 2024 Cleveland Browns
791. 2009 Oakland Raiders
792. 2001 Washington Football Team
793. 2023 New England Patriots
794. 2004 Miami Dolphins
795. 2006 Oakland Raiders
796. 2013 Jacksonville…
— Austin Gayle (@austingayle_) October 7, 2024
After a miraculous season that saw the Browns get led to the playoffs by a stifling defense and Joe Flacco at QB, the Browns have face-planted to start this season Watson. The defense is still fairly good, 13th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed and Success Rate allowed. However, this offense has completely fallen off a cliff, and it starts with the quarterback. Watson has been the worst QB in the NFL again this season, and his play is actively tanking this entire offense. His Success Rate through five games is only in front of Bryce Young and the on the field results have backed up the data. While yes, the offensive line hasn’t played well, the solution to their offensive problem is simple:
Cleveland needs to bench Deshaun Watson. It’s been due, but the Browns can’t keep trying to stay afloat with a $230 million anchor weighing their offense down.
Let’s start with the offensive scheme. Head coach Kevin Stefanski still calls plays, but for the most part, it looks like two completely different offenses with Watson in and Watson out. Stefanski is an outside zone, under center-based coach who is a branch of the Gary Kubiak outside zone, under center scheme. In 2020 with QB Baker Mayfield under center, Stefanski’s shotgun rate was 29th in the NFL at about 42%, according to Sports Information Solutions. With Watson in 2024, that number has skyrocketed to 82%, good for sixth in the NFL. It seems clear that this isn’t the offense Stefanski wants to run, but he’s stuck with a QB that can’t execute the things that he wants him to do. The Browns hired Ken Dorsey to be their offensive coordinator and bring new ideas to help Watson acclimate to the offense, but now it just feels disjointed, two different ideas not meshing at all. Dorsey worked with Josh Allen last year in Buffalo, but a lot of his offense is predicated on winning in the quick game and using RPOs, which is what he brought to Cleveland. Yet, that doesn’t fit with his playcaller and it definitely doesn’t fit with his QB.
When he was in Houston, Watson was never a timing-based QB. Watson’s game was being able to create and execute despite holding onto the ball for longer than 2.5 seconds. However, at this stage of his career, Watson is one of the worst QBs in the NFL when holding the ball, and you can tell. He’s looking to escape when the pocket is clean, banking on athleticism and execution outside the pocket that just hasn’t been there. There are a few reasons for this, but I think the biggest one is the injuries he’s had. A torn ACL in 2021, various injuries to his shoulder once he got to Cleveland. It’s all sapped his athleticism and he hasn’t adjusted to it well at all. He’s lost his fastball and the thing that made him a special QB.
Bottom-five quarterbacks in success rate on throws 2.5+ seconds after the snap (via TruMedia):
25. Jacoby Brissett
26. Bo Nix
27. Will Levis
28. Aaron Rodgers
29. Deshaun Watson https://t.co/rNFTjtnYaK
— Austin Gayle (@austingayle_) October 7, 2024
It’s coming to the point where the Browns’ offense is actively sinking with Watson at QB. Yes, the offensive line hasn’t played well due to injury, but it’s largely the same group that Stefanski and the Browns had when they made the playoffs. Everything has remained the same—except the QB, in a lot of ways. Watson is trying to be a guy that he hasn’t been in four years, and it’s limiting the offense Stefanski wants to run. Something has to give for a team that still wants to remain competitive, and the only solution that makes sense is benching Watson.