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Let’s rank the championship picture in the NBA ahead of the stretch run.
The 2023-2024 NBA season is 70 percent in the books. While parity has been a defining theme of this season, at this point the championship picture is fully starting to crystalize.
The Boston Celtics are currently the only team in the league on pace to win 60+ games. The West has been totally wide open all year, and at the moment has its top four teams separated by fewer than three games in the standings. The second tier of the West is formidable, too, with MVP candidate Luka Doncic leading a reloaded Dallas Mavericks team, and the Phoenix Suns’ superstar trio potentially forming a sleeping giant if they can somehow get and stay healthy.
The East is less defined behind Boston. The Cavs have been the biggest surprise of the season, riding a massive winning streak while Darius Garland and Evan Mobley were out with injuries to move into the No. 2 seed. The Bucks have arguably the best top-end talent in the league, but their defense has been a disaster all season, and Damian Lillard isn’t playing at his peak level. The Philadelphia 76ers looked like a potential title contender until Joel Embiid went down with a torn meniscus. Embiid could be back for the playoffs, but Philly will have to fight just to stay out of the play-in tournament.
With the stretch run of the regular season approaching, we thought it would be a good time to take stock in the 2024 NBA championship picture. These are the the teams that are credible threats to win the title.
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6. Minnesota Timberwolves
Why they can win the championship: Size and defense
The Wolves feel like the biggest team in the league. Rudy Gobert brings a 7’9 wingspan to the middle, Karl-Anthony Towns is a true 7-footer at the four, and Jaden McDaniels is a rangey 6’11 forward playing the three. It’s no surprise the Wolves are the No. 1 defense in the league, a spot they’ve held down basically all year. A series against Minnesota is going to be a grind: they’re going to protect the rim at an elite level, contest three-pointers on the perimeter (opposing teams have the fourth lowest three-point percentage against the Wolves in the league), and handle their business on the defensive glass. The Wolves gave the Nuggets some problems in the first round last year on their run to the championship, and this year’s team is a lot better with Gobert and McDaniels healthy. The Wolves’ vision of the Gobert trade is fully playing out this season.
Why they’ll fall short: Crunch time scoring
The Wolves have been an elite team all season despite blowing so many games in crunch-time. Minnesota currently is No. 27 in net-rating in the league in the clutch. The biggest issue is turnovers: the team is No. 29 in the NBA with a 13.4 percent turnover rate this season. Edwards is still only 22 years old, and he’s going to have a heavy burden carrying Minnesota’s offense when it matters. It just feels like the Wolves don’t get anything easy when the game slows down, and that’s scary heading into the playoffs.
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5. Milwaukee Bucks
Why they can win the championship: Giannis Antetokounmpo
The Bucks have failed to reach their sky-high expectations so far this season for a variety of reasons, but it isn’t because of the play of their franchise player. Antetokounmpo remains very much in his prime at 29 years old. With two MVPs already on the mantle, he’s putting together a case that this is his best offensive season so far. Giannis has the highest true shooting percentage of his career (65.3 percent), he’s averaging his most-ever assists per 100 possessions (8.7), and he’s posting a career-best offensive rebound rate. Antetokounmpo has finally cut back on three-point attempts, and focused on what he does best: attack the rim. For my money, Giannis is the best player in the East, and his mere presence gives the Bucks a puncher’s chance to get their stuff together and go on a championship run.
Why they’ll fall short: Defense and depth
The story of the Bucks’ season has been their shaky perimeter defense and the fallout it caused. Head coach Adrian Griffin was fired and replaced with Doc Rivers. Rivers has seemingly improved the defense so far, but the Bucks aren’t winning yet because Damian Lillard is on an extended cold streak. The Bucks need Lillard to rediscover his best level to even have a chance. Even if he does, Milwaukee’s point of attack defense will be tested heavily in the playoffs. Geting Khris Middleton right is another huge key. Middleton seems to have fallen off a sizable amount since Milwaukee’s 2021 championship run. The 32-year-old has been in-and-out of the lineup all year with injuries. If Middleton can be the third scorer Milwaukee needs while also giving the team another solid defender, Milwaukee will be an extremely tough out in the East. Of course, those are a lot of ifs.
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4. Los Angeles Clippers
Why they can win the championship: Iso scoring
The Clippers are poised to be an extremely difficult matchup because they require an opponent to have a ton of high-level defenders on the perimeter. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George can cook off the dribble, or run around screens and hit threes. James Harden is still an elite playmaker who is always ready to rip a step-back three. Right now, the Clippers are No. 1 in isolation frequency, No. 1 in isolation points, and No. 2 in isolation points per possession. That style should work well when the game slows down in the playoffs. How many teams really have enough good defenders to slow down everything the Clippers can throw at you?
Why they’ll fall short: Injuries, rim pressure, lack of an elite big
It’s hard to trust the Clippers simply because they’re the Clippers. They’ve never been to the NBA Finals in franchise history. Their big addition is James Harden, the definitive playoff choker of his generation. Kawhi and PG seem to get hurt every year in the postseason like clockwork. Of course, it only takes one charmed playoff run to put all of those narratives to bed. Even if the Clippers stay healthy, it feels like an elite big could give them trouble. Ivica Zubac and Daniel Theis can give LA 48 minutes of very solid center play, but they aren’t at the same level as guys like Nikola Jokic, Anthony Davis, and Rudy Gobert in the West. The Clippers could also stand to be a little less jump shot reliant. Currently they are No. 22 in the league in rim frequency, per Cleaning the Glass.
