12 MLB playoff teams, ranked by their World Series chances

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Ranking the 12 playoff teams in Major League Baseball by their World Series chances

The MLB playoffs get underway today, as 12 teams still have their hopes for a World Series title alive.

But what team has the best shot at seeing those dreams realized?

There is certainly a case to be made for both the Atlanta Braves and the Los Angeles Dodgers, as well as the Baltimore Orioles, as all three teams won more than 100 games this season. The Houston Astros found their way back to the AL West crown, earning a bye as well.

Yet you could find a case for any of the 12 teams left standing to make a run at a title.

So let’s rank those 12 teams by their World Series chances, as voted on by the staff here at SB Nation. Check out full World Series odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.

12. Miami Marlins

The Miami Marlins qualified for the playoffs for just the fourth time in franchise history, but there is something different about this year. 2023 marks the third time that the Miami Marlins have qualified for the playoffs following a full season, as the franchise qualified for the 2020 playoffs during the COVID-shortened season.

Those other two appearances? Those came in 1997 and 2003.

Where they won the World Series both times.

They might not have a specific strength you can point to, as they put up average numbers at best as a team both on the bump and at the dish. But what do they have going for them? They find ways to win, as they did down the stretch. When dawn broke on September 1, the Marlins were two games out of a Wild Card spot. Yet Miami went 17-9 in the month of September, their second-best month of the season.

They were also 33-13 in one-run games this season, a .717 winning percentage in such games.

Out of the 12 teams left standing, that is the best winning percentage in those situations.

One last item that could work in their favor? They get the Philadelphia Phillies in the Wild Card round.

Miami won the season series 7-6.

11. Arizona Diamondbacks

Do you like speed?

Then you might love the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Stolen bases are up around the league, due in part to the new MLB rules regarding pitcher disengagements, the shift, and the size of bases. At the front of the new baserunning revolution are the Diamondbacks, who were second in the majors with 166 stolen bases this year as a team.

They were also fourth in average stolen base attempts per game.

Leading the way on the bases for the Diamondbacks is Corbin Carroll, who swiped 54 bases this year, getting caught just five times. Carroll, who is the likely NL Rookie of the Year, is part of the youth movement in Arizona, along with catcher Gabriel Moreno, whom Arizona acquired via a trade with the Toronto Blue Jays in December of 2022.

Many believe the Diamondbacks are a year ahead of schedule, which may be the case. But with their team speed, coupled with a pair of starters in Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly that could make things interesting in a best-of-three series, they could throw a scare into some teams this October.

10. Toronto Blue Jays

How can the Toronto Blue Jays made a deep run this October?

If their big bats heat up at the right moment.

Here’s what we mean. Take Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has a slash line of .264/.345/.444, below his numbers from last year and well off his career-best season of 2021. Certainly if he heats up over the next few weeks, that would go a long way towards Toronto making a deep run. However, his slash line over the last 28 days (.267/.388 /.512) might not inspire confidence.

Then there is George Springer, whose OPS of .732 this season is the lowest mark of his career. Like Guerrero, however, he too has been cool over the last month, but if he could tap into what he did in August, when he posted an OPS of .840 and hit four home runs, that would be big for Toronto.

Or, imagine if both somehow get hot?

Because the Blue Jays have the starting pitching — led by Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, and Jose Berrios — to make a run. But if their bats come alive, that would give them a huge boost.

9. Minnesota Twins

If the playoffs come down to pitching, as they often do, that would be huge for the Twins.

Manager Rocco Baldelli said ahead of the playoffs that he expects Minnesota to have a top three of Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, and Joe Ryan to start things off. Lopez went 11-8 this season with a 3.66 ERA, while Gray finished 8-8 with a 2.79 ERA. As for Ryan, he posted an ERA of 4.51 this year. Both Gray and Lopez posted matching WHIPs of 1.15, and both were in the top 20 of all of baseball when it comes to batting average against.

They also expect to get some critical arms back for the bullpen, as Chris Paddack and Brock Stewart are expected to return from injury.

The bigger question might be where the offense will come from, but the Twins are hoping to get some good news on the injury front with Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton and Joey Gallo hoping to be back for the playoffs.

If they get some combination of those players back — and it is a big if — that could make things very interesting for the Twins.

8. Philadelphia Phillies

Last season the Phillies put together a magical ride to the World Series. While that ride ended short of a title, could they get over that hump this season?

There are a few reasons to think they can.

Just like last season, the Phillies again struggled into June. A year ago manager Joe Girardi was dismissed on June 3 after Philadelphia started the year 21-29. They finished 65-46 under then-interim manager Rob Thomson, clinching their first playoff berth since 2011.

This year? On June 2 the Phillies lost their fifth-straight game, to the rebuilding Washington Nationals. That loss dropped them to 25-32 on the season, and their playoff odds at the time were just 21%.

Since then the Phillies have gone 65-40.

That certainly feels a lot like last year.

7. Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers have never won a World Series.

Could this be the year they finally break that streak?

A pair of MVP candidates, a potent lineup, and a rebuild pitching staff, could put them over that hurdle. With Marcus Semien and Corey Seager, the Rangers have two players in the conversation for AL MVP, and while it is almost guaranteed that award goes to Shohei Ohtani, their middle infielders have put up impressive numbers this year.

Seager is among the league leaders in a number of categories, including batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS, while Semien gets things started at the top of the order for Texas. Semien added another 29 home runs this year as well.

All told, this offense is among the league leaders in a number of categories as a team, including batting average (second), on-base percentage (third), and OPS (third).

When it comes to pitching, the Rangers made a number of moves over the offseason and at the trade deadline to add some depth, and they’ll roll into the playoffs hoping those moves pay off. Something to watch? Max Scherzer, acquired by the team at the trade deadline, was shut down for the regular season with a shoulder injury.

But there are rumblings that the veteran, who has started throwing again, could be back for the playoffs, perhaps in a bullpen role.

6. Milwaukee Brewers

If the old adage “good pitching beats good hitting” holds true this postseason, that could be a very good thing for the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Brewers currently boast the best team ERA in the majors with a 3.70 mark, and lead the National League with a WHIP of 1.18, behind only the Tampa Bay Rays in all of MLB. The Brewers have also held opposing hitters to a batting average of just .226, lowest in baseball. This stall also allowed the fewest runs in the majors over the second half of the season, something that bodes very well for their chances this October.

Milwaukee also has their rotation lined up for the postseason, with Corbin Burns set to take the mound in Game 1 of the NLDS, followed by Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta. They’ve also got left-hander Wade Miley, who went 9-4 this season with a 3.14 ERA, as a solid fourth option.

Oh, and they have Devin Williams in line to close out games, with a changeup so good it earned a nickname, the “Airbender.”

Offensively, the best way to describe the Brewers is that this is a “balanced” lineup. They do not put up huge numbers — Milwaukee ranks 23rd in team batting average, 17th in team OBP, 23rd in team OPS and 27th in team slugging percentage — but if their pitching carries over to the playoffs, it could be enough.

5. Houston Astros

This season has certainly been a grind for the Houston Astros.

But the defending World Series Champions still have a shot at repeating.

Houston has dealt with injuries, some bad games, and a roller-coaster ride to the postseason throughout the entire year. Houston found themselves down by as many as 6.5 games to the Texas Rangers in the division, clawed back to take a lead in the AL West in September, but then gave that lead back to the Rangers over the final few days of the season.

But this is an experienced team that has been through the trials and tribulations of playoff baseball before, and while the rookie back half of their rotation (J.P. France and Hunter Brown) has struggled down the stretch, the top of their rotation could be enough. After all, thanks to Sunday’s results even with those struggles this season the Astros still won the West, giving them the No. 2 seed in the American League and a bye to the ALDS.

That means they can get Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez to start the ALDS on regular rest, followed by Cristian Javier, who started the regular season finale and went six strong innings.

So while this has been an up-and-down season, the Astros still have a path in front of them for a deep postseason run.

4. Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays might have missed out on the American League East title, and found themselves locked into the fourth seed in the AL well before the weekend, but there are a number of reasons to believe that Tampa Bay could put together a deep run this October.

It starts with their pitching. The Rays have a solid staff, front to back, that posted the fifth-best team ERA in all of baseball. This staff also posted the best WHIP in all of MLB (1.17), and the second-best batting average against, with .231.

Their rotation seems set up for the playoffs, with Tyler Glasnow expected to throw in Game 1 on Tuesday, with 16-game winner Zach Eflin working Game 2 on Wednesday, and Aaron Civale slated for Game 3 if necessary.

Glasnow posted a 10-7 record with a 3.53 ERA this season, but was shaky down the stretch, with a 4.86 ERA in the month of September.

Then there is what the Rays can do at the play. Tampa Bay has one of the best offenses in baseball, with the team ranked among the league’s best in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS.

They can hit, and they can pitch. Usually a good combination in October.

3. Baltimore Orioles

The fun is back in Birdland.

Just two seasons ago the Orioles finished with a 52-110 record. Now? Baltimore is atop the AL East for the first time since 2014, and have won 100 games for just the sixth time in franchise history.

On four of those previous five occasions (1969, 1970, 1971 and 1979) they advanced to the World Series.

There are many reasons to believe the Orioles make it five out of six this October. Baltimore is so deep with their position players that manager Brandon Hyde may even face some tough decisions over the next few weeks. After a 34-game stint last year and a slow start to begin 2023, Gunnar Henderson is the odds-on favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year and looks every bit like a future MVP. The Orioles have hitters up and down the lineup that can punish pitchers when mistakes are made.

The biggest question? The bullpen. Closer Félix Bautista has been dominant this season, but suffered a partial UCL tear at the end of the summer and it was just announced by the team that he will undergo Tommy John surgery, ending hopes he could be back for the playoffs. Do not be surprised if the Orioles turn to Tyler Wells, a starter early in the year who was demoted to the minors for a stint and is back as a reliever, for some critical late-game situations.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have dealt with a lot this season, particularly injuries which decimated their rotation. Clayton Kershaw has dealt with shoulder issues all season, they lost Walker Buehler for the year due to Tommy John surgery, Dustin May’s season was cut short due to an elbow injury, and Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin, and Noah Syndergaard all spent time on the IL with injuries.

Yet here they are, having won their 10th division title in 11 years and primed for another deep playoff run.

Offensively, while the Dodgers are not the kind of team the Braves are, they are not too far behind. Los Angeles is second behind only Atlanta in team OBP and OPS, and third in the majors in team slugging percentage. They have an MVP candidate of their own in Mookie Betts, and for the first time in club history four players — Betts, J.D. Martinez, Max Muncy, and Freddie Freeman — knocked in 100 runs or more.

If Kershaw can channel his inner Billy Chapel and push the sun back up in the sky and give the Dodgers one more day of summer, then LA can make a deep run of their own.

1. Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves won their sixth-straight division title this season. They locked up the top spot in the National League and will have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They have one of baseball’s most dynamic players in the lineup in Ronald Acuña Jr., the founding member of the 40/70 Club.

This is also a lineup that can absolutely mash. Atlanta leads the majors in a number of offensive categories including home runs, runs batted in, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS.

What’s not to love?

Well, pitching might be a question as the playoffs loom. Atlanta’s Max Fried is out with a blister, although he is expected back for the NLDS. Charlie Morton, however, is likely on the shelf until the NLCS should Atlanta advance with a finger injury of his own. All-Star Bryce Elder, who posted a 7-2 record over the first half of the season with an ERA of 2.97, is just 5-2 in the second half with an ERA of 5.11. Even Spencer Strider has struggled in recent games, having allowed 18 earned runs in his five latest starts.

Thankfully for the Braves, their offense looks capable of overcoming those struggles.