Only a handful of teams can realistically win the 2025 NBA championship. Let’s rank ‘em.
The NBA is in its parity era, and it’s made the race of the championship more wide open than it’s been at any point in the league’s existence. NBA history is littered with dynasties, but those days might be over: no team has won back-to-back championships since Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry’s Golden State Warriors were dominating the league back in 2017 and 2018. Ever since, the NBA has had six different champions in six years.
The Boston Celtics are trying to win back-to-back championships this season after coasting to a title through a relatively easy path last season. Boston is again one of the elite teams in the NBA, but they don’t look like an overwhelming favorite yet after an uncharacteristically sluggish January.
With the trade deadline behind us, rosters around the NBA are now fortified for the stretch run. Which teams can actually win the championship? Here’s our list of true contenders this season, with a brief note on three teams who just missed the cut.
6. Memphis Grizzlies
Why they can win the championship: Two-way balance
Memphis is currently the No. 2 seed in the West at 36-17 overall. They’re one of three teams in the NBA that’s top-7 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, along with the Thunder and Celtics. The Grizzlies have been awesome this season despite not getting a great year from Ja Morant, whose numbers haven taken a downturn while he’s been in-and-out of the lineup with injuries. So how have the Grizzlies been so good? Jaren Jackson Jr. is playing at an All-NBA level, Desmond Bane is turning in another excellent season as a secondary shot-creator and shooter, and the organization keeps developing young talent. Santi Aldama has had a breakout year to give the team another skilled 7-footer in the front court, Jaylen Wells is looking like the Rookie of the Year as a talented wing stopper only two years removed from playing DII college ball, and fellow rookie Zach Edey has given Memphis a powerful inside scoring punch when he’s on the floor. The Grizzlies have been catching opponents off guard by playing at the fastest pace in the league this season, and if Morant can return to his superstar form for the stretch run, there’s a chance Memphis can make a deep postseason push.
Why they’ll fall short: Halfcourt shot creation
The game slows down in the playoffs, which could be an issue for a Memphis team playing at the league’s No. 1 pace this year. The Grizzlies’ halfcourt offense has been nothing special, ranking only No. 13 in halfcourt points per possession this season, per Cleaning the Glass. Morant roaring back to life would help fix that issue, but Memphis still needs to prove it can score against a good defense without turning the ball over (they rank No. 25 in the NBA in turnover rate). The Grizzlies reportedly kicked the tires on Jimmy Butler and Kevin Durant at the trade deadline, a sign that even the front office thought they needed more help this year. Trading Jake LaRavia and Marcus Smart also makes the rotation weaker for the benefit of future financial flexibility (ideally meaning a rich new extension for JJJ). I trust the Grizzlies more than the Lakers, Warriors, and Mavericks at this point, but actually winning it all is going to require a lot of things to go right during the playoffs.
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5. New York Knicks
Why they can win the championship: Elite offense
The Knicks decided to follow the Celtics lead on a five-out spacing look when they pulled off a massive trade for Karl-Anthony Towns just before the season. New York’s offense was already very good last season without a stretch five (ranking No. 7 in the NBA), but Towns’ addition has elevated the Knicks to the No. 2 offense in the league. New York can score in bunches despite not taking a ton of three-pointers (they rank No. 27 in three-point rate). Instead, Towns’ presence has opened up driving lanes for himself and his teammates, and New York has scored at a brutally efficient rate from two-point range (56.8 percent) all season. The Knicks have great top-end talent with two All-Star starters in Towns and Jalen Brunson, and two elite three-and-D wings in Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby. Josh Hart is the perfect glue guy to fill out lineups, and Mitchell Robinson is on his way back to fortify the front court. If the Knicks go on a run to the championship, it would require their offense to go bananas, because the defense just isn’t that good. It feels like the Knicks are probably one more solid offseason away from true contender status, but they could be there this year with some sustained hot shooting and/or a lucky break along the way in the playoffs.
