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This could very well be the season where Detroit’s ace puts it all together for a gem of a season.
The past 10 seasons for the Detroit Tigers has been a bit of a journey in the wilderness. The 2014 season ended up being the end of an era for the Tigers, as their four-year run of playoff appearances from 2011 through 2014 ended with two ALCS appearances and an American League Pennant victory in 2012. Once that window closed for Detroit, it slammed shut and outside of one winning season in 2016 that saw the Tigers come up three games short of earning a Wild Card spot, there hasn’t been much to get excited about for fans of the hometown team in the Motor City.
As of right now, the Tigers have a tough road ahead of them if they’re planning on returning to October baseball. They’re a distant fourth in the AL Central with their divisional rivals Kansas City and Minnesota currently occupying two of the three Wild Card spots in the AL. They are 33-35 and 3.5 games behind in the race for the final and are currently lumped in with the Astros, Rangers and Blue Jays when it comes to owning similar winning percentages. This is a long season with plenty of peaks and valleys but Detroit still a bit of an outside contender at this point – FanGraphs’ playoff odds is giving the Tigers a 12 percent shot at making the Postseason as a Wild Card with their overall odds of making the playoffs in general at 15 percent.
Needless to say, the Tigers aren’t exactly the favorites to upset the apple cart in baseball this season. With that being said, there’s one very good reason to pay attention to what Detroit has going on this season and that’s the mound exploits of Tarik Skubal. Skubal is coming off of a 2022 season that saw him establish himself as a bonafide major league starter with an ERA- of 90 and a FIP- of 75 over 117.2 innings. He followed that up by emerging as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball despite missing the first three months of the 2023 season due to a flexor tendon injury that ended his 2022 campaign. Once Skubal did finally return to the mound on July 4, 2023, he hit the ground running and wasted no time in establishing himself as a true ace. When I say that he was one of the best pitchers in baseball last season, I mean it – Skubal led all pitchers in fWAR with 3.3 after he returned to the mound, with Spencer Strider in second place after he produced 2.8 fWAR over that same span.
With all this in mind, it really shouldn’t come as a surprise that Tarik Skubal has emerged as a Cy Young candidate now that he’s been fully healthy here in 2024. As good as Skubal was to finish the 2023 season, he’s been even better this season. Skubal finished 2023 with an ERA- of 65 and a FIP- of 47 and both of those numbers are well above average when it comes to starting pitchers. He’s on track to leave those numbers in the dust here in 2024, as he’ll be heading into his start tonight against the Astros with an ERA- of 49 and a FIP- of 54. He’ll also be heading into Houston coming off of his most recent start where he made it through 6.2 innings with five hits and two walks for a grand total of just one run allowed and 10 strikeouts to boot. It was also the 11th time in 13 starts this season where the 27-year-old lefty gave up two runs or less. Needless to say, this man has been absolutely dealing all season.
What makes Tarik Skubal so incredibly tough to deal with is the fact that he’s got five pitches in his bag of tricks and batters have zero idea as to how to actually consistently hit his stuff. His best pitch has been his four-seam fastball and it’s a pitch that has slowly-but-surely been ramping up in velocity over the course of his career. He may have finally peaked in velocity in his most recent start, where he hit 101.7 mph on the radar gun. As this article from Jason Beck of MLB.com mentioned, it was one of the fastest pitches thrown by a starter this season and it was part of a deliberate effort on his part to ramp up his velocity on his heater. With that being said, it’s not just his fastball that hitters have to worry about. His sinker has been sitting at 96 mph – the same speed as his average fastball. Hitters have been bewitched by both pitches, as evidenced by the opposition batting average of .205 against his sinker and .169 against his fastball.
Opposing hitters haven’t fared well against his other three pitches, either. His changeup is his second-most used pitch behind his fastball and hitters are only hitting .223 against it. He also has a slider that he’s commonly used and it only has a .194 batting average against it. Finally, he’s thrown 57 knuckle curveballs this season and you are not going to find a video of anybody getting a hit against it so far in 2024. That’s right: The opposing batting average against his knuckle curve is .000. Granted, it does have an Expecting Batting Average of .243 but the good news for Skubal is that that xBA is by far the highest of any of his four pitches – his fastball has an xBA of .205, his changeup’s xBA is at .219, the sinker is at .191 and the slider’s xBA is microscopic at .161. Simply put, it hasn’t really mattered what Tarik Skubal has been throwing out there – opposing hitters have had an absolute devil of a time trying to deal with any one of them.
If Skubal needs to miss a bat, his changeup (45 percent whiff rate) and slider (35 percent whiff rate) have been his go-to in that regard. If he needs an out, any one of his four main pitches will do as his highest Put Away percentage lies at 31 percent with his changeup while the lowest of those four pitches is 21 percent with his four-seamer. He’s got nasty stuff in his arsenal and he’s throwing all of his pitches with a ton of confidence at the moment. Taking all of this into account, it’s easy to understand why he’s starting to get attention and even early talks of Cy Young Award contention here in June.
There are also surely some rumors floating around that Tarik Skubal could be traded at the deadline but those rumors appear to simply be rumors. Either way, Skubal isn’t the type of pitcher that should be traded if you’re a team that still harbors any type of playoff hopes. Jim Bowden of The Athletic stated that while the Tigers may listen to offers on the likes of Jack Flaherty, Skubal’s going nowhere.
Again, while the Tigers aren’t exactly near the top of the standings, they still figure to be right in the middle of the pack when it comes to the Wild Card chase and as long as that’s the case, Skubal should remain in a Tigers uniform. If the Tigers are going to return to Postseason relevancy in the near future, then that likely requires having Skubal still in a Tigers uniform while they make their return to October. Detroit has a gem at the top of their rotation and this could very well be the season where the entire baseball world becomes extremely aware of Tarik Skubal and what he can do on the mound.
