Will Derek Carr be the Saints’ quarterback in 2025 and beyond?
New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr was ruled out and didn’t play in Week 15 due to a concussion. Looking ahead, will the Saints be without their starting quarterback in 2025 and beyond? His contract will play a big role in that.
Contract details if Derek Carr stays with the Saints
Carr has a $10 million roster bonus due in March that is fully guaranteed. On the day that is paid, his 2025 salary of $30 million will also become fully guaranteed, so Carr is set to make $40 million in cash in 2025 if the team keeps him.
Carr’s cap hit in 2025 would then be $51.5 million if they don’t alter it in any way. The Saints rarely leave cap hits alone because they are always scrambling to be cap-compliant. So they could lower it by turning $38.7 million of that compensation into a new “signing bonus” to prorate it over five years. That would lower his cap hit to about $19.25 million (we’re using round numbers), shaving more than $30 million off the Saints’ total cap commitments.
Contract details if Derek Carr is released by the Saints
Carr is going to turn 34 this offseason and he has missed several games this season due to injury. Even so, he doesn’t look like he’s lost a step with similar numbers across the board to his previous seasons. If, however, a new coach comes in and wants a change at QB, the Saints could release Carr. It would be pretty tough on their cap situation, though.
For starters, the Saints owe Carr the $10 million roster bonus in March 2025 whether he is on the team or not.
The Saints have paid Carr $60 million in the last two seasons but only accounted for $19.9 million. The difference of $41.1 million will need to be accounted for if Carr leaves the roster via release or trade.
When you add the $41.1 million to the $10 million, Carr’s dead cap hit would be more than $51 million. That’s essentially equal to what his cap hit would be if he was on the team ($51.5 million).
All that being said, I don’t think this is a particularly likely option. The Saints are already almost $78 million over the projected cap a year from now and will need to create cap space, not lock in cap spending. Even a post-June 1 release would mean Carr’s cap hit counts until the beginning of June. I have no idea how they will get under the cap while releasing Carr.
Contract details if Derek Carr is traded by the Saints
There is a no-trade clause in the contract, so Carr has a lot of leverage here. To top it off, the Saints would only save about $10 million in this scenario. New Orleans could trade him before they need to pay him the $10 million roster bonus, but they would need to find a team that wants to pay him that $10 million plus $30 million in salary in 2025.
This wouldn’t solve the salary cap problem, though.
The Saints have paid Carr $60 million in the last two seasons but only accounted for $19.9 million. The difference of $41.1 million will need to be accounted for if Carr leaves the roster via trade.
Trading him would lower his cap hit from $51.5 to $41.1 million, but the Saints are $77 million over the projected cap. This would lower them to $67 million over, but without a realistic way to get under the cap.
What’s the best way forward for the Saints and Derek Carr?
At some point, the Saints have to take their medicine and account for the players they have paid. A good way forward would be to absorb as much of Carr’s cap hit as possible in 2025 so they can be flexible in 2026 or 2027 instead of being locked into more Carr.
But it remains incredibly likely Carr is the Saints quarterback in 2025 and probably 2026. If he’s not the starter, at least he will be on the roster.
His contract expires after 2026 but his cap hits will linger. Right now he will count more than $17 million on their 2027 cap even without signing a new contract, and that’s if they don’t push more money out. We’ve already said they are very likely to do that and continue their doom spiral.
