John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
After Charles Leclerc’s stunning win in the Monaco Grand Prix, is F1 on the cusp of a true title fight?
What a difference a year makes.
Following the 2023 Canadian Grand Prix, the eighth race of the 2023 Formula 1 season, two things were clear: Absent a shocking development, Red Bull was winning the Constructors’ Championship, and Max Verstappen was winning the Drivers’ Championship. As the grid departed Montreal, Red Bull led the field with 321 points on the year, 154 points clear of second-place Mercedes. On the Drivers’ Championship side of the ledger, Verstappen had 195 points in his account, 69 points ahead of teammate Sergio Pérez.
At this point a year ago Fernando Alonso was third in the Drivers’ standings with 117 points, 78 points behind Verstappen.
Last weekend’s Monaco Grand Prix was the eighth race of the 2024 F1 season, and with 24 races on the calendar this year we are now one-third of the way through the campaign. This gives us a great time to take stock of where the season stands, and where it might be heading.
Perhaps to a title fight?
Because the current F1 standings on both the Drivers’ side of the ledger, and the Constructors’ side of the ledger, indicate that we may very well be in for a title fight. Over on the Constructors’ Championship, Ferrari’s dominant weekend in Monaco — coupled with a P6 from Verstappen and a DNF from Pérez — saw the Scuderia take a big step forward in Red Bull’s direction. As things stand now in the Constructors’ Championship, Red Bull still is in the lead with 276 points, but they lead Ferrari by just 24 points.
As for third-place McLaren, they have 184 points on the young season, 92 points behind Red Bull. Meaning that after eight races in 2024, the third-place team is closer to Red Bull at the front than the second-place team at this juncture in 2023.
A similar scenario is playing out in the Drivers’ Championship. Charles Leclerc’s victory in Monaco — breaking years of heartbreak in his home race — saw the Ferrari driver take a big step closer towards Verstappen. As things sit right now Verstappen is in first with 169 points, 31 points ahead of Leclerc who is in second with 138. Lando Norris sits third with 113 points on the season.
Beyond the standings is the sentiment we are hearing from drivers and teams. A year ago competitors realized that the gap to Red Bull and Verstappen at the front was just too much, and in many ways they were hoping for another car to challenge him with or intervention via weather or another event.
Now teams such as McLaren and Ferrari truly feel they can challenge Red Bull week-to-week, and that if they put pressure on Verstappen and Red Bull, mistakes may follow.
This was the message from Ferrari Team Principal Fred Vasseur in Miami, moments after Lando Norris captured the Miami Grand Prix. Speaking to the media including SB Nation in Ferrari’s hospitality space, Vasseur talked about the closing gap, and putting Red Bull under threat.
“What is true is that compared to one year ago, when we are able to do a good job and to put everything together, we are there. It means that we are putting [Red Bull] a little bit under pressure. They have to take to be a bit more aggressive with the strategy,” said Vasseur in Miami.”
“They are not anymore in the comfort zone of last year when last year that doesn’t matter what’s happened after lap two, they were in front and it’s, I think it’s a game changer in the management of the rice,” added the Ferrari boss. ”And this, it’s an opportunity for us because that if we are doing another small step, I think that we will be really in a position to fight with them every single weekend.”
The Ferrari boss mirrored those comments in Monaco.
“I don’t want to draw any conclusions on this weekend, but if you have a look on the last two or three weekends, I think Max made more mistakes in Imola or went out more in Imola than over the last three seasons,” said Vasseur following Leclerc’s win in Monte Carlo.
“I think that as soon as they have to push more, if you stay in your comfort zone for the strategy, you don’t do mistakes and I think they were in this situation. Now we don’t have to draw any conclusion that I think they will be back, they will be back soon and they will be strong,” added Vasseur. “I’m not considering at all that everything will be easy until the end.”
Ferrari’s other driver, Carlos Sainz Jr., echoed that sentiment in the post-race FIA Press Conference.