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3. Oklahoma City Thunder
Why they can win the championship: Spacing
The young Thunder have arrived ahead of schedule with a leading MVP candidate powering their emergence into a real contender. The Thunder are so much more than just the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander show, though: with the league’s No. 3 offensive rating and No. 4 defensive rating, OKC looks like a dominant team on both ends of the floor. The debut of rookie big man Chet Holmgren has elevated this team. Holmgren is the first rookie in league history to make 100 three-pointers and block 100 shots in the same season. That’s allowed OKC to fully tap into five-out offensive lineups that give SGA an ocean of space to attack. When Gilgeous-Alexander kicks out, his teammates hit shots: the Thunder’s 39.8 percent mark from three-point range as a team is No. 1 in the NBA. The Thunder have the luxury of playing five-out without sacrificing rim protection, and they have arguably the best guard alive initiating everything in the halfcourt. OKC may be untested, but this team may already have a pathway to a championship.
Why they’ll fall short: Rebounding
The Thunder lack beef up front, and it shows mostly on the glass. OKC is No. 28 in the league in offensive rebound rate, and No. 29 in the league in defensive rebound rate. We’ve seen rebounding swing a playoff series so many times in recent years. How is OKC going to survive when teams are crashing the glass with a bigger front line in the playoffs? The Thunder will simply try to run on the other end and out-score teams (they’re No. 1 in the league in both transition frequency and transition points), but it’s a dicey proposition. I was surprised the Thunder didn’t try to add another big the trade deadline, but there’s no denying that their five-out style has been effective.
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Why they can win the championship: The most complete lineup in basketball
It’s remarkable that the Celtics keep finding ways to improve the team despite reaching at least the conference finals five times in the last seven years. This feels like the best Celtics team of the Jayson Tatum-Jaylen Brown era, and they’ve proved it by being the league’s only dominant team in the regular season. The offseason trade for Kristaps Porzingis was a masterstroke. Being able to add Jrue Holiday too was more luck than skill, but credit Boston for having enough assets to pounce when he became available. The end result is a team that checks every box: Boston is No. 1 in offensive efficiency, No. 3 in defensive efficiency, with shooting at every spot on the floor without sacrificing anything defensively. The Celtics have so many rugged point of attack defenders and dribble-drive creators. They rarely turn the ball over, and are top-five in both three-point and two-point shooting percentage. They have a legit rim protector. Boston has been the best team in the NBA all year; now they just need to prove it when it really matters.
Weakness: Lack of rim pressure, front court injuries, top-end talent
The Celtics take a ton of threes — 47.3 percent of their shots come from behind the arc, which is No. 1 in the NBA. Spamming three-pointers is a sustainable strategy for long-term success over the course of an 82-game regular season, but it also provides a lot of variance in a short series. The Celtics better stay hot from deep, because they don’t get to the rim all that often. Boston is No. 27 in the league in rim frequency, per Cleaning the Glass, and No. 20 in free throw rate. The Celtics will also have to keep Porzingis and Al Horford healthy throughout the playoffs. Porzingis has a long history of injury issues, and Boston isn’t the same team without him. Finally, Tatum needs to prove he can be the best player on a championship team. He isn’t quite at the level of Jokic, Stephen Curry, Giannis, or LeBron James — the leaders of the last four title teams. These Celtics aren’t exactly the 2004 Pistons, but it’s much of a group effort than a team led by a historically good player. Tatum will continue to have that question hang over him until he wins his first ring.
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1. Denver Nuggets
Why they can win the championship: Fit around Nikola Jokic
The Nuggets proved they had a championship formula last year by closing the playoffs on a 10-1 tear to secure their first title in franchise history. Nikola Jokic was heroic throughout the postseason run to solidify himself as the best basketball player in the world, but winning a ring also showed that Denver had the right pieces around him. Jamal Murray once again raised his level of play significantly in the playoffs, Aaron Gordon hit enough shots and was a perfect complement to Jokic defensively, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope proved to be the missing piece, and everyone else played their role. Everyone is back this year with the exception of Bruce Brown and Jeff Green, but it’s on the supporting cast to continue to match Jokic’s brilliance. If it happens, the Nuggets can be the first back-to-back champ since the Kevin Durant era Warriors.
Why they’ll fall short: Three-point shooting, Jamal Murray’s injuries
My big question for Denver coming into last year’s playoffs was if Murray was truly good enough to be the second best player on a title team. He definitively proved he was up for the challenge by taking his game to new heights in the playoffs for the second time in his career. This year Murray has been dealing with shin splints, and again failed to make the All-Star team for the first time in his career. If he’s healthy, Murray has shown he gets better in big moments when other players get tight. His ability to raise his level of play again will be paramount to Denver’s repeat chances. Aaron Gordon rediscovering his jump shot would also be a big benefit to Denver. Gordon hit 34.7 percent of his threes in the regular season and 39.1 percent of his threes in the playoffs last year. This season, Gordon is making just 29.6 percent from three. He needs to be able to punish defenses for refusing to guard him on the perimeter. Shooting is a real problem for Denver this year, with the team only No. 29 in three-point rate and No. 15 in three-point percentage. The Nuggets just need to hit shots and let Jokic take care of the rest.
