These young teams could take a significant step forward in 2025.
About this time last year, virtually no prognosticators predicted that any more than the requisite one American League Central team would make the postseason. In a division in which seemingly every team was a .500 team, the assumption was the division winner would sneak their way into the postseason dance only because rules stipulate that every division, no matter how putrid, be represented.
Fast forward to the wild card round of the postseason when not one, not two, but three teams from the AL Central made it to the playoffs. The Guardians finished with the second-most wins in the American League (92) and earned a first-round bye, while the Royals (86) and Tigers (86) earned the final two wild cards.
Detroit, Cleveland and Kansas City were three of the final four AL teams left standing when all was said and done, outlasted only by the Yankees. To say the emergence of the Royals and, especially, the Tigers, was unexpected would be an understatement.
But that’s usually how it is in every sport. Each season, a team no one expected takes a step forward. Sometimes, it’s a leap. Who are the best candidates to do so in 2025?
I have three potentials, ranked from strongest possibility to weakest.
Cincinnati Reds
Why They’ll Win: The first of my two National League Central teams on this list, the Red Leggings have the look of a spunky bunch in 2025. Fangraphs’ projections has Cincy at 78-84 this year, tied with the Pirates for last in the NL Central, but not far off the pace of the 79-win Cardinals, 81-win Brewers or 84-win Cubs. The Central champ likely won’t finish with more than 89 wins, so all it would take is a 12-win improvement over their 77-85 campaign from a year ago to pull that off. Despite finishing 8 games under .500, the Reds actually finished with a +5 run differential, meaning they should have finished around .500.
They have an MVP candidate in third baseman Elly De La Cruz, who put up 6.4 fWAR a season ago, hit 25 homers, scored 105 runs, and posted an .809 OPS. He has a 1.324 OPS this spring. Hunter Greene is a bona fide ace, and a rotation of Nick Martinez, newcomer Brady Singer and Nick Lodolo is spunky. They also have Terry Francona taking the reins, raising the floor of this team even higher.
Why They Won’t: Outside of De La Cruz, Cincinnati may have trouble scoring runs. Second baseman Matt McClain forms the other half of a decent double play combination with Elly, but a starting outfield of TJ Friedl, Austin Hays and Jake Fraley isn’t exactly murderer’s row. And their presumptive closer, Alexis Diaz, has struggled mightily this spring and was sent to the team’s minor league camp to work on his mechanics. The Cubs and Brewers both appear stronger, but it’s still only mid-March. Lots can happen!
Athletics
Why They’ll Win: For a team that doesn’t even have a city attached to their name right now, the A’s are at the very least going to be fun to watch. Playing their home games at a Sacramento minor league stadium, big boppers Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler lead a dynamic offense that features an up-and-coming center field star in JJ Bleday, shortstop Jacob Wilson and second baseman Zack Gelof. The A’s 196 dingers were 8th-most in baseball last season.
In short, they’re going to score a lot of runs. See what I mean? That’s fun!
They also went 32-32 after the All Star break after a .378 winning percentage in the first half. They also play in a division that is completely wide open. The Astros are a crumbling regime, the Rangers have their weaknesses, the Mariners perpetually underachieve and the Angels will undoubtedly crater at some point. There’s also Mason Miller, the game’s most electric closer. He throws over 100 mph.
That’s fun, too!
Why They Won’t: Well, everything else. The starting rotation features one of the AL’s weakest aces, Luis Severino, along with Jeffrey Springs, JP Sears and Mitch Spence. The bullpen could be a bit of an adventure, too. They’re going to lose a lot of these shootouts, so if you’re into collecting souvenirs, Sacramento may be the place for you this summer.
There’s also the controversy surrounding the move from Oakland, the hatred of the fanbase toward the team’s owner, and their uncertain future. Playing at the Coliseum was undoubtedly no fun for anyone, but is Sutter Health Park going to be any better? Don’t worry, 2028 in Vegas is right around the corner!
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why They’ll Win: The Pirates are the Bizarro A’s. They started out well, 48-48 at the All Star Break, but finished 28-38 in the second half. And unlike the Athletics, they can pitch with the best of them, but can’t hit. Cy Young finalist Paul Skenes, who put together one of the most dominating performances we’ve ever seen by a rookie hurler, fronts a young and dynamic top three with Mitch Keller and Jared Jones, with prospects like Braxton Ashcraft and Bubba Chandler ready to make significant contributions this year. Andrew Heaney ain’t bad, either.
They’ve also got a quality bullpen. David Bednar struggled a bit for the first time in his career, I would expect a bounceback. The rest of the ‘pen has some hard throwers in it, too. They will keep the Pirates in most games and they’ll steal their fair share of one-run games this season.
Pittsburgh has a dynamic young player in Oneil Cruz, and although he hasn’t broken out the way Elly has, he does possess similar potential. Bryan Reynolds hasn’t been able to replicate his 6.0 WAR season of 2021 but did return to the All Star Game last season with a 3.6 WAR season and .791 OPS. Ke’Bryan Hayes is a solid young third baseman, too.
Why They Won’t: The rest of the lineup is highly suspect. Joey Bart and Endy Rodriguez will split time at catcher, Spencer Horwitz, their first baseman, will miss the beginning of the season with a wrist injury and isn’t a top-half player at the position in the AL, Tommy Pham is going to get way too much playing time, as is Andrew McCutchen, back for another season as the team’s DH.
While the bullpen has a bunch of young, hard throwers, they will miss Aroldis Chapman in the latter innings, and they don’t really have good left-handed options in the ‘pen. It’s something the Pirates hope will materialize as players get promoted from the minors, but it’s a definite weakness heading into the season.
And yet, there is hope for all three teams that, in 2025, they can snag a playoff spot. Once you do, anything can happen.