“I think my common sense tells me that on normal tracks Red Bull should still be favorites. Domination, like we were seeing, hopefully not. But favorites, yes. And then it will be a very tight fight with both McLaren and us,” said Sainz. “I think we are all three at a very similar level. Our last reference of a normal track is Imola and Miami. And if I see those two tracks, we seem to be half a tenth behind McLaren and maybe a tenth or two behind Red Bull.
“And yeah, it still means that that any small progress, any small upgrade, any small thing that we bring to the car might switch it to a potential race victory or a winning car. Monaco, we’ve always been strong,” added the Ferrari driver. “Street circuits like Singapore and last year in Monaco, it shows the strengths of the Ferrari. And at the same time, being within 24 points of the Red Bull in the Constructors’, you see that when you put them under pressure yesterday, Max did a mistake in Q3 run two, Checo was out in Q1. We all just need to be there, you know, to show that these things can happen to Red Bull too. And yesterday is the best example.”
Later in the press conference, Sainz elaborated on that point, noting that the gap has tightened since the start of the 2024 campaign.
“I think Ferrari we will have our opportunities in these sort of tracks. I think McLaren will have their opportunities, but when I talk about a normal track we can talk about maybe a Barcelona. Canada, I think is quite specific but a Barcelona or any European truck, where I consider it to be a normal track, I still think Red Bull will be favorites, but I don’t think they’ll dominate like they used to do,” continued Sainz. “And I think that’s good news for the championship. And it’s just worth being within a tenth or two in quali, that even if they’re favorites, they cannot afford to do any mistakes. And that’s where both Ferrari and McLaren, we can capitalise, which is a position that in Bahrain Race 1, no one was there to be there.”
For his part Oscar Piastri, who finished second in Monaco, shared the sentiment that the gap is tighter than it has been in recent memory.
“I think so,” said Piastri when asked at the FIA Press Conference if McLaren has a chance to win each week. “I think it’s been three very different circuits in the past three races, and we’ve been competitive at all of them. Miami was probably one of our worst circuits before this year. Imola has always been kind to us, but we had a very strong weekend there, and here’s been … let’s say our car’s never been the strongest in the slow corners, and this weekend we’ve been very quick again.
“So I think we can be confident wherever we go. I feel like we don’t have to rely on the high-speed circuits like we did last year to get our results, which is a very exciting thing to have going forward. And, yeah, I think the pecking order is as tight as it’s ever been, especially this weekend,” added Piastri. “Going into qualifying, I think we thought that there could be any one of four teams on pole, which I don’t think we’ve been able to say for a while. So, I think we can definitely be in the fight every weekend.”
Obviously, there is a long way to go this season: 16 Grand Prix weekends, to be exact. Red Bull and Verstappen will certainly do their best to respond. However, there may be some hurdles along the way. The massive opening-lap crash that swallowed up Pérez is proving to be an expensive proposition for the team, with Red Bull Senior Advisor Dr. Helmut Marko noting that the damage could be in the $2 to $3 million range.
That could, potentially, hamper their in-season development due to the cost cap.
For his part, Red Bull Team Principal Christian Horner is preaching patience. “We already expected this to be a difficult weekend for us, but it is clear that we need to improve in a certain area,” Horner said to the media following the Monaco Grand Prix. “It’s not that we suddenly have a bad car. We now get Montreal, Barcelona, Austria and Silverstone. Let’s see where we stand after that. It’s a marathon, not a sprint, and we’re still leading in both championships.”
But Horner concedes that their two closest pursuers are “competitive” at the moment.
“Ferrari and McLaren are certainly competitive, but there is still a long way to go,” added Horner. “It is true that Max was not happy, after qualifying he spent a long time with the engineers on Saturday evening trying to solve things for the future.”
Both McLaren and Ferrari believe not just that they are competitive, but that they can continue to put pressure on Red Bull in coming weeks. Verstappen and company do not have the same massive margin for error they did a season ago, where a bad qualifying day can still see one or both Red Bulls rocket to the front.
Now, a mistake or two on Saturday or even during the race itself opens the door to both McLaren and Ferrari.
Paving the way for a potential fight the likes we have not seen in recent years.
