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Let’s make some NFL free agency predictions on the Eagles, Patriots, Falcons, Packers, Vikings, and more.
It’s already shaping up to be a wild free agency period in 2024. Russell Wilson is being released, Kirk Cousins could find a new home — and that’s before we layer on the cuts the Bills had to make to get under the cap, as well as some of the league’s best running backs all being on the market at the same time.
This isn’t a year with stars at every single position, but the free agency class is deep and has a lot of players who can step in and help a team get over the hump, or return to the playoffs. When it comes to the biggest names in 2024 free agency here are the guys we’re watching, and where we think they’ll end up when the dust settles.
Kirk Cousins to the Atlanta Falcons
As we wrote a few days ago, the list of suitors for quarterback Kirk Cousins could be long, given the number of quarterback-needy teams this NFL offseason. But the winds certainly seem to be blowing in this direction.
Not only do the Atlanta Falcons have the cap space necessary to facilitate a Cousins deal — Atlanta has around $37 million available according to Over the Cap and could create more space if needed with some restructures — but there are other reasons this pairing works. Cousins would be a fit for the offense we expect to see new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson install, and the QB has family ties to the area, as his wife Julie grew up in Alpharetta, where his in-laws still reside.
Russell Wilson to the Las Vegas Raiders
The Las Vegas Raiders are in a fascinating position this offseason when it comes to the quarterback position. Sitting with the 13th pick in the first round, they are likely out of range for one of the top prospects, absent a big trade up or one of them falling down the board. They have the kind of cap space to sign a QB like Cousins, but with the Raiders coming off an 8-9 season — and facing the prospects of playing against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs twice a season — Las Vegas might not be a preferred destination.
But the Raiders need to address the position, and that is where Russell Wilson comes in. Thanks to offset language in his contract, Wilson can sign with another team for the veteran minimum, and the Denver Broncos will be on the hook for the difference between that contract, and the $39 million guaranteed by the Broncos.
So Wilson could sign with the Raiders for $915,000 this season, put Denver on the hook for the rest, and enable the Raiders to use the rest of their cap space to address needs around the QB position.
Seems like a win-win for Wilson and the Raiders, and the QB is reportedly being advised to sign with Las Vegas.
But apparently the Steelers might have something to say about this.
Saquon Barkley to the Houston Texans
Last year the Houston Texans made a surprising run to the AFC South title, and a win in the Wild Card round. Now Houston has a chance to take some big swings in free agency, and the lure of playing for DeMeco Ryans and alongside C.J. Stroud is likely to be strong.
Plus, the Texans have around $70 million available according to Over the Cap, which allows for some big swings.
One such swing? Saquon Barkley. With Devin Singletary set to hit free agency, adding Barkley to their offense would give Stroud another weapon in the passing game — given Barkley’s ability out of the backfield — as well as adding some juice to their rushing attack.
Christian Wilkins to the New England Patriots
With both Tom Brady and Bill Belichick now gone, perhaps playing in New England is not the draw it used to be.
But the Patriots have a ton of cap space at their disposal. While that might mean paying a bit more in free agency than in year’s past, something Eliot Wolf addressed during the NFL Scouting Combine, there are some players worth that price.
Such as defensive lineman Christian Wilkins.
The free agent had 9 sacks, 35 pressures, and 68 tackles in Miami last year with the Dolphins, and adding him to the interior of their defensive line would give New England quite the one-two punch up front, given the presence of Christian Barmore. That would be something that new head coach Jerod Mayo, a former linebacker, would love to build a defense around.
Justin Simmons to the Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers are very thin at safety right now.
Thankfully, a tremendous option for them just became available.
The fallout from the Russell Wilson contract in Denver is upon us, and one of the tough moves the team has made is releasing veteran safety Justin Simmons. While Simmons is a few seasons removed from consideration as the best safety in the game, he is still a very good player, and might be an ideal fit under new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, whose Boston College team last year employed a ton of single-high coverages. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Eagles saw 185 passing attempts while they were in single-high (Cover 1 or Cover 3), opposed to the 48 attempts when their defense was in a split-safety coverage (Cover 2, Cover 2 Man, Quarters, and Quarter-Quarter-Half).
Danielle Hunter to the Minnesota Vikings
If we’re imagining a world where Kirk Cousins goes to Atlanta (and we are), then the Vikings will run to re-sign Danielle Hunter. The Vikings most important pass rusher, Hunter exploded in 2023 for a career-high 16.5 sacks. Thriving in Brian Flores’ creative defense, Hunter was able to move around the field and plug into a variety of positions where he could use his blend of speed and power off the edge to win.
One could make a convincing argument that long-term getting back Hunter is more critical to the Vikings’ chances than retaining Cousins, and it’s for this reason we predict he’ll be back in purple if the team can make their salary cap situation work.
Mitch Morse to the Philadelphia Eagles
There is no replacing Jason Kelce, but the Eagles have to try. Morse, the starting center for Buffalo, was cut on Wednesday as part of a brutal reduction in the team’s salary cap.
As it stands the Eagles have Cam Jurgens to plug into center, and he was always part of the plan. That said, rotating him out of guard is easier said than done. Offensive line continuity has been of such tremendous importance for the Eagles that getting a veteran like Morse into the center spot, and kicking Jurgens back out to guard makes too much sense.
Now you just need to teach the new guy how to Tush Push.
Stephon Gilmore to the Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions are in the midst of a true Super Bowl window, after advancing to the NFC Championship Game a season ago. They added Cameron Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley during free agency a year ago, but Sutton struggled last year and Moseley missed a great deal of time due to injuries.
Given the financial position in Dallas, it is unlikely that Gilmore returns to the Cowboys absent a substantial pay cut. As a result, finding a new home in Detroit seems a likely option.
Geno Stone to the Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks have made a number of moves already to get into better financial shape. Among those moves? Moving on from safeties Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs.
That pushes safety up the list of needs in Seattle. Given the questions about the incoming rookie class at the safety spot — our own JP Acosta does not have a safety in his top-50 players — addressing the position in free agency makes a ton of sense.
So how about a reunion between Geno Stone and his former defensive coordinator, who just happens to be the new head coach in Seattle?
