The Players Championship is one of the most unpredictable tournaments of the year. Here are three bold predictions for the 2025 edition.
Every year, something weird takes place at The Players Championship.
Maybe it’s because TPC Sawgrass does not necessarily cater to a specific type of player, although solid ball-striking and accuracy off the tee are essential. The course also challenges a player’s mind and baits the player into making poor decisions with its numerous hazards. This explains why TPC Sawgrass went 41 years without having a repeat winner. Scottie Scheffler, of course, changed that last year.
Strange things also happen because The Players boasts one of the strongest fields year-in and year-out. Having the world’s best compete alongside each other can lead to an array of outcomes that nobody could have foreseen. No one could have predicted that 21-year-old Si Woo Kim would take down the likes of Louis Oosthuzien and Ian Poulter in 2017. Nor could anyone have expected a 48-year-old Fred Funk to win in 2005. Remember how Paul Goydos almost beat Sergio Garcia in a playoff in 2007? Goydos was not on anyone’s radar that week too.
At any rate, here are three bold predictions for this week at TPC Sawgrass:
3. Record Scoring Threatened
After opening with a 9-under 63, which matched the course record at the time, Greg Norman went on to win The 1994 Players Championship at 24-under par. ‘The Shark’ followed up his brilliant 63 with three straight 5-under 67s, setting the 72-hole scoring record that still stands today. He won the tournament by four shots over Fuzzy Zoeller.
This year’s Players Championship calls for picture-perfect weather with sunny skies, light winds, and temperatures in the low-to-mid seventies, which is part of why someone will threaten Norman’s record this week. The Jacksonville-area received heavy rain on Sunday night and into Monday, thus softening TPC Sawgrass a little bit and making it easier on the field. The course is in ideal condition, perfect for scoring.
Scottie Scheffler also won the tournament at 20-under last year, which saw no rain and dry weather. Considering the course will play a little softer this week, the 20-under threshold should be reached and then some. Get ready for a birdie barrage in Ponta Vedra Beach.
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2. Pair of Top-10 Players Miss the Cut
Household names seem to miss the cut every year. In 2024, Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas missed the cut, although, at the time, neither player had the form or pedigree of a top-10 player. The year before, in 2023, Rory McIlroy missed the cut, as did reigning U.S. Open champion Matt Fitzpatrick.
Our second bold prediction is that two players currently ranked among the top-10 of the Official World Golf Rankings will miss the cut. One player we are concerned about is Xander Schauffele, who returned to competition last week for the first time in two months at Bay Hill. The World No. 3 barely made the cut, doing so on the number, thus extending his consecutive made cuts streak to 58 in a row. But he still looked rusty after returning from his rib injury, slapping his way around Bay Hill to post a T-40.
Another player to watch out for is Russell Henley, who just won the Arnold Palmer Invitational in dramatic fashion. Henley’s form is not an issue; rather, it’s often difficult for a player to follow up an emotional victory with another solid performance the week after. Henley has the talent to contend and win this week at TPC Sawgrass. But will the mental exhaustion of securing a big win on a challenging course be too much to overcome?
Two other top-10 players who could very well miss the cut are Thomas and Tommy Fleetwood, but time will tell if this prediction holds. Yet, it’s worth repeating that strange things happen at TPC Sawgrass every year.
1. Non-American Winner
TPC Sawgrass has seen a wide variety of international winners since 2000: from a young Adam Scott in 2004 to an even younger Si Woo Kim in 2017. Spaniard Sergio Garcia, Swede Henrik Stenson, and South African Tim Clark have all won at TPC Sawgrass, but so have K.J. Choi of South Korea, Stephen Ames of Canada, and Martin Kaymer of Germany over the past 25 years.
The most recent international winner is Cameron Smith, who conquered TPC Sawgrass in 2022 before winning The Open four months later at St. Andrews. Shortly thereafter, he was off to LIV Golf. Smith has yet to play at The Players Championship since.
Photo by Keyur Khamar/PGA Tour via Getty Images
With Scottie Scheffler conquering TPC Sawgrass in back-to-back years, the tournament is due to produce another international winner. Maybe it’s Ludvig Åberg, the Swedish phenom who recently won the Genesis Invitational. Or does Canadian Corey Conners finally get that career-changing victory? His game matches up well with TPC Sawgrass. Other international players to watch out for include Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Sepp Straka, and Shane Lowry.
Another reason we like a non-American winner is because international players have dominated the PGA Tour thus far in 2025. It’s been one of the big themes of the season. Only four Americans have emerged victorious, with Russell Henley being the most recent player to do so. The other three are Harris English (Farmers Insurance Open), Brian Campbell (Mexico Open), and Joe Highsmith (Cognizant Classic). International players have won all the others, including three of the four Signature Events played to date. That trend continues this week in Northeast Florida.
Jack Milko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation’s Playing Through. Follow him on X @jack_milko.