Why they’ll fall short: Defense and depth
The Knicks have had two big questions ever since they made the Towns trade, and neither of them have been answered yet during an otherwise successful season. Can the Knicks build a championship-level defense with Towns at center? KAT is not exactly an intimidating rim protector, and he’s going to be tested constantly on New York’s playoff run. Having another weak defender in the lineup in Brunson gives opponents multiple players to target. The other issue for New York is their depth. The Knicks have six guys you trust in a playoff series right now, and Robinson coming back would give them seven. Cam Payne has been pretty good as another bench option thus far, but the playoffs are a different beast. The Knicks starters are already playing huge minutes: Bridges leads the league in minutes per game, Hart is No. 3, and Anunoby is No. 10. Brunson and KAT both rank in the top-25 of minutes per game as well. The Knicks broke down in the playoffs last year. Will head coach Tom Thibodeau take his foot off the gas, or continue treating every game like a Game 7? Until the defense and depth are addressed, the Knicks still feel like an outside contender for the title.
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4. Denver Nuggets
Why they can win the championship: They have the best player in the world
Nikola Jokic was already a top-15 player in NBA history before turning in the greatest season of his career this year. As the Nuggets have drained talent around him, Jokic has had to step up his game offensively, and the result is one of the wildest seasons the league has ever seen. Jokic is third in the NBA in scoring (29.8 points per game), second in assists (10.3 per game), and fourth in rebounds (12.5 per game) while shooting 45.8 percent from three-point range, a top-5 mark in the league. With Jokic on the floor, the Nuggets out-score teams by 12.7 points per 100 possessions. Denver is -7.3 in that stat without him on the floor. The Nuggets will have the best player in any series, and that’s a good enough reason to think they can win the championship.
Why they’ll fall short: Lack of shooting and Two Timelines trepidation
The Nuggets have been trying to thread the needle on a two-timelines plan around Jokic by developing their young players while also competing for a championship. Everyone knows how that worked out for the Golden State Warriors, and the Nuggets could find themselves in a similar perilous position if the young guns don’t step up on this playoff run. The big hole in Denver’s statistical profile is shooting volume: the Nuggets rank dead-last in three-point rate, putting them at risk of losing the math game in any postseason matchup. Of the young guys, Christian Braun and Peyton Watson are both looking like league-average three-point shooters, but neither of them are very willing to fire from deep. Julian Strawther is their best young shooter, but his shot hasn’t been quite as elite as it looked coming out of Gonzaga. Then there’s the Russell Westbrook component: the veteran has been a star in his role so far this season, but you can bet defenses will sag way off him in the playoffs and dare him to shoot. Denver being able to survive the handful of minutes Jokic rests would be a great sign for their title hopes, but that would require Jamal Murray rediscovering his playoff stardom, and the young guns developing fast.
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3. Cleveland Cavaliers
Why they can win the championship: Elite offense and good enough defense
The Cavaliers exploded onto the scene as a championship contender with a 15-0 start. Cleveland has kept it rolling all year thanks to the league’s best offense, which splashes shots all over the floor, avoids turnovers, and just made a key pickup at the trade deadline. The Cavs lead the NBA in two-point field goal percentage (58.4 percent) and three-point field goal percentage (39.5 percent), and have the third lowest turnover rate in the league. Cleveland has two elite shot-creators in the backcourt in Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, which isn’t something many (any?) other teams can boast. Evan Mobley has taken an All-Star leap this season, and he’s figured out his pairing with Jarrett Allen inside. Getting De’Andre Hunter as a big wing should help in a theoretical Eastern Conference Finals meeting with the Celtics. The Cavs defense is way better than the NBA’s other elite offensive team in the Knicks. There’s nothing flukey about their season so far … as long as the shots keep falling.
Why they’ll fall short: A small backcourt and shooting variance
NBA teams aren’t supposed to win championships with two small guards, an idea the Cavs will test this season. Garland and Mitchell are both All-Star performers, but they are going to have a target on their chest defensively against bigger teams like Boston come playoff time. Teams have been shooting well against the Cavs from three-point range all year, and Garland and Mitchell just don’t have the length to really contest shooters from deep. The Cavs have enough length around the diminutive pairing that they should be able to survive if the offense remains elite. That can be its own challenge in the playoffs. Last year, the Thunder led the league in three-point field goal percentage in the regular season at 38.9 percent. When the playoffs rolled around, OKC shot just 35.6 percent from deep, and were eliminated in the round two by the Mavs. Cleveland’s case for beating Boston and Oklahoma City (or anyone else in their way) starts with their ability to generate efficient offense at an elite level, and that’s no sure bet when the game gets slower and more physical in the postseason.
