8 NBA Playoffs overreactions from start of every first round series

Photo by Loren Elliott/Getty Images

Let’s overreact to the start of every series in the 2023 NBA Playoffs.

NBA Playoffs series are not strictly determined by the first game, but teams that win Game 1 historically have a huge edge in advancing. In 2018, the NBA put out data that said teams that win the first game of a best-of-seven series win the series 76.6 percent of the time. In the first round, teams that win Game 1 win the series 79.7 percent of the time, according to Land of Basketball.

Every series in the 2023 NBA Playoffs is now underway, and we’ve already seen some big surprises. The No. 6 seed Golden State Warriors were favored to beat the No. 3 seed Sacramento Kings in their first round series, but it was the Kings who took home a W in Game 1. The Phoenix Suns have been among the biggest favorites to win the West, but they dropped Game 1 to a Los Angeles Clippers team playing without Paul George. The No. 7 seed Lakers also took Game 1 from the No. 2 seed Memphis Grizzlies after Ja Morant’s scary wrist injury, while the No. 8 seed Miami Heat pulled off the upset over the No. 1 seed Milwaukee Bucks after Giannis Antetokounmpo’s back injury.

We knew these playoffs were going to be wide open, but the Game 1 results were still shocking to see. Here’s our biggest overreactions after watching the first game of every playoff series.

The Bucks are in serious trouble

After losing Game 1 to Miami, the natural reaction might be to say that this was just a blip on the radar. However, there are a few reasons why this Bucks team could be in very deep trouble. NBA insider Shams Charania reports that Bucks’ star forward Giannis Antetokounmpo could be available for Wednesday’s game, but if he’s at anything less than 100%, it could mean trouble for the Bucks.

In addition, the Heat might be finding their stroke from deep. All season, the main theme was how the Heat offense has taken a step back, especially when shooting from deep. Against Milwaukee in Game 1, they shot 60% from deep and from the field. Of course, Giannis changes the math on the shooting from the field, but if the Heat continue to shoot like that from deep, it changes the math on everything.

Plus, this is Miami we’re talking about. They always are going to be a tough out, regardless of how they played in the regular season. If Giannis isn’t 100%, this serious could go a lot longer than the Bucks wanted. —J.P. Acosta

The Celtics got their wake-up call early, and that should terrify the East

An easy overreaction from Game 1 of the Celtics-Hawks series is that Boston is going to roll to an easy series win. The Celtics’ 112-99 win on Saturday might naturally lead one to that conclusion. However, the real takeaway is this: Boston is just getting started.

Head coach Joe Mazzulla found a lot of flaws in the second-half, after the Celtics built an impressive 30-point lead at halftime, the franchise’s biggest first-half lead in the postseason since the 1985 NBA Finals. After shooting 60% in the first half, Boston shot 34.9% during the second half, and the Celtics were outrebounded by Atlanta over the final two quarters as well, 27 to 26.

Boston still held on for the win, but Mazzulla sees room for improvement: “ I just thought we lost our offensive purpose,” Mazzulla said of the second half. “Playing passive offense instead of just keeping it moving, being aggressive and maintaining that level of pace that we had in the first half.”

“It’s the playoffs,” Jayson Tatum said following the win. “They’re a good team. We expect them to go on runs. A lot of it was self-inflicted: turnovers and missed layups and things like that. But we responded and obviously there’s a lot of things that we can learn from and I’m sure the Hawks feel the same way. So it’s all about adjustments and learning from Game 1. There’s a lot of games left.”

If a team shoots 35% in the second half, gets outrebounded, and “holds on” for a 29-point win? That’s a good sign. So too is the idea that the Celtics got their “wake up call” early, in a blowout win.

That should terrify the rest of the Eastern Conference. — Mark Schofield

I just hope the Nets have a good time

This one time in 2009 I decided to enter a Street Fighter IV tournament for fun. I had no business entering a 128-player tournament, but found myself randomly winning with El Fuerte and made it all the way to the semi-finals. Then I got dumpstered by someone who knew what they were doing.

The Nets are the plucky underdogs now, who seriously don’t belong in the NBA Playoffs. Let’s just be real. This team was 32-20 before trading Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant. They then went 13-17 to close out the year and coasted to the 6th seed because of the results they had early on. Hell, the Charlotte Hornets went 12-15 over the same stretch.

I know this is supposed to be overreactions, but it doesn’t feel like one. The Nets don’t stand a damn chance against the 76ers. Look at both their rosters, go on, open a tab a do a quick search. On the one hand you have Joel Embiid, James Harden and Tobias Harris. On the other you’ve got an island of misfit toys with one of the Nets’ best-known players now having the nickname “Dinshittie.”

The Sixers didn’t even play very well in game one, and still destroyed Brooklyn by 20 points. If Embiid and Harden have closer to their signature games they might blow out the Nets by 40.

Sixers in 3. The Nets cry and don’t turn up to Game 4. — James Dator

In a wing-driven league, the Cleveland Cavaliers do not have any

After a very competitive 101-97 loss, there probably shouldn’t be that many overreactions about the Cavaliers chances in this series right? They got destroyed on the glass 51-38 despite Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen grabbing 11 and 14 rebounds, respectively. Mobley was 4/13 from the field and Darius Garland had 1 assist to go along with 5 turnovers, but neither of those things will probably happen again.

So why do I think the Cavs are finished after one game? Well, it’s because the issue that they’ve had all regular season has become magnified in the postseason. This team, for all the talent that Mitchell, Garland, Mobley and Allen possess, have absolutely nothing on the wing that can help them win this series.

The New York Knicks completely ignored Isaac Okoro defensively and begged him to shoot the basketball. Dean Wade was a -14 in SEVEN MINUTES in a game they lost by four points. Caris LeVert was 1-7 and also a -14 in his 18 minutes. The Cavs may be forced to play Lamar Stevens the rest of the series because they simply do not have any other choice.

