Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers is perfect for everyone involved

Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images

This is a trade where EVERYONE won.

The San Francisco 49ers made a colossal upgrade on Thursday night, trading with the Panthers for running back Christian McCaffrey. It’s a move that pushes in the Niners’ chips in and tells the league they’re ready to make a run in the NFC, but it also helps this team in the future. Meanwhile, the Panthers amass draft assets the team needs to address its myriad issues, and expedite the organization’s rebuilding effort.

We’re conditioned to want a kneejerk reaction. To immediately claim that one team “won” a trade, and fleeced the other — but in the case of this trade it’s a truly beneficial move for both organizations, and a great opportunity for the player. Everyone won, and it’s not that difficult to see why.

McCaffrey makes the 49ers a major threat now, and in the future

In many ways the 49ers had become one of the most predictable teams in the NFL. They were going to destroy you on defense, struggle on offense, and largely needed to force turnovers to flip the field and win.

Christian McCaffrey changes that metric. The team now has a second player on offense (along with Deebo Samuel) who is a legitimate threat to score a touchdown whenever he touches the ball. That home run potential, both in the passing and run games will take pressure of the San Fran defense to make something happen on every series, while also giving the offense a player who can turn nothing into a positive play with the ball in his hands.

Don’t let the game logs fool you, because McCaffrey has been as good as ever this season. Despite having no quarterback to speak of, and an offensive line that’s middling at best, CMC still managed to average 112 all-purpose yards per game. He was the only bright spot on the Carolina offense, and with a better passer and line there’s no reason to doubt he can’t return to being one of the most impactful players in the NFL.

McCaffrey really didn’t get much of a chance to do his thing this season, and still performed. According to Pro Football Reference he only averaged 2.5 yards prior to contact this season, which is largely a statistic which evaluates OL blocking and push. This is terrible, especially for a speed back like McCaffrey, who really needs that first hole gap opened up so he can get into linebackers where his open field athleticism really shines.

If we look at current 49ers’ leading rusher Jeff Wilson the team has been doing an astonishing job blocking for him up front. He averages 3.7 yards before contact (YBC), one of the top figures in the entire NFL, but Wilson’s overall numbers have largely been fool’s gold. He’s averaged only 1.3 yards after contact, which is fine, but definitely shows that a lot of yards have been left on the table.

Meanwhile, McCaffrey lifted his yards after contact to 2.1, despite being swarmed on every down. If we assume the blocking numbers hold, it will push him into the stratosphere at 5.8 yards-per-carry, likely to be lifted more because there’s a direct correlation between big YBC numbers and overall yards-per-carry, especially when a player has a penchant for getting yards after contact.

In the passing game McCaffrey has been thriving despite dealing with Baker Mayfield’s incompetence. This season he’s caught a total of 43 passes, with an average of -0.5 yards before catch. Almost every pass went backwards to him, and he still managed to register 277 receiving yards, with a hilarious 294 yards of YAC as a result of catching behind the line of scrimmage on every down.

So, in totality you’re looking at a player who is getting:

A better quarterback
A better offensive line
Better playcalling
Better offensive supporting staff to split focus

When you get all that and you’re already averaging 112 yards-per-game there is absolutely no doubt that the 49ers are huge winners here. Furthermore, there’s value in trading for CMC as a block. Considering the Panthers were listening to offers, and looking at the needs of contenders around the NFL, it wouldn’t have been surprising to see the Rams, Chiefs, Dolphins or Bills from trying to make a deal.

By landing CMC the 49ers ensure their competition doesn’t get better in 2022, as well as giving them something for the future. If McCaffrey can stay healthy he will make Trey Lance’s life a lot easier in 2023, much as he did for Cam Newton in his prime. This is a running back who makes his quarterback’s life better, and there aren’t a lot that can be said about.

Huge win for the 49ers all around.

The Panthers got far more than they expected

Trading McCaffrey represents the first real sign that Carolina understands who they are, and they’re no longer lying to themselves. It’s refreshing, because delusion defined the Matt Rhule era. It was his fervent belief the Panthers were a QB away from competing, when all metrics showed that wasn’t the case. Now, they’re admitting it.

The deal will absolutely ensure the Panthers are not competitive at all in 2022 — which is good. Winning is antithetical to any rebuilding effort, and Carolina will now put itself in prime position to take the top quarterback in the 2023 draft, with a new coach calling the shots. As it stands that’s looking more and more like Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, who has everything the team is looking for.

If we assume the Panthers hold onto Brian Burns and D.J. Moore, which aren’t guarantees, but it would take a lot to get them from Carolina, the team already has important playmakers at a few key positions. The picks acquired for San Francisco, paired with their good draft position will give this team ammunition to get high-quality players to improve their roster and multiple positions.

The return the Panthers got, in the middle of a fire sale, was massive. Four picks, including two Day 2 picks in 2023 is far more beneficial than a single 1st rounder for a team in need of talent upgrades at a lot of positions. It also indicates there might have been a bidding war behinds the scenes, which is remarkable for a running back who has missed a lot of time due to injury and on a large contract.

This deal truly expedites Carolina’s rebuild, which makes it a huge win for them.

It gives McCaffrey a chance to win a ring

There is absolutely no way Christian McCaffrey would have had a chance to compete for a Super Bowl in Carolina, this year, or in any future year. The most glowing possible outcome is that the Panthers master a rebuild, take 2-3 years to make a run back to the playoffs, at which point McCaffrey is at the point of slowing down — and that’s the best case scenario they probably don’t hit.

This is one of those trades that’s really beneficial to the player. McCaffrey returns to NorCal, an area he’s intimately familiar with from going to Stanford. He goes to a team with an established offense that will let him thrive, and he can immediately plug into the system and be a threat.

Getting traded to the Niners is a huge win for McCaffrey, who can now get back to becoming one of the best running backs in the NFL on a team that can use him.

Everyone wins

It’s rare to see a deal this spectacularly even on all sides. The 49ers gave up a lot of picks, sure — but they also have more than they know what do with thanks to compensatory picks from the Mike McDaniel hiring, with more to come if DeMeco Ryans becomes a head coach.

The Panthers got assets they desperately needed, while also making a feel-good move by freeing a player from their rebuild who didn’t deserve to go through it.

Christian McCaffrey gets to win again, and goes to a team that can use him.

Everyone involved gets an A+, and there’s no need to bend over backwards to try and find someone who lost this deal. It’s brilliant all around.