Here are our picks for the men’s and women’s Final Four.
We are down to the last eight teams in college basketball.
Over the next few days both the Men’s Final Four and the Women’s Final Four will unfold in the heart of Texas. How do our writers see these games playing out? Let’s dive in.
Men’s Final Four
Florida Atlantic (9-seed) vs. San Diego State (5-seed)
During a meeting earlier this week, the conversation among the writers here at SBNation shifted to the men’s and the women’s Final Fours. When discussing the men’s side of things, and in particular San Diego State, our own JP Acosta had this to say about the Aztecs: “They’re Tennessee West.”
With JP having seen them in person, that carries some weight.
The comparison is apt. Both teams make you work so hard on the offensive end, fighting through screens, contesting on every shot, working on the defensive glass, that a game against either almost comes down to a matter of will.
But the, JP quickly reminded us.
FAU beat Tennessee.
The Owls can win in a number of ways, and despite the challenges they faced all season long, as JP told us, they never wavered. FAU faces yet another challenge this weekend, but I am now convinced. FAU wins. — Mark Schofield
So here’s the thing: When we get this far into the tournament metrics tend to matter less and less. There’s plenty of advanced statistics that show who is theoretically better, and who should be able to win — but the reality is that neither FAU or SDSU would be in the Final Four if games played out by the metrics.
Like Mark said, it feels like a battle of will, and I’m not going to cast any aspersions on who might “want it more,” because obviously making the National Championship matters immensely to everyone involved.
That said, there just feels something special about FAU. There’s a spark that I’m not sure any other remaining team has. You don’t beat Tennessee and Kansas State with luck, and I think the Owls have had the slightly tougher road to get to this point. They passed their biggest tests in the tournament, and I have a hard time seeing this run end yet. FAU wins. — James Dator
I’m taking FAU to win for a few reasons:
San Diego State can’t score. The Aztecs have topped one point per possession just once in the tournament — against Furman. SDSU enters the Final Four ranked No. 75 in the country offensively. Yes, their defense is amazing, clearly the best of the four teams still standing. But at its core basketball is a game about buckets, and San Diego State struggles badly to get them.
Florida Atlantic is not a Cinderella, not really. The Owls have a 7’1 big man on the inside in Vlad Goldin. They have very good guard play, led by 6’4 sophomore Johnell Davis. They take and make a lot of threes but don’t necessarily live and die by the three ball. They are top-30 in efficiency on both ends of the floor. I just think FAU is the better, more complete team.
Finally:
Roll damn Owls. — Ricky O’Donnell
Miami (5-seed) vs. Connecticut (4-seed)
Miami has put together a great run to the Final Four. The Hurricanes have one of the most efficient offenses in the nation, ranking fifth in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency. While other teams in the Final Four look to what they do on the defensive end as their calling card, Miami overwhelms you with points, and sometimes — as pointed out by our own Ricky O’Donnell — the other team just misses.
Unfortunately, that might not be enough this weekend. They’re facing a Connecticut team that is perhaps even better on the offensive end, as the Huskies are currently third in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency. Beyond that, Connecticut poses a tough matchup for Miami on the defensive end, as the Huskies rank 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
All season long, the Huskies have found different ways to win. They can win in a shootout, as they did at the end of February when they beat St. John’s by a final score of 95-86. They can win by overwhelming you with points, as they did in their 23-point win over Arkansas a few days ago. And if they need to, they can win in a slugfest, as they did against Creighton at the start of January (69-60) or against Georgetown at the start of February (68-62).
Those different ways to win will help Connecticut this weekend. Huskies win. — Mark Schofield
This is going to be a really fascinating game to watch, particularly in the paint. UConn’s focal center Adama Sanogo is arguably the best player left in the tournament, and Miami center Norchad Omier isn’t far behind. Both players are very similar in a lot of ways. Their body types are similar, their games are similar — Sanogo is a touch better offensively, while Omier is a little bit better of a defender. It’s going to be a slugfest between these two.
The question to me is whether or not the Huskies’ perimeter defense can stop Miami’s sharpshooting duo of Isaiah Wong and Nigel Pack. Both are snipers from downtown, particularly as Pack showed in the Sweet 16 when he was 7-10 from beyond the arc against Houston.
Top to bottom I do think UConn is the better team here. But there’s something lingering about Miami I just can’t shake. Jim Larrañaga has had his team playing well above their talent level during this tournament, and it just feels like this might be their year. So I’m picking that we wind up with an all-Florida game in the National Championship. Canes win. — James Dator
I’m going with UConn for a few reasons.
How is Miami’s defense going to stop UConn from scoring? Miami somehow reached the Final Four with the No. 104 defense in the country. Yes, the Hurricanes’ offense can scoot — they’re No. 5 in the country — but UConn’s offense scores even more efficiently, entering at No. 3 in America. UConn’s No. 11 defense should be able to hold up a bit against Miami’s high-powered offense. I don’t see how Miami’s defense can hold up against UConn’s offense.
