Kirk Cousins to Falcons rumors make sense, but would still be risky

Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s breakdown the Kirk Cousins to the Falcons rumors in NFL free agency.

The biggest offensive chip to fall during the first wave of free agency this offseason is bound to be Minnesota Vikings QB Kirk Cousins. With his contract having a no-trade clause and no-tag clause, the Vikings and Cousins have to come to a deal or his time in Minnesota is up. The major holdup in the Minnesota and Cousins talks is the guaranteed money. Last offseason, the Vikings and Cousins had an opportunity to get a long term deal done but the guaranteed money is where the talks ended.

One team that continuously pops up as a potential Kirk Cousins destination is the Atlanta Falcons. Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk, among many others, has reported that the potential of a Cousins move to Atlanta is on the horizon for both parties.

After hiring former Los Angeles Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris and former Rams passing game coordinator Zac Robinson to be Atlanta’s offensive coordinator, the potential for a Shanahan-style QB to enter Atlanta and have instant success is there. Atlanta already has young weapons like RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts make the game easy for any QB. For Cousins, the fit is incredibly simple.

While he has the Achilles injury that took him out of 2023, Cousins had the best year of his career while playing under Vikings head coach/playcaller Kevin O’Connell, who came from the Los Angeles Rams. In Atlanta some of the verbiage would remain the same as what Cousins would have in Minnesota, and he would have the opportunity to instantly contend in a division that is once again, up for grabs. In addition, Cousins would more than likely get the security that Minnesota might not give him, contract-wise. The guaranteed money Atlanta could offer would possibly exceed the amount Minnesota gives, and that would make it difficult for Minnesota to match anything. His wife is from Alpharetta, GA which is about 30 minutes outside of Atlanta. That could also be a major factor here.

On the flip side, the prospect of signing Cousins for the Falcons could carry some risk. At 35 years old, Cousins is coming off a major Achilles injury. While sports science has made major strides in recent years, the premise of signing an older QB to major guaranteed money coming off a major injury always carries some risk. Cousins is a great QB who can immediately raise the floor of an offense, but it’ll be difficult to pay that money to Cousins if he doesn’t fully recover from the injury. In addition, while Cousins has improved his play a lot under O’Connell, it’s worth asking how high the ceiling is for a Cousins-led Falcon team. Signing Cousins means the goal is to be serious contenders, and can Cousins do that at this age coming off an injury?

If the rumors are real, then the Falcons seem to have the inside track to signing Cousins. Where that goes, we’ll have to wait for free agency to begin to see.