Photo by Clive Mason – Formula 1/Formula 1 via Getty Images
Upgrades deferred, the importance of qualifying, and other storylines to watch in this week’s Monaco Grand Prix
After an unplanned week off, thanks to the cancellation of the 2023 Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, Formula 1 is back this week. The destination? The streets of Monaco and Monte Carlo for the Monaco Grand Prix.
Considered the “Crown Jewel” of the F1 season, Monaco combines glitz and glamor with some of the most iconic settings in the sport. While Monaco does not offer much in the way of overtaking — more on that in a moment — the street course does offer iconic scenes such as the Casino Square turn, which takes drivers around the Monte Carlo Casino, and the famous Grand Hotel Hairpin, which is the slowest turn on the F1 schedule. Drivers will navigate that section of the track at speeds around 30 miles per hour.
Here are the major storylines to watch this week.
Upgrades, deferred
Coming into what was to be the first tripleheader of the 2023 F1 season, the main storyline was this: Upgrades. Many teams, including Ferrari, Aston Martin, McLaren, and Mercedes pointed to the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix as the spot where they would bring some upgrades to their various challengers, and try and push Red Bull from behind.
However, with weather forcing the cancellation of the Emilia Romagna GP, now teams are wondering if bringing expensive upgrades to a track like Monaco — where the risk of a crash is heightened — makes sense. For example, according to reports Ferrari has deferred a new suspension for the SF-23 to the Spanish Grand Prix the following week.
Mercedes, however, has indicated to various outlets that they will forge ahead with their planned upgrades to the W14 this week. What those upgrades — and perhaps their sidepods — look like are still anyone’s guess.
Monaco: The “Crown Jewel” of the F1 world
Monaco still holds a special place in the F1 world, and remains the sport’s “Crown Jewel.” Writing in the latest installment of Linkage magazine McLaren CEO Zak Brown had this to say about Monaco:
“But then, there is nowhere else quite like the Principality of Monaco.
“From the super-sized yachts in the harbour, to the famous Casino, the Tunnel and the sun-kissed Cote d’Azur, it’s a wonderful event that has a historical place on the Formula One calendar.
“Monaco is the ultimate driver challenge too, with the unrelenting Armco walls lining the side of the tortuous track.
“One mistake and it’s all over.”
Its unique layout, rich history, and margin for error — or lack thereof — make Monaco the Crown Jewel of F1. Add in the fact that perhaps more than half of the drivers on the grid live in Monaco, and you make it the one race that every driver wants to win.
Qualifying matters …
F1 fans know that most weeks, qualifying is a massive part of the ultimate story in the Grand Prix itself.
Monaco, however, takes that to the extreme.
Qualifying is everything in Monaco, given the layout of the track, the tight turns, and the lack of true opportunities to overtake in the race. According to this study from Keberz Engineering, which tracked the overtakes by circuit from 2017 through the 2022 season, Monaco is dead last on the F1 schedule, with an average of just four overtakes per race:
Keberz Engineering
Overtakes by Circuit 2017-2022
If you want to win at Monaco, you had better start near the front, if not on pole itself. In Monaco, qualifying truly matters.
… so do pit stops
However, Monaco is one of those rare tracks in F1 where pit stops can also make a huge difference. In the February 2023 edition of GP Racing magazine, Matt Kew looked at the fastest pitstops from the 2022 season to see which actually made a difference.
One of the most important? The stop on Lap 16 from Sergio Pérez, which lasted just 2.30 seconds. As described by Kew: “It was his earlier switch to intermediate tyres, plus the fumbled double-stack for Ferrari [more on that in a moment], which played a greater part in Pérez winning in Monaco. But, at least by gaining 0.4s over nearest threat Leclerc during the first round of pitstops, Red Bull was able to increase the pressure on its rival before Ferrari folded.
With overtaking on the circuit so difficult, making up ground in pit lane takes on greater importance in Monaco.
Can Charles Leclerc exorcise his hometown demons?
Charles Leclerc was born in Monaco, but he has yet to taste victory on his home streets. Worse still is the fact that his history on the streets of Monaco in F1 is a collection of mistakes, failures, and bitter heartbreak.
