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Why Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence contract extensions are not as good as they look.
When NFL contracts are breathlessly reported by the NFL media following an agreement, the normal numbers usually bandied about are total money, total years, and total guaranteed. All of these can be misleading, though, when years and money are added on to the end of contract that won’t ever come into play, especially if the player underperforms and is released.
Instead, we should look at things like first-year money, total fully guaranteed money, and three-year money as better metrics for strength of the deal.
First-year money usually means signing bonus, and the more money you get up front, the more potential opportunity you have to spend or invest it how you want instead of waiting. It also strengthens the deal for the player — if the team wants to move on from you in the future, you already have their money.
Usually the guaranteed money number agents tell reporters is the total guarantee — fully guaranteed money plus injury guaranteed money. Injury guarantees are only paid out if a player suffers a career-ending injury, and that just doesn’t happen very often. The fully guaranteed money is paid no matter what, but cutting a player negates the injury guarantee.
Three-year money is also a good indicator of overall contract strength, especially for younger players signing their second contracts in the NFL. These are the prime earning years, so you want them to be loaded.
Here’s an example I’ve used frequently to discuss the merits of first-year money and three-year money: Dak Prescott made $66 million in a signing bonus the day he inked his deal with the Cowboys 2021. Patrick Mahomes signed his deal in 2020 — a full year before Prescott — but only got $10 million in signing bonus and made $63 million total from 2020 through 2022. It took Mahomes more than three years to get the same money Prescott received the day he signed his contract, meaning Dak’s first-year and three-year money numbers were much higher. He had the opportunity to use that money while Mahomes didn’t.
With that explainer, let’s turn our attention to the six significant contracts NFL quarterbacks signed this offseason; Baker Mayfield with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was first, followed by Kirk Cousins with the Atlanta Falcons, Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions, Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars, Tua Tagovailoa with the Miami Dolphins, and most recently Jordan Love with the Green Bay Packers.
I’ve listed them in order from strongest to weakest.
Jared Goff’s contract is the one I would most want
I love the structure of Goff’s deal from a player perspective. He received the most Year 1 money and the second-most fully guaranteed money in total. He has a rolling guarantee that fully guarantees his Year 3 salary in March 2025, so the Lions would have to cut him after this season and pay him $118 million for one year of the deal in order to move on. It’s a very, very strong deal.
Year 1: $80 million
Year 2: $18 million
Year 3: $55 million
Three-year money: $153 million
Fully guaranteed: $113 million
Green Bay Packers broke with tradition in Jordan Love deal
Typically, the Green Bay Packers don’t guarantee money beyond Year 1 except on rookie deals where they’re mandated. With Love, they guaranteed money into Year 3 of the deal in 2026. On top of that, they added rolling guarantees, so more money will become fully guaranteed for the following year in both March 2025 and March 2026.
Year 1: $79 million
Year 2: $13 million
Year 3: $51 million
Three-year money: $143 million
Fully guaranteed: $100.8 million
Only two years guaranteed for Tua Tagovailoa
Unlike the other four biggest contracts here, Tagovailoa has no guaranteed money beyond 2025. If he has a lousy year in 2024, it’s at least conceivable that the Dolphins could cut him to avoid guaranteeing him his $54 million 2026 salary. (I would have said it was impossible until the Broncos did something similar with Russell Wilson.) Where Love and Goff got big money in Year 1, the Dolphins spread his cash payments out, and he makes only $43 million. It’s the weakest deal of all the ones on this list, and Tua will have to keep playing well to keep getting paid.
Year 1: $43 million
Year 2: $51 million
Year 3: $55 million
Three-year money: $149 million
Fully guaranteed: $93.2 million
Trevor Lawrence traded early cash for more guaranteed money
In the five biggest contracts signed this offseason, Lawrence has the smallest numbers in Year 1 and Years 1+2 and Years 1-3. His initial numbers are smaller, but he does have big money guaranteed into Year 4 in 2027. In all, $142 million of his contract is fully guaranteed, much higher than the rest of the field. But he’s definitely the lowest-paid player in the group, and the deal never gets over $44 million in average cumulative cash. If I’m the player, it’s my least-favorite deal because I don’t have my money for several years and it’s locked in that way.
Year 1: $39 million
Year 2: $37.5 million
Year 3: $37.5 million
Three-year money: $114 million
Fully guaranteed: $142 million
Kirk Cousins gets one more really strong deal by leaving Minnesota for Atlanta
While Goff turns 30 this October, Cousins is definitely the elder statesman of the group and his contract reflects that. Each of Cousins’ previous contracts have been fully guaranteed going all the way back to his 2016 franchise tag with the Washington football team, but his current contract with Atlanta only guaranteed the first two seasons. Even so, the $90 million over the first two years stacks up with the rest of the group and comes in ahead of Lawrence. With the way the 2024 NFL Draft played out, and the lack of guaranteed money beyond 2025, it’s unlikely Cousins will see Year 3 here.
Year 1: $62.5 million
Year 2: $27.5 million
Year 3: $45 million
Three-year money: $135 million
Fully guaranteed: $90 million
Baker Mayfield is helping to create the NFL QB’s middle class
For the last several years, there wasn’t really a middle class in QB contracts. You were either among the highest-paid players, joining the group making more than $40 million per season, or you were the journeyman making under $15 million. Geno Smith in 2023 signed for $25 million per season and Mayfield followed this offseason, signing for $33 million per year. Tampa can move on from Mayfield after paying him $40 million for his 2024 on-field play or pay him $60 million for two seasons with a team option for 2026 at $40 million.
Year 1: $30 million
Year 2: $30 million
Year 3: $40 million
Three-year money: $100 million
Fully guaranteed: $40 million
Here is how they all stack up in those key metrics:
First-year cash
Jared Goff $80 million
Jordan Love $79 million
Kirk Cousins $62.5 million
Tua Tagovailoa $43 million
Trevor Lawrence $39 million
Baker Mayfield $30 million
Two-year cash
Jared Goff $98 million
Tua Tagovailoa $94 million
Jordan Love $92 million
Kirk Cousins $90 million
Trevor Lawrence $76.5 million
Baker Mayfield $60 million
Three-year cash
Jared Goff $153 million
Tua Tagovailoa $149 million
Jordan Love $143 million
Kirk Cousins $135 million
Trevor Lawrence $114 million
Baker Mayfield $100 million
Fully guaranteed money
Trevor Lawrence $142 million
Jared Goff $113 million
Jordan Love $100.8 million
Tua Tagovailoa $94 million
Kirk Cousins $90 million
Baker Mayfield $40 million