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2. Boston Celtics
Why they can win the championship: Three-point blitzkriegs with tough perimeter defense
The Celtics still have every mark of a championship contender despite showing some signs of weaknesses during a 10-6 run over January. Boston is top-5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and third overall in net-rating by outscoring teams by more than nine points per 100 possessions. The Celtics’ offense is elite at two things: manufacturing quality three-point looks and avoiding turnovers. Boston takes 53.3 percent of its field goals from three-point range, highest in the league, and it has made nearly 100 more than threes than the No. 2 Chicago Bulls. It’s remarkable Boston only has a 10.5 percent turnover rate as a team. The Celtics defense is again excellent, with four tough on-ball defenders in front of Kristaps Porzingis, one of the league’s better shot-blockers. Boston has a way of blowing teams out by stringing together multiple stops and ripping threes on the other end. The Celtics have made 20 or more threes in 17 games, and have a 16-1 record when it happens. It’s so hard to go back-to-back in today’s NBA, but the Celtics are absolutely good enough to do it.
Why they’ll fall short: Offensive cold spells
The Celtics offense can go cold when the threes aren’t falling. Since Jan. 1, Boston’s offense only ranks No. 9 in efficiency and No. 12 in true shooting percentage. The Celtics can get a little too willing to shoot pull-up threes: they have taken nearly 120 more pull-up threes than the next highest team, and only shoot 33.9 percent (ninth best in the league) on those attempts. The pull-ups come at the cost of attacking the basket. Boston is only No. 28 in rim frequency and free throw rate. Of course, Boston didn’t attack the rim much more last year, though their rim frequency has fallen from 29.1 percent to 26.6 percent. The defense has mostly been consistently great so it feels silly to second-guess them, but Al Horford holding up for one more playoff run remains paramount. It feels like a powerful big man could give the Celtics trouble, but unless Evan Mobley enters the playoffs looking like 2002 Barry Bonds, it feels like only Giannis Antetokounmpo matches that description. The Celtics felt overwhelming last season. They do not feel that way this year, but they’re still among the championship front-runner any way you slice it.
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1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Why they can win the championship: Historic defense and an MVP caliber closer
The Thunder currently have the highest net-rating in NBA history at +13.5, better than MJ’s 72-win Bulls and Curry’s 73-win Warriors. Oklahoma City has far-and-away the best defense in the NBA, allowing the lowest defensive rating since the 2019-2020 Milwaukee Bucks as offensive efficiency continues to soar around the league. The Thunder are wildly good at forcing turnovers on defense and turning it into a quick two points on offense. They have forced 949 turnovers this year while turning it over only 622 times themselves (second fewest in the league). The Thunder also have the best guard in the world in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the possible NBA MVP who slices and dices defenses with an absurd combination of creativity, flexibility, and shot-making. The Thunder have been the best team in the league so far without ever really being at full strength. Chet Holmgren is just coming back from a hip injury now, and he was playing at an All-NBA level before he got hurt. Isaiah Hartenstein is just a brilliant fit for this roster, and the potential two big pairing with Holmgren is fascinating. The Thunder also have another All-Star in wing Jalen Williams, and an awesome bench led by Aaron Wiggins and Cason Wallace. This team is absurdly loaded.
Why they’ll fall short: Lack of a star secondary creator and cold shooting
We know the Thunder can be upset in the playoffs because it happened last year. Luka Doncic’s Dallas Mavericks (/sheds a single tear) knocked off top-seeded OKC in the second round a year ago when the Thunder’s shooters went a little cold from three and P.J. Washington shot way over his head. This year’s Thunder team is better, but they still need to prove themselves on the biggest stages against the toughest matchups. If an opponent can limit Gilgeous-Alexander, do the Thunder have another player who can reliably create offense with the ball in his hands? That job will fall to Williams, who has been very good this year but isn’t attacking the rim nearly as often as he did earlier in his career. Holmgren can also handle some shot creation duty, but that’s a lot to put on his plate when he also has to captain the defense. There’s also the chance that the shooters just don’t hit shots: the Thunder are only No. 16 in three-point percentage this year by making 36 percent of their threes. It was surprising that OKC didn’t trade a couple of its thousands of future draft picks for someone like Cam Johnson or Coby White. This still looks like the best team in the league, but going conservative at the trade deadline could come back to haunt them.