Adama Sanogo feels like a matchup nightmare for Miami. The Hurricanes win with small ball with no one taller than 6’7 in the regular rotation. Sanogo is listed at 6’9, 245 pounds, but feels like he plays even bigger on the inside. He can punish smaller defenders as a post scorer, as a roller, and on the offensive glass. Miami will try to draw him out on the other end, but I think Sanogo can hold his own against that spread-and-shred Hurricanes’ attack better than most centers. I expect him to have a huge night.
UConn is No. 2 in the country on the offensive glass. Miami is No. 180 in the country on the defensive glass. I’ll take my chances with UConn getting easy buckets over Miami needing to survive on difficult looks.
— Ricky O’Donnell
Women’s Final Four
March often comes down to guard play, and the Hokies’ run to their first Final Four has been spurred by great play from their backcourt.
A tremendous example comes from Virginia Tech’s win to get to the Final Four over Ohio State. Facing a team that thrived on full-court pressure, the Hokies broke down the Buckeyes’ press early in the game, creating some scoring chances. Ohio State eventually got out of their press, and Virginia Tech was able to play at their pace.
That same backcourt is now going to propel the Hokies to their first-ever National Championship game.
Junior Georgia Amoore leads that backcourt, as she put 24 on the board against the Buckeyes and has been their second-leading scorer all season. She also knocked down 20 triples over Virginia Tech’s first four games of the tournament, tying a women’s NCAA Tournament record. Fellow guards Kayana Traylor and Cayla King help the Hokies control the pace, and create opportunities for the team’s leading scorer, center Elizabeth Kitley. She averaged a double-double this season, and her double-double against the Buckeyes is yet more evidence that the Hokies have options all over the floor. LSU is a great team with some tremendously talented players, but the Hokies are for real. Virginia Tech wins. — Mark Schofield
I’ll take LSU for three reasons.
Angel Reese is the best player on the court. The 6’3 junior has put up monster numbers all year after transferring from Maryland — 23.2 points, 15.7 rebounds, nearly 10 attempts per game from the foul line. She’s a future top pick in the WNBA draft, and the Final Four is going to be her true coming out party for everyone who is still asleep.
Tigers freshman Flau’jae Johnson is a star. Not only is she the team’s third leading scorer, she raps, too.
Somehow, despite the presence of Bad Vibes Emperor Kim Mulkey as their head coach, the Tigers just seem to have certified Great Vibes most of the time. They are too big, too fast, and too cool for VT.
— Ricky O’Donnell
Iowa (2-seed) vs. South Carolina (1-seed)
Caitlin Clark is college basketball’s transcendent talent.
South Carolina is perhaps college basketball’s transcendent team.
The Gamecocks have one of the nation’s best offenses, averaging 80.5 ppg. They have one of the nation’s toughest defenses, allowing just 51.1 ppg, which is third-best in the country. They have the likely first-overall selection in the WNBA draft in forward Aliyah Boston. Last year’s National Player of the Year and the two-time Defensive Player of the Year averaged 13.2 ppg and 9.8 rpg this season, and while her numbers might have dipped a bit, that speaks more to the overall talent on this roster.
Guard Zia Cooke led South Carolina, averaging 15.1 ppg this year, and the team gets big contributions from Kamilla Cardoso (9.7 ppg) and Laeticia Amihere (7.1 ppg).
Add this all up, and you have a team that is riding a 42-game winning streak, and is winning games by an average of almost 30 points a contest. Iowa is a talented team, and Clark is an incredible player, but the Gamecocks are going to be too much. South Carolina wins. — Mark Schofield
I’ll go with South Carolina over Iowa for a few reasons:
Is Caitlin Clark even the best player in this game? The fact that it’s even up for debate gives me a lot of faith in the Gamecocks. While Clark took home national player of the year honors this year, South Carolina forward Aliyah Boston took home that same hardware last year. Boston is going to be the first pick in the 2023 WNBA Draft, and she’s an absolute star. While Clark gets so much attention in college hoops, Boston is every bit as good even if her game isn’t as flashy.
Iowa is extremely reliant on Clark to create everything. South Carolina has a much more egalitarian approach. Yes, Boston is a superstar, but she has plenty of help. Zia Cooke is a battle-tested point guard with Final Four experience already under her belt. Kamilla Cardoso is a two-way force as a 6’7 center. Brea Beal is a 40 percent three-point shooter. Laeticia Amihere gets it done on both ends. SC just has so much talent at Dawn Staley’s disposal.
South Carolina won the national title last season. It is undefeated this season. I’m not picking against that. — Ricky O’Donnell
College basketball national championship predictions
Men’s: UConn over Florida Atlantic — ROD
Women’s: South Carolina over LSU — ROD
Men’s: UConn over Florida Atlantic — Mark Schofield
Women’s: South Carolina over Virginia Tech — Mark Schofield
