Breaking down which top seeds in the 2025 women’s NCAA tournament can make it to Tampa.
Dawn Staley and Lindsay Gottlieb have both made noise in recent days about their team’s seeding in NCAA tournament. The Gamecocks and Trojans are both No. 1 seeds, but South Carolina is seeded second overall and USC is fourth. UCLA was the No. 1 overall seed, while Texas got the third nod.
But Staley really shouldn’t be complaining. One glance at South Carolina’s region — Birmingham 2 — shows that the Gamecocks’ path to what will be their fifth consecutive Final Four is pretty manageable.
Gottlieb, on the other hand, has a reason to complain. Spokane 4 might be the toughest region, although Birmingham 3 is no walk in the park either.
Let’s break down which regions provide the easiest or toughest paths to the Final Four.
Easiest: South Carolina’s road in Birmingham 2
It’s difficult to find a team in this region that is going to seriously give South Carolina a run for its money in the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight. And the top contenders here all have recent nightmares of getting absolutely throttled by the Gamecocks.
South Carolina vanquished Maryland from the 2023 NCAA tournament by beating them up in Greenville, S.C., 86-75. The next season, the Gamecocks toppled the Terrapins again, 114-76.
Courtney Banghart’s Tar Heels have been sent home from the NCAA tournament twice by the Gamecocks, once in a hard-fought battle in Greensboro in 2022, and then last season where North Carolina was absolutely outclassed in every facet of the game in a 88-41 second-round loss.
Kara Lawson’ Blue Devils — the No. 2 seed in this region — may have the best chance. They lost 81-70 to the Gamecocks in Columbia in December in a game where Duke’s stellar freshman Toby Fournier didn’t play all that well, and where Ashlyn Watkins was still healthy and suiting up for Staley. Lawson is 0-3 against Staley, losing each of those games by an average margin of 12 points.
Easy until the Elite Eight: UCLA and N.C. State in Spokane 1
While I think Baylor is a team that could give UCLA problems, I think this is the year that Cori Close and her Bruins finally get past the Sweet 16.
On the other side of the region, I’m not sure I totally believe in a banged-up LSU team to get by not only Florida State — armed with the nation’s leading scorer Ta’Niya Latson and one of the best post defenders in Makayla Timpson — but also N.C. State. And I know that LSU beat N.C. State back in November, but that was a game in which Tilda Trygger played just five minutes. She’s now N.C. State’s starting center, and a big reason why they were able to notch marquee wins down the stretch of the season.
A potential UCLA versus N.C. State matchup in the Elite Eight would be must-watch TV. Trygger will certainly have her hands full with the 6-foot-7 Betts, but I wonder if the Bruins are capable of guarding the Wolfpack’s trio of talented guards in Aziaha James, Saniya Rivers and Zoe Brooks.
Manageable until the Elite Eight: USC and UConn set for a collision course
It sure seems like the Selection Committee designed this region to set up a game between JuJu Watkins and Paige Bueckers for the third time in the span of a year. And indeed, if this region — Spokane 4 — goes chalk, we’ll get exactly that.
But the path to the Elite Eight isn’t easy for either team. This region features three SEC teams, one coached by Kenny Brooks and featuring Georgia Amoore, and another led by Reagan Beers. Then there’s a well-coached Iowa team that knows the rigors of March Madness, an Oklahoma State squad enjoying one of its best seasons in program history, and arguably the best mid-major team in the country in Fairfield.
The path for USC and UConn to meet is manageable, but there are landmines they will have to carefully get by.
The Toughest: Birmingham 3
In my opinion, this region has three teams with realistic chances of making the Final Four. Texas is the No. 1 overall seed here and lost just one game in SEC play. One of the Longhorns’ non-conference losses was to Notre Dame, who looked like the best team in the country for much of February. And then there’s TCU, which beat Notre Dame back in November, won the Big 12, and is having it’s best season in program history.
Texas coach Vic Schafer knows what it takes to get to the Final Four and so does Niele Ivey, Muffet McGraw’s protege. But Hailey Van Lith, the heart and soul of this TCU team, knows too, having gone there as a sophomore with Louisville in 2022.
But each of those teams have obstacles in front of them. Tennessee, armed with the nation’s second-best scoring offense, is the fifth seed here. South Florida is led by a veteran head coach, playing with nothing to lose and has a versatile and seasoned roster. Princeton is an NCAA tournament regular and so is Jeff Walz’s Louisville team. Iowa State is led by a pair of sophomore stars who are each capable of going off for 40 points, and strong Big Ten teams like Ohio State, Nebraska and Illinois are here too.
This seems like the toughest and most unpredictable region in the bracket.