His first F1 race in Monaco came back in 2018, when he was driving for Sauber (now Alfa Romeo). Merely advancing to Q2 was an accomplishment for Leclerc, but his race ended early when a brake failure led to an accident.
The following year, Leclerc came to Monaco with Ferrari and was considered a potential favorite for the Monaco Grand Prix. However, a strategic blunder during qualifying — the team thought his posted time would be good enough for him to advance to Q2, only for him to be nipped by the bulk of the field at the end of the session — saw him start near the back of the field.
In the race itself, Leclerc was working through the pack but contact with Nico Hülkenberg caused enough damage to his right rear tyre that he was forced to retire.
COVID-19 resulted in the cancellation of the 2020 Monaco Grand Prix, but when the field returned for the 2021 GP, Leclerc was again considered a favorite. He advanced to Q3 and his initial time in the third session put him on the provisional pole. Trying to improve his time with a later run, however, backfired spectacularly. Leclerc crashed hard near the swimming pool, which drew out a red flag. The red flag kept him on pole, but he would not start the race, as the team discovered a driveshaft field that ended his 2021 Monaco Grand Prix before it began.
Last season was perhaps his best chance to win at home, as Leclerc was strong in all three qualifying sessions and began on pole. However, enter one of the more recent strategic blunders from the Scuderia. On Lap 21 Leclerc was running third, and was told to pit to change from wet tyres to a set of slicks. After he started down pit lane, he was then told to stay out, but having committed to box, he had no choice but to come in.
That led to this brutal moment caught by his on-board camera. Note: Put earmuffs on any kiddos in the room before playing this clip, and maybe don’t play it at work:
Leclerc ended up in fourth.
How bad is his luck in Monaco? Consider this. Last May Leclerc was taking part in an historic event for the Monaco Grand Prix, and was behind the wheel of Niki Lauda’s 1974 Ferrari 312B3 in a run around the circuit.
The brakes on that vehicle —which Lauda used to qualify on pole for the 1974 Monaco Grand Prix and drove to a fourth-place finish in the Drivers’ standings that year — failed and Leclerc lost the rear, backing into the barriers at Turn 17, the famous La Rascasse corner.
Leclerc managed to poke some fun at himself, and his bad luck in Monaco, on social media after the crash:
When you thought you already had all the bad luck of the world in Monaco and you lose the brakes into rascasse with one of the most iconic historical Ferrari Formula 1 car.
— Charles Leclerc (@Charles_Leclerc) May 15, 2022
Will Sergio Pérez remain King of the Streets?
Since joining Red Bull, Sergio Pérez has five victories, all of which have come on street circuits.
Could he be in line for a sixth?
It was Pérez who emerged victorious in the wet conditions a year ago, thanks in part to the strategic blunder from Ferrari as outlined above. However, the stakes are a bit different this year, as Pérez is currently just 14 points behind teammate Max Verstappen in the Drivers’ standings.
If Checo manages to remain the King of the Streets and emerge victorious in Monaco, it would go a long way towards turning this into a true title fight, and not the Verstappen coronation many are expecting over the rest of the season.
Can Leclerc — or anyone — threaten Red Bull?
Fans hoping to see some pressure applied to Red Bull might have this race circled on the calendar.
The reasons? One is the layout of the course. Monaco is just one of three circuits with a single DRS zone, coming out of Turn 19 and through the start/finish line. Red Bull has been so dominant this year with DRS that it might not matter, but the presence of just the single DRS zone could place some limitations on their success this week.
The other is the fact that qualifying, as outlined above, is the ballgame on the Monte Carlo streets. Teams such as Ferrari this year have shown impressive one-lap pace, which is essential for qualifying, but taken a step back on Sundays due to a lack of race pace.
But on a track where overtaking is at a minimum — the 2003 Monaco Grand Prix did not see a single overtake — starting up front is essential. That could open the door for a team to nip Red Bull in qualifying, and stay up front on Sunday.
Provided everything else that can breaks their way.
