Jeremy Reper-USA TODAY Sports
Here are a few teams who can crash college football’s biggest parties this year.
The college football parties used to be only for the elites. The Alabama’s, Ohio State’s and Georgia’s of the world mingle together in their exclusive four-team party that would crown what they would call a true champion.
However, with the recent success of teams like Cincinnati, who became the first Group of Five (G5) team to make the College Football Playoff in 2021, combined with Tulane’s shocking upset of USC in the Cotton Bowl last year, the G5 teams are aiming to crash the party more often. With this being the last year before the College Football Playoff expands, here are a few teams that can play spoilers — or even make a Cinderella run into the final bracket.
The most likely candidates
UTSA
The Roadrunners have long been the darling of college football Twitter, but make no mistake: this is a very, very good team. Despite losing star wide receiver Zakhari Franklin to Ole Miss, the Roadrunners return nine starters on offense, including QB Frank Harris and an experienced offensive line. Losing Franklin hurts, but returning veteran WRs De’Corian Clark and Joshua Cephus eases that a bit. Offensive coordinator Will Stein is now at Oregon, but hiring Justin Burke internally means the offense will remain the same.
What separates the Roadrunners, however, is that their defense should be excellent this year. Rashad Wisdom headlines an experienced, tough secondary with the ability to take over games, and OLB Trey Moore had 17 tackles for loss last year in a C-USA Freshman All American year.
They move up to the American Athletic Conference this year, but can win that conference in year one. They play Tulane in the last game of the season, which could have massive NY6 potential, but in September, the Roadrunners go to Neyland Stadium to take on the Tennessee Volunteers. Keep an eye on that one.
Photo by Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Troy
The first thing that stood out about Troy last year was their defense, which was phenomenal. The Trojans had the 12th lowest EPA/pass attempt in the nation last year en route to a conference championship and a win over UTSA in the Cure Bowl. Former defensive coordinator Shiel Wood was hired away by Tulane, but in steps Greg Gasparato, who coached safeties and outside linebackers for the Cardinals. Their DB group is also extremely experienced, and in front of them, DL TJ Jackson and Richard Jibunor were preseason All-Conference selections.
Offensively, there are more questions than answers for a group that was simply just average last year, but QB Gunnar Watson returns and the Trojans transfer in two offensive linemen that should shore up the problems they had running the ball (ninth in EPA/attempt in the Sun Belt). Jon Sumrall is a fantastic coach, and will have the Trojans prepared for this season. They go on the road to Kansas State week two, which should be a fun one.
Next up
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South Alabama
South Alabama has a very talented team. Led by head coach Kane Wommack, the Jaguars return 18 starters on both sides of the ball. In year two under offensive coordinator Major Applewhite, the offense should be even better than last year. With a senior-laden group led by RB La’Damian Webb, the offense will be an ascending one. Defensively, they bring back talented players such as DB Yam Banks and 2022 team sack leader Jamie Sheriff, and should be an easy pick as a CFB party crasher.
However, their schedule is REALLY tough. They open the season at Tulane, have to go to Stillwater to take on Oklahoma State, and they’re in the same Sun Belt division as Troy, so they’ll have to go through them in order to make it to the conference championship game. It’s still possible to make that run to crash the party, but they might not be the favorites.
Photo by Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Boise State
Boise State is by far and away the best team in the Mountain West. With Fresno State losing QB Jake Haener, the Broncos could take this chance to put a lock on the conference. Taylen Green played well towards the back end of his freshman season, and despite rocky completion percentage numbers, finished third in the conference in Positive Play Rate and first in Boom Rate (A play that results in an EPA over 1, which is very good). George Holani pairs with Green in the backfield. The midseason Dirk Koetter offense improved the entire team last year, but now with Bush Hamdan as the playcaller, it’ll be interesting to see how the offense changes (it shouldn’t because the Boise/Koetter offense rocked).
However, the team has to replace six starters on a good defense from last season. DJ Schramm is a preseason All-American, but that’s a lot of production they have to replace. In addition, the Broncos have to play Washington, UCF and Memphis in the first month of the season, which puts them kind of in the same place as South Alabama. The only problem there is: the Mountain West outside of the Broncos might not be that good. So for them to be party crashers, they have to play well in those early games and get in the good graces of the playoff committee.
James Madison
James Madison didn’t do much last season. Oh, outside of immediately jumping from the FCS to the Sun Belt and wrecking shop en route to a second place finish in the conference and at one point being ranked. What can they do for an encore? Well, they’re still not eligible for a bowl game this year so who knows about crashing the party, but they can crash the bowl game in our hearts. Most of the defense returns from a very strong unit last year, and most of their tougher games are early in the season (@ Virginia, @ Troy).
Their big question is how to replace QB Todd Centeio. Transferring in QBs Jordan McCloud and Brett Griffis could help, but they’re also transferring in a few new receivers as well. The Dukes feel like a boom or bust team this year, and while they might not be able to physically crash the party, I’ll acknowledge them.
We have to talk about them so let’s get it out the way
Liberty
(/sigh) So Liberty is in the Conference-USA now, and they’re probably going to win the conference year one. Hugh Freeze is now at Auburn, but they simply replaced him with Jamey Chadwell, former Coastal Carolina head coach. He brought with him Willy Korn, who’s pistol triple option offense is objectively awesome.
Liberty also brought in a TON of transfers. Led by RB Victor Venn and OL Xavior Gray, the offense should receive a boost from these guys coming in.
Also…C-USA is kinda bad. Outside of the Flames, Louisiana Tech is the only team in the conference in the top 90 of SP+. That’s pretty bad, but good for Liberty.
Alright moving on.
Sleepers to keep an eye on
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Memphis
The Tigers are in a weird spot this year. Sure they can win the conference, but with Tulane, UTSA and even SMU out ahead of them it could be an uphill climb. One thing that the Tigers do well is offense, though. QB Seth Henigan returns after leading an offense that finished fourth in the conference in points per game and passing offense. Lots of transfers come in at receiver, but if offensive coordinator Tim Cramsey can improve the rushing offense in his second year, they should be able to keep that up.
The defense…let’s talk about the defense.
It was about middle of the pack in everything. Fourth in points allowed per game, fifth in plays of 10+ yards allowed per game. First in interceptions, but they transfer in a lot of guys. In the AAC, where everyone can score points, you need to be able to get stops, and Memphis might not be able to do that yet. That’ll be what makes or breaks this season for the Tigers.
Photo by David K Purdy/Getty Images
Ohio
MACtion, stand up! The Ohio Bobcats are the best team in the MAC, but because they’re in the MAC, it puts them in the sleepers to crash the party. But make no mistake, this team is #good.
It all starts on offense with QB Kurtis Rourke. Among all QBs in the country who threw the ball at least 300 times, Rourke was first in Boom rate, second in Positive Play rate and 10th in total EPA. Combine that with 25 passing TDs in 11 games, and you have a guy who can lead a team in the MAC to a dominant season. He is coming off an ACL injury, but having surgery before the end of the season sped up his recovery timeline. They also return almost everyone on offense and defense. The defense played well down the back stretch of the season, and if they can carry that over, watch out.
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