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Rams in? Panthers winning the south at 7-10? How about the ENTIRE AFC North making it?
This has been the most unpredictable NFL season in recent memory. On a macro level we’ve seen the Eagles rise, the Rams fall, the Seahawks defy expectations, and the Broncos epically fail to meet their goals. This carried into a week-to-week basis, making the 2022 regular season impossible to accurately predict.
Now, with three games left, the playoff picture is wide open. As it stands we have 10 open spots to be claimed, and 23 different teams who still have a path into the postseason. With it being this up-and-down we could have absolute anarchy to close out the year and if you’re a fan of unbridled chaos, here’s how we get there.
The chaos lover’s guide to the AFC
Step 1: Indianapolis wins the AFC South
There’s something in the water when it comes to the NFL’s southern divisions in football this season with both the AFC and NFC being mired in absolute mediocrity. Despite being 4-9-1 right now, the Colts can still win the AFC South is a series of chaotic events go their way.
To be fair, the odds of what I’m about to lay out are EXTREMELY low, but chaos doesn’t need the numbers on its side — just an opportunity.
Colts win their remaining three games (Chargers, Giants, Texans)
Jaguars beat the Jets, lose to the Texans, tying with the Titans to close out the year
Titans lose to the Texans and Cowboys, tying with the Jaguars to close out the year
This would lock the Colts, Jaguars and Titans at 7-9-1 each with the conference record tiebreaker deciding the winner. This would have the Colts at 6.5, the Jaguars at 6.5 and the Titans at 5.5. So we’d then to go tiebreaker 2, inside the AFC South itself — where Indy and Jacksonville would be tied again at 2.5. Finally the deadlock is broken with tiebreaker No. 3, strength of victory, where the Colts would edge out the Jaguars by a margin of .496 to .477.
Easily the most chaotic outcome possible.
Step 2: The AFC North somehow gets four teams into the playoffs
This requires a dozen moving parts to see happen — but it’s too funny not to embrace the stupidity. In this scenario the Dolphins and Chargers fall out of the playoffs all together, with every other potential bubble team that’s not in the AFC North also failing to make it.
Here’s the Cliff’s Notes version of what we need to see for chaos to ensure:
Browns beat the Saints and Commanders, tying with the Steelers
Steelers beat the Raiders, trying with the Ravens and Browns
Ravens can do anything, but must tie with Steelers
Bengals can do anything
Dolphins and Chargers lose out
Patriots and Jets win no more than one game in their final three
To add to the chaos lets have the Ravens beat the Bengals, winning the AFC North with a 10-6-1 record. Cincinnati finishes second at 10-7. The Browns make it in with 8-8-1 and the Steelers are in at 8-7-2. Numerous teams on the bubble miss out by finishing 8-9.
The chaos AFC playoff matchups
First round bye: Buffalo Bills (1)
Pittsburgh Steelers (7) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (2)
Cleveland Browns (6) vs. Baltimore Ravens (3)
Cincinnati Bengals (5) vs. Indianapolis Colts (4)
The chaos lover’s guide to the NFC
Step 1: The Panthers win the NFC South, and Tom Brady goes home
This is simultaneously the dumbest possible outcome, and the easiest potential path in the NFC. Despite being 5-9 Carolina makes the playoffs if they win their final three games, regardless of whatever anyone else in the NFC South does.
Anyone can still win the NFC South, but Carolina is by far the funniest potential champion. This is a team that fired its head coach, traded its best offensive player, was on the path to tanking — then got much better under interim coach Steve Wilks and now has a chance to win their division with a losing record.
Let’s make this a step stupider though. If every team in the NFC South loses in Week 16, the Panthers can still make the playoffs if they beat Tampa Bay and New Orleans to close out the season. This would give them a final record of 7-10 as division champions.
Step 2: The Rams make the playoffs
Any machinations of the Rams winning back-to-back Super Bowls went out the window weeks ago, but there’s still a path where this 4-9 team makes the playoffs.
Rams win out (Packers, Broncos, Chargers, Seahawks)
Commanders lose out (49ers, Browns, Cowboys)
Seahawks lose out (Chiefs, Jets, Rams)
Lions lose out (Panthers, Bears, Packers)
This would cause the Rams not only to finish with an 8-9 record on the year, better than the NFC South winning Panthers.
The chaos NFC playoff matchups
First round bye: Philadelphia Eagles (1)
Los Angeles Rams (7) vs. Minnesota Vikings (2)
New York Giants (6) vs. San Francisco 49ers (3)
Dallas Cowboys (5) vs. Carolina Panthers (4)