It’s only the first game, and a win in Game 2 will probably make me forget about all of this, but if the Cavs lose this series we’re going to spend all offseason discussing who do they need to trade between Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen to get a wing (looking at you, Brandon Ingram) that can actually help them win basketball games in the Spring and Summer. — Jacolby Hart

The Nuggets’ second-half ‘swoon’ was nothing to worry about

No one really believed in the Denver Nuggets entering the NBA Playoffs. Despite being the No. 1 seed in the West, Denver only had the third best odds to reach the NBA Finals in their own conference, behind the No. 4 seed Suns and the No. 6 seed Warriors. Part of that was because the Nuggets had early playoff exits the last two years (in fairness, their second best player Jamal Murray was injured both times). Part of it may have also been because the team went 12-11 after the All-Star break this year.

If the Nuggets’ Game 1 victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves was any indication, Denver was simply saving their legs for playoff time at the end of the regular season. The Nuggets beat the Wolves, 109-80, in a statement win to start their postseason run.

The Nuggets’ defense, which was their biggest concern entering the playoffs after finishing only No. 15 in the regular season, looked dominant against the Wolves. Nikola Jokic controlled the game as a playmaker and rebounder even when it wasn’t his best night scoring the ball. Murray looked electric with 24 points, but it was a balanced scoring effort from the entire rotation: six Denver players scored at least 13 points in the win.

The Nuggets are going to be just fine. As I wrote in our ranking post (where I had Denver at No. 2 but the group placed them as the fifth most likely team to win the title), doubt the Nuggets at your own peril. — Ricky O’Donnell

The Grizzlies’ injuries may be too much to bear

The Grizzlies were already banged up even before they started their run in the 2023 NBA Playoffs. Memphis entered the postseason without injured starting center Steven Adams, and knew they would be missing key reserve Brandon Clarke for the rest of the season because of an Achilles tear.

Memphis’ injury issues got even worse in Game 1 when superstar guard Ja Morant went down with a wrist injury. He didn’t sound like he was in good spirits after the game:

The Lakers took a 1-0 series lead with Morant out for the final six minutes. A No. 7 seed like the Lakers is not supposed to beat a No. 2 seed like Memphis, but this doesn’t feel like a typical 2-7 matchup. For one, LA reloaded its roster midseason with a fantastic trade deadline that jettisoned Russell Westbrook and restocked the roster with capable role players around LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The Grizzlies also aren’t the Grizzlies without Adams’ incredible offensive rebounding, Clarke’s athletic defensive playmaking, and of course Morant’s supernova offensive ability.

Here’s hoping Morant gets healthy quickly and doesn’t miss a beat. Turn off injuries. — Ricky O’Donnell

The Kings’ offense will translate to playoff basketball

The most efficient offense in NBA history belongs to … the 2022-2023 Sacramento Kings. The Kings’ 119.4 offensive rating is the highest in league history, and helped end Sacramento’s 16-year playoff drought this season, which was the longest across the four major professional sports. Sacramento put up so many points because of both space and pace: lead guard De’Aaron Fox might be the league’s speediest ball handler, and Sacramento surrounded him with shooters to finish No. 5 in the league in three-point rate.

There was some reason to believe the Kings’ offense wouldn’t be as potent in the playoffs. Historically, the game slows down in the postseason, and easy transition buckets are harder to come by. Throw in a first round series with the defending champion Warriors, and most people expected the Kings’ playoff breakthrough to be short lived.

Instead, Sacramento blitzed the Warriors for a 126-123 win in Game 1. Fox had 38 points and thrived in crunch-time, as he has all year. Malik Monk added 32 points off the bench, including going 14-of-14 from the foul line. Meanwhile, Kevin Huerter and Keegan Murray went a combined 0-for-8 from three when they have been the team’s two most consistent shooters all year.

Sacramento is going to put up points. If the Warriors want to win the series, they will need their offense to step up even more than their defense. The Kings’ defense is their big point of concern — especially their rim protection. Well, the Warriors bombed 50 threes in Game 1 and rarely attacked the paint.

Defense might win championships, but historically great offense beats great defense in the NBA. The Kings’ offense-first attack is going to be just fine. — Ricky O’Donnell

The Suns’ lack of continuity shouldn’t be discounted

The Suns were the betting favorites in the Western Conference entering the NBA Playoffs despite the fact that the team had barely played together. Since swinging a massive deal for Kevin Durant at the trade deadline, Phoenix has only played eight games with KD because of injuries. Yes, Phoenix went unbeaten in that stretch, but it was mostly against uninspiring competition.

Championship teams usually aren’t still searching for their identity when the playoffs start, but that’s exactly what Phoenix is doing. The Suns’ talent is overwhelming on paper, but finding cohesion remains a work in progress. The Clippers beat the Suns, 115-110, to open the series on Sunday despite LA star Paul George being ruled out for the series with injury.

Durant had 27 points but only took 15 shots — the fifth most on the team. Phoenix is still figuring out how to get him shots in the flow of the offense on a team with two other stars in Devin Booker and Chris Paul who also want to play with the ball in their hands. Phoenix’s depth looked good in Game 1 because of a great outing by Torrey Craig, but that’s still a concern moving forward. Ayton’s inability to rebound at a high level, and out-play Clippers center Ivica Zubac, is also a concern.

Championship teams in the NBA are usually formed by going through the trials and tribulations of the regular season. The Suns didn’t get that chance because they traded for Durant so late in the season, and then had to deal with him being in and out of the lineup with injuries. It’s not panic time for the Suns yet, but this series was never supposed to be this hard. — Ricky O’Donnell