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Ryan Ramczyk’s injury is the final straw to break the Saints’ back.
It’s difficult to say much about the NFL with certainty when training camps are just opening around the league, but one thing is abundantly clear: The Saints are screwed.
On Thursday night it was revealed that All-Pro right tackle Ryan Ramczyk was done for the year due to issues resulting from his offseason knee surgery. Slow recovery and complications led to Ramczyk missing OTAs and the veteran minicamp, making the announcement an acknowledgment that the organization isn’t confident he can contribute in 2024 — and it might even spell the end to his time in New Orleans. Recent injuries have been brutal for Ramczyk, who has missed 12 games in the last three years, which is far more pronounced due to the high cap figure he’s carried.
It leaves the 2024 Saints with only a prayer they can be competitive, and it gets even worse down the line.
The immediate effect on the New Orleans Saints
Whether or not you think the Saints could have been competitive in 2024 is a matter of opinion. A 9-8 team a year ago, their biggest issues have less to do with moves they made, and rather ones the didn’t. Hamstrung by salary cap issues, it resigned New Orleans to really only making one move of note — signing DE Chase Young from the 49ers.
In order to make room for Young the team effectively gutted its depth. A total of 21 players were either relinquished or signed with other teams, compared to bringing in 15 total free agents. The fundamental issue is that every depth replacement the team made is a downgrade from a year ago, with the team’s core hope being that their starters could stay healthy.
The team loses its best, most-important offensive lineman with Ramczyk gone. It leaves New Orleans banking on rookie Taliese Fuaga at left tackle, and 2022 1st round pick Trevor Penning on the right. Penning changed positions this year after playing so poorly in 2023 they replaced him in the draft, and moved him down the depth chart.
This bodes poorly for Alvin Kamara, who struggled with inconsistent offensive line play in 2023. As a result it puts even more pressure on Derek Carr to deliver at QB, a guy who is still fundamentally Derek Carr — a brilliant stat-stuffer who has struggled to win games for his entire career.
Brass tacks: New Orleans is a worse team than a year ago, while having less depth — with the rest of the NFC South improving.
2024 is only the beginning…
The core issue with the Ramczyk injury is that it likely ends the Saints last decent chance to win the NFC South before they need a total rebuild. As we discussed back in February the salary cap situation for New Orleans is worse than any team in the league by a mile.
One could argue that the Dallas Cowboys have the same issues, and in many ways they do — but Dallas is struggling to piece together a roster that can make room for three legitimate All-Pro talents in Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons. The Saints have the same cap problems with none of the talent to show for it.
As it stands right now the Saints are already a projected $88M over the cap in 2025. The roster is littered with guys carrying cap hits way beyond their talent levels, with Alvin Kamara, Marshon Lattimore, Cameron Jordan, Derek Carr, and Ryan Ramczyk projecting to count for a mind-blowing $160M of the Saints cap next year.
New Orleans banked on kicking the can down the road and seeing the salary cap swell to cover their future debts, but it hasn’t happened at a rate to keep up with the Saints spending. As a result the organization has ludicrous future salary obligations, and no significant wins to show for it.
Furthermore, the Ramczyk injury is the exact nightmare scenario our own Matt Warren warned about with the risk of restructuring his deal.
“The other players at the top of the Saints’ cap hit list are mostly over 30, so restructuring and adding void years is riskier. RT Ryan Ramcyzk, DE Cameron Jordan, LB Demario Davis, TE/QB Taysom Hill, WR Michael Thomas, and SS Tyrann Mathieu all count more than $12 million on the cap in 2024 as of right now. With older players like that, they are more likely to fall off a performance cliff or retire, and a huge dead cap hit for them will throw an even bigger wrench in the plan.”
Guess what? This year the Saints re-worked Ramczyk’s deal to add void years in 2027 and 2028. Now he could be on the verge of retirement, which will activate a massive dead cap hit for the Saints as a result.
Is there a way out for the Saints?
Not a realistic one. Essentially the only way this team can rebuild and remain competitive is if they’ve managed to hit on every single one of their draft picks and continue to do this for the next 2-3 years. Playing rookies while slowly shedding their dead weight veterans is the only way out of this, and historically the Saints have been an uneven drafting team. They find some really amazing talent, but also make some significant whiffs — so to bank on this organization hitting on every pick is little more than a Hail Mary.
We’re left with a team that is an aging, overburdened camel doing everything just to trudge forward and be effective. The season-ending injury to Ryan Ramczyk might be the straw that finally broke its back.
