Analytics predicts winners for NFL playoff Divisional Round games

NFL Divisional round: We already know who wins because DVOA says so

The opening round of the NFL playoffs was anything but “wild” despite the Wild Card moniker for the round. Every game but one finished with a double-digit victory. The Washington Commanders edged out the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-20 to give general NFL fans something exciting to experience.

In a lot of ways, the start of the NFL playoffs mirrored that of the start of the College Football Playoffs. The pros now hope they can have some of the fireworks we saw in the next rounds of the CFP.

The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs seems ripe to do just that. There are x-factors galore around the NFC, the Baltimore Ravens have created a menace on offense and are preparing to battle the Buffalo Bills in a “kaiju fight” in the AFC while the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs take the field against a very good defense that could give them trouble.

That is barely the half of it as RB Saquon Barkley attempts to carry the Philadelphia Eagles against a team with championship-tested mettle, rookie QB Jayden Daniels looks to put a nail in the (very injured) Detroit Lions dream season and so much more.

Last week, we once again unveiled our analytics prediction for the NFL playoffs. Despite being perfect in 2023’s Wild Card round, the 2025 version didn’t go as well. Just three of our six predictions ended up correct but that won’t stop us from continuing to use DVOA, a metric that breaks down the quality of play compared to the league average while adjusting for the strength of the opponents being played, to try to help predict the Divisional Round.

DVOA is one of a couple of catch-all analytics measures that help us understand the beautiful game of football better.

Attempting to predict the results of these games, when the best are playing the best, is difficult. Bettors on FanDuel, and FanDuel themselves, are looking for every morsel of information to help make their predictions.

Interestingly, the two teams that earned the top seeds and bye in their conference were not the top overall DVOA team during the regular season. For the second year in a row, that honor went to the Baltimore Ravens with a 41.4% Total DVOA, down from 45.5% last year. The Detroit Lions are second overall at 34.8% while the Kansas City Chiefs are all the way down at eight at 14.7%

To be clear, DVOA isn’t perfect nor would it claim to predict the winners of certain games. Too many variables that cannot be codified, like weather, injuries, officiating and more, can play a role in a one-game sample.

While DVOA only batted .500 in the Wild Card round, let us take a look at what it predicts for the Divisional Round.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans

• Overall DVOA: Kansas City 8th vs Houston 16th
• Offensive DVOA: Kansas City 8th vs Houston 26th
• Defensive DVOA: Kansas City 12th vs Houston 3rd

Edge: Chiefs – The defending champs versus the surprise coming out of the AFC Wild Card round. As noted above, the Texans defense can make things difficult on Patrick Mahomes but, based on the data, Kansas City should make it to the AFC Championship game once again.

Detriot Lions vs Washington Commanders

• Overall DVOA: Detroit 2nd vs Washington 10th
• Offensive DVOA: Detroit 3rd vs Washington 6th
• Defensive DVOA: Detroit 5th vs Washington 23rd

Edge: Lions – One of the potential flaws in analytics predictions is the inability to fully account for injuries. For Detroit, along with Daniels’ uncanny ability as a rookie, injuries are the biggest concern that could harpoon their amazing season. The data says the Lions should comfortably win this week, however.

Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles

• Overall DVOA: Los Angeles 17th vs Philadelphia 5th
• Offensive DVOA: Los Angeles 10th vs Philadelphia 13th
• Defensive DVOA: Los Angeles 26th vs Philadelphia 1st

Edge: Eagles – Besides injuries, another variable that cannot be captured is championship experience. The Rams limped through the season but looked like contenders in the Wild Card round. If that LA team shows up this week, Philadelphia will have all they can handle. If the one that built the worst DVOA of any playoff team throughout the regular season is on the field, the Eagles should roll to victory.

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills

• Overall DVOA: Baltimore 1st vs Buffalo 4th
• Offensive DVOA: Baltimore 1st vs Buffalo 2nd
• Defensive DVOA: Baltimore 6th vs Buffalo 11th

Edge: Ravens – The data says what everyone already knows: This game should be exciting. The biggest difference comes on the defensive side of the ball where Buffalo has had to tape together a quality unit all season long. Lamar Jackson needs at least one more victory to get his playoff failures off his back while Josh Allen might need to knock off Mahomes before he gets the credit he is due. The Ravens have the edge here in a game that should be the highlight of the weekend.

DVOA was far from perfect to start the NFL playoffs but the data provides another piece of information as you make betting decisions, discuss the playoffs with your coworkers or make daily fantasy decisions.

We are excited to see the games played on the field and see whether or not DVOA is able to do a better job this week than it did last week in predicting the games.