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The Chiefs are 4-0, but the way they’ve gotten there is frustrating.
The Kansas City Chiefs might be a fan of reruns, because they’re speedrunning their 2023 season.
Yes, they’re 4-0. Yes, Andy Reid is still the head coach and Patrick Mahomes is still under center. This team still might sleepwalk through a division that has Gardner Minshew and a rookie QB starting for two of the other three teams.
However, this isn’t just about winning the division for the Chiefs. It’s about making a championship run, and so far the Chiefs’ offense hasn’t looked Super Bowl-worthy. Now, they face an ever bigger hurdle with star wideout Rashee Rice out for a long time. Rice went down trying to make a play on a Mahomes interception, and the prognosis doesn’t look great:
Chiefs WR Rashee Rice is feared to have suffered a torn ACL during Sunday’s game vs the Chargers, per sources. There will be additional testing to confirm the initial diagnosis. pic.twitter.com/lx5FKFpCVj
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 29, 2024
This is the third major offensive piece the Chiefs have lost for a significant period of time, along with RB Isiah Pacheco and WR Hollywood Brown. The margin for error for this offense is razor thin, which is something this specific version of the Chiefs doesn’t need.
Rice was essentially performing in the TE Travis Kelce role as Kelce got back into game form. Heading into their tilt against the Chargers, Rice was fifth in the league in targets and was ninth in then NFL in EPA per target among receivers with 20 or more targets. He was the target as the Chiefs made their offense into this efficient buzzsaw underneath, battering teams with crossing routes and shallow targets for Rice and Kelce.
Yet, this season the offense has just looked sluggish. For a team that was supposed to be taking more shots downfield and being more aggressive, it hasn’t really seemed like it. Patrick Mahomes’ 5.4 Air Yards per attempt is 33rd among qualifying QBs, behind Minshew and Browns’ QB Deshaun Watson. Mahomes is still top 10 in Success Rate, but this offense looks so difficult at times.
Mahomes this season has felt off, forcing throws or bringing pressure on himself (Mahomes’ sack rate is the highest through four games since 2021, per Sports Information Solutions). The receivers have still felt disjointed from this offense, outside of the random Xavier Worthy lightning bolt like we saw on the touchdown against the Chargers on Sunday. However, we don’t really see those downfield targets in the offense. They feel tied to the RPO, and without Rice to win after the catch, they’ll have to rely on Worthy and Kelce to create after the catch. Which they can do, but the margin for error is much thinner without Rice in the lineup.
The Chiefs still might be fine! If there’s anyone I trust to find answers within the struggles of their offense, it’s Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. However, this offense has looked really inefficient to start the year, like a team that’s playing with a Super Bowl hangover. The defense is still terrific and could hold them in games until they get healthy or the offense figures it out (just like how we saw the 2023 season unfold for KC). Yet, this season feels a little different. It feels like Mahomes looks mortal, and with that, the margin for error gets thinner.
There are still solutions built into this offense. The Worthy touchdown can become something they can get to, using half rolls and play action to attack teams vertically. As they’ve added to the offensive line, getting consistent RB play in lieu of Pacheco will help loosen up defenses that gear up to defend the pass. Using Worthy on those crossing routes that Rice used to run will give this team more of a speed threat after the catch and force teams to keep up with the rookie across the field and not just downfield.
Obviously, the biggest one is Travis Kelce. Kelce had his best game of the year on Sunday, going for seven receptions and 89 yards on nine targets, leading the team in receptions and targets. Getting Kelce revved up will be huge with Rice out, with the easy buttons for the offense (hopefully) still being in place. Again, Mahomes and Reid still being there will be the ultimate force multiplier.
Despite not having Rice or Pacheco, the Chiefs will be fine, right?
Right?
