Will the 2024 NFL season reset the running back market? 

Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry are having great seasons, but will it have a lasting impact on running back contracts?

There are some singular contracts that don’t just reset the thought process for the teams offering those deals – they change the concept of overall and positional value in a much larger sense. Back in 2007, when rookie contracts were pretty much whatever teams wanted them to be, the then Oakland Raiders selected LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell with the first overall pick, and gave him a six-year, $61 million rookie deal with $29,019,120 guaranteed. Of course, Russell was one of the biggest busts in pro football history, and he was out of the NFL by 2010. It could be argued that Russell didn’t earn a dime of that contract, but he walked away with just more than $36 million of it (59.6%).

And that, kids, is why the NFL now has a slotted rookie wage scale, first implemented in the 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement to protect team owners and executives from themselves.

Why do running backs not sign big contracts anymore?

In 2015, the then St. Louis Rams selected Georgia running back Todd Gurley with the 10th overall pick in that draft. Gurley was valuable enough to the team through his first few seasons, the team doubled down and gave him a new four-year, $57,5 million deal with $21,95 million guaranteed. Gurley was anything but a bust when healthy, but that became the qualifier. 2018 was Gurley’s last great season. After that, his recurring knee issues caught up to him, and the Rams released him in March 2020. Gurley earned $27 million of his second contract (46.9%). After one season with the Atlanta Falcons in 2019, Gurley was done.

And that, kids, is why the NFL doesn’t pay running backs a lot of money anymore with rare exceptions.

The Carolina Panthers gave Christian McCaffrey a four-year, $64 million contract extension in 2020, and that obviously followed McCaffrey to San Francisco when McCaffrey was traded in October 2022. Kyle Shanahan has been highly successful with both McCaffrey and a bunch of lesser-known backs in his offense, and that played out this season with Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo when McCaffrrey was out for the first eight games of the season due to tendinitis in both of his Achilles tendons. This is in a year when the 49ers gave McCaffrey a new two-year, $38 million contract with $24 million guaranteed. We’ll see how that value pays out over the rest of the season. We don’t yet know whether the 49ers threw bad money after good following one of the best trades in franchise history.

Some recent running backs have been paid and successful

Of course, the two stars for team “Running Backs DO Matter” this season are Derrick Henry of the Baltimore Ravens and Saquon Barkley of the Philadelphia Eagles. Both backs are legitimate NFL Most Valuable Player candidates, and both were cast aside by their former teams. Henry signed a two-year, $16 million deal with Baltimore after several highly successful seasons with the Tennessee Titans, and the Eagles signed Barkley to a three-year, $37.75 million contract with $26 million guaranteed. That was seen as a Giant (sorry) overpay for a back who had been injured a lot with the New York Giants, especially since Eagles executive vice president/general manager Howie Roseman has traditionally not given running backs big deals over time.

Right now, Henry leads the NFL in carries (197), rushing yards (1,185), and rushing touchdowns (13). He’s forced 40 missed tackles, and nobody has more yards after contact than Henry.

In 10 games to Henry’s 11 (the Eagles had a Week 5 bye, the Ravens have to wait until Week 14), Barkley has 1,137 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns on 197 carries. He’s forced 34 missed tackles, and 620 of his rushing yards have come after contact.

Have Sqauon Barkley and Derrick Henry reset the running back market in free agency?

The extent to which these two backs have redefined their offenses have some very smart people believing that the running back market will look quite different when the 2025 league year begins. ESPN’s Louis Riddick is one.

Are there coaches and executives who will hope to get some of the same juice that the Ravens and Eagles got with their guys? Sure, because it’s a copycat league. But as we’re praising the Ravens and Eagles for getting it right, we also have to acknowledge that both Henry and Barkley are playing in more ideal offenses, and behind better offensive lines, than they did with their former teams. That’s not to minimize their accomplishments, but when 2025 rolls around, and teams are deciding whether to give team-defining deals to (hopefully) team-defining running backs, the prospects may not be as alluring.

Which running backs are free agents in 2025?

Of running backs currently set to be free agents next year, the top guys based on production in 2024 are James Conner of the Arizona Cardinals, Chuba Hubbard of the Carolina Panthers, Aaron Jones of the Minnesota Vikings, Javonte Williams of the Denver Broncos, Rhamondre Stevenson of the New England Patriots, the aforementioned Jordan Mason of the 49ers, and J.K. Dobbins of the Los Angeles Chargers.

All good players, but players whose production has waxed and waned over time, and whose best efforts may be as much or more about scheme and deployment than scheme-transcendent talent. There may not be table-setters at the position as Henry and Barkley have been in their best moments.

So, if you as a general manager need a franchise back, and you’re looking at the market, are you more likely to give a veteran a more expansive (and expensive) second or third contract when second and third contracts are generally where running backs go to die? Or are you going to put a rotation together on the cheap with a combination of low-priced vets and the best possible backs in the draft?

The 2025 NFL Draft class running backs factor in, too

That’s another complication when deciding whether Henry and Barkley will reset the market. Based on current estimations of NCAA backs who will be available in the 2025 draft, it’s a very strong class. Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty is the obvious top guy with 1,892 rushing yards and 26 rushing touchdowns on 256 carries, but the undercards are quite impressive.

• North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton is a 6-foot-1, 220-pound back who is quite happy to slash through defensive lines and linebackers, and then give defensive backs fits with his speed cuts and refusal to go down without a fight.
• UCF’s RJ Harvey is a shifty jump-cut freakazoid built to blast through tackles and confuse defenses with amazing short-area burst and movement.
• Jacksonville State’s Tre Stewart will have NFL teams wondering about his strength of competition, but he could be a real force as a speed/power back in the right rotation.
• Utah State’s Rahsul Faison is a patient runner at the line of scrimmage who can explode into the second and third levels of a defense, and will leave defenders gasping with his own cuts.
• Auburn’s Jarquez Hunter has been plowing through the SEC’s best defenses for a while now, and he’s improved in every one of his four collegiate seasons as an impactful power back.

On and on the names go.

Can Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley make a lasting impression on the running back market?

For one or two players to truly reshape the NFL’s comprehension of the importance of their position, a perfect storm does need to happen that goes beyond what those players have done for their teams. There needs to be a clear pipeline of top-tier talent that may have been misused or miscast with other NFL teams – enough to spark the notion of untapped potential. It also helps if the draft class at that position isn’t as strong as the 2025 running back class is. And the position in question needs to be one in which the perception is clear that if you don’t have one of Those Guys, you’re going to fall short of your franchise goals.

So, will Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley have some NFL teams hoping for their own versions, and spending accordingly? Most likely, the running back market won’t explode as a result. Instead, you’ll have the one or two odd contracts that have us all shaking our heads, and far more instances in which backs are either paid less than what they may be “worth.” Also, because you don’t need one special back to get your run game going in today’s NFL, a lot of teams will be far more interested in stitching together the best rotations and tiers at the position.

It may not be what running backs and their agents want to hear. But it’s been this way for a decent number of years now, the cautionary tales are still on everybody’s minds, and there are as many (or more) of those as there are positive outliers.