This matchup will decide the Chargers vs. Texans playoff game.
Matchup to watch: Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert vs the Texans’ middle of the field pass defense
While this game has potential to be the snoozer of the wild card round, I actually think there are some interesting points where the game can swing. If the Texans’ offense can pick up a blitz for the first time this season they might be able to pull off the upset, but against a Chargers’ defense that’s known for making lives miserable for opposing offenses via creative blitz packages and pressure looks, it might be uphill sledding. So I’m flipping riverside, focusing on how Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert performs in his return to the playoffs against a Texans’ defense that is very good, very fast and very physical.
As good as I think the Texans’ defense is, I still think they have some issues over the middle of the field. This is largely due to their inexperience at the linebacker spots but per Sports Information Solutions (SIS), the Texans allow a 0.22 EPA per play when offenses target the middle of the field, 25th in the NFL. Outside the hashes, they’re first with a -0.11 EPA per play allowed. Avoiding throwing at dynamo CBs Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter is a must for LA, especially because they don’t have the advantage talent-wise on the outside. Plays like this for LA are going to be available, especially if they get the run game going:
Herbert and the Chargers’ skill position players haven’t been the best over the middle of the field, but using play action to pry open those areas has been a strong suit of their game, naturally considering who calls plays for them. Herbert is fourth in the NFL in total EPA when targeting the middle of the field off play action, and his 9.0 Yards per Attempt is good for ninth in the NFL.
The Chargers love getting into heavier personnel to throw these downfield shots off play action as well, and catching over-exuberant LBs off balance is their bread and butter.
With how fast flowing and aggressive the Texans’ second level plays, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chargers try and hit them with some heavy play action shots over the middle to keep them honest. It’ll have to be what works, because the Texans’ dudes on defense are capable of taking over games.
Individual battle to watch: Texans’ EDGEs Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. vs. Chargers’ tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt
